880
closed trades
37%
win rate
-3444.53
total pnl ($)
0.250
weight
7d window — n=151 wr=44% pnl=-166.45
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 15:31:38 (23.2d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
strategies_batch_xv_funding_wide_tail_siblings
n: 821
· wr: 41.3%
· total_bps: -11421.9
· mean_bps: -13.91
· sharpe: -0.10
· max_dd_bps: -13541.1
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 19:32 | NEAR | Sell | 1.81455→1.84048 | -22.72 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 19:09 | INJ | Buy | 4.71998→4.82649 | +32.49 | take_profit |
| 06-26 18:04 | ATOM | Sell | 1.5943→1.61721 | -22.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 14:00 | ARB | Buy | 0.0714179→0.0729718 | +31.25 | take_profit |
| 06-26 13:55 | SUI | Buy | 0.673688→0.688328 | +31.19 | take_profit |
| 06-26 12:40 | APT | Buy | 0.588847→0.580464 | -22.67 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 10:01 | ATOM | Buy | 1.6139→1.6014 | -13.05 | timeout |
| 06-26 06:46 | APT | Buy | 0.588147→0.60085 | +31.05 | take_profit |
| 06-26 02:16 | LTC | Sell | 40.9488→40.026 | +32.46 | take_profit |
| 06-26 02:12 | ARB | Sell | 0.0733517→0.0717179 | +32.02 | take_profit |
| 06-26 02:12 | SUI | Sell | 0.685319→0.670478 | +31.12 | take_profit |
| 06-26 02:11 | AVAX | Sell | 6.22944→6.08892 | +32.46 | take_profit |
| 06-26 02:11 | ADA | Buy | 0.143296→0.141174 | -23.42 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 23:00 | ADA | Buy | 0.141725→0.143164 | +13.88 | timeout |
| 06-25 20:01 | XRP | Buy | 1.03596→1.03834 | +2.21 | timeout |
| 06-25 19:04 | ATOM | Sell | 1.62029→1.5833 | +32.86 | take_profit |
| 06-25 17:16 | AVAX | Buy | 6.11043→6.24844 | +32.61 | take_profit |
| 06-25 16:17 | APT | Sell | 0.585154→0.593445 | -22.62 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 15:14 | XRP | Buy | 1.03856→1.02403 | -22.32 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 14:33 | XRP | Buy | 1.02516→1.04724 | +30.97 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:42 | ADA | Buy | 0.147427→0.145291 | -23.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:40 | ADA | Buy | 0.147977→0.145891 | -22.52 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:39 | AVAX | Buy | 6.37109→6.28129 | -22.49 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 12:30 | NEAR | Sell | 1.90582→1.93275 | -22.55 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 12:17 | ADA | Buy | 0.149117→0.14698 | -22.88 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 11:55 | NEAR | Sell | 1.94501→1.90298 | +30.97 | take_profit |
| 06-25 11:40 | NEAR | Sell | 1.97081→1.92758 | +31.32 | take_profit |
| 06-25 11:08 | ADA | Buy | 0.149387→0.147503 | -20.28 | timeout |
| 06-25 10:32 | ATOM | Buy | 1.65601→1.63277 | -22.39 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 09:21 | ATOM | Buy | 1.67082→1.64586 | -23.65 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 09:18 | ATOM | Buy | 1.67142→1.64766 | -22.59 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 08:57 | ATOM | Buy | 1.65141→1.65189 | -0.65 | timeout |
| 06-25 07:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.147727→0.149763 | +19.44 | timeout |
| 06-25 04:35 | ATOM | Sell | 1.63989→1.64051 | -2.04 | timeout |
| 06-25 04:03 | APT | Sell | 0.629443→0.622556 | +15.06 | timeout |
| 06-25 03:03 | INJ | Buy | 4.23146→4.18215 | -18.90 | timeout |
| 06-25 03:03 | ADA | Buy | 0.146827→0.147743 | +8.15 | timeout |
| 06-25 01:42 | INJ | Buy | 4.25276→4.19056 | -23.32 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 23:04 | OP | Buy | 0.103556→0.105844 | +31.79 | take_profit |
| 06-24 22:00 | ADA | Buy | 0.145106→0.148263 | +31.31 | take_profit |
| 06-24 19:10 | OP | Buy | 0.0996449→0.0982263 | -22.71 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 18:10 | APT | Sell | 0.591152→0.59975 | -23.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 17:25 | LTC | Buy | 40.5131→39.94 | -22.57 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 17:22 | ATOM | Sell | 1.63679→1.6007 | +31.68 | take_profit |
| 06-24 17:20 | SOL | Buy | 66.2669→65.3525 | -22.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 17:19 | AVAX | Buy | 6.15854→6.07234 | -22.35 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 16:51 | APT | Sell | 0.615346→0.60195 | +31.28 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | ARB | Sell | 0.0754711→0.0737984 | +31.87 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:22 | OP | Sell | 0.0985254→0.100095 | -25.25 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:46 | AVAX | Buy | 6.29507→6.20684 | -22.39 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:43 | LINK | Buy | 7.49367→7.38686 | -22.76 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 14:28 | OP | Buy | 0.0995349→0.101735 | +31.79 | take_profit |
| 06-24 13:30 | ADA | Buy | 0.146937→0.144871 | -22.41 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:22 | ADA | Buy | 0.147527→0.145331 | -23.67 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:13 | OP | Buy | 0.101725→0.100225 | -23.49 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:11 | ADA | Buy | 0.147907→0.145821 | -22.49 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 11:36 | OP | Sell | 0.101175→0.100625 | +6.80 | timeout |
| 06-24 11:04 | AVAX | Buy | 6.4046→6.4081 | -0.55 | timeout |
| 06-24 10:10 | ADA | Buy | 0.150418→0.148199 | -23.40 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 10:05 | ADA | Buy | 0.151538→0.149893 | -17.51 | timeout |
| 06-24 09:01 | INJ | Buy | 4.50943→4.51107 | -0.70 | timeout |
| 06-24 04:21 | OP | Sell | 0.102174→0.099965 | +30.86 | take_profit |
| 06-24 03:37 | ADA | Buy | 0.151248→0.152402 | +10.02 | timeout |
| 06-24 03:00 | ARB | Buy | 0.0789997→0.0781105 | -18.05 | timeout |
| 06-24 02:30 | ADA | Buy | 0.151798→0.152662 | +7.11 | timeout |
| 06-24 01:23 | ADA | Buy | 0.150238→0.152552 | +21.68 | timeout |
| 06-24 00:21 | ADA | Buy | 0.150408→0.151682 | +11.29 | timeout |
| 06-23 22:14 | OP | Sell | 0.0984454→0.0998749 | -23.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 21:02 | ADA | Buy | 0.149997→0.149813 | -3.17 | timeout |
| 06-23 20:01 | APT | Sell | 0.631142→0.64038 | -23.29 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 19:49 | OP | Sell | 0.099825→0.0976244 | +31.69 | take_profit |
| 06-23 19:07 | ADA | Buy | 0.150478→0.150282 | -3.28 | timeout |
| 06-23 18:04 | BNB | Sell | 575.336→574.003 | +1.94 | timeout |
| 06-23 16:11 | INJ | Sell | 4.58185→4.55624 | +6.86 | timeout |
| 06-23 15:50 | LTC | Buy | 42.4126→41.7896 | -23.37 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 15:36 | BNB | Sell | 573.707→574.724 | -4.19 | timeout |
| 06-23 13:02 | INJ | Sell | 4.59065→4.56084 | +8.27 | timeout |
| 06-23 13:01 | BNB | Sell | 573.866→573.393 | -0.39 | timeout |
| 06-23 12:23 | SOL | Buy | 68.4343→69.0706 | +12.78 | timeout |
| 06-23 11:21 | OP | Sell | 0.0962059→0.0975932 | -22.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 10:23 | ATOM | Sell | 1.73537→1.76002 | -22.71 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 08:28 | ADA | Sell | 0.154181→0.150808 | +31.46 | take_profit |
| 06-23 08:17 | ATOM | Buy | 1.76454→1.73959 | -22.52 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 08:15 | OP | Buy | 0.0985246→0.0971371 | -22.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | ATOM | Buy | 1.77694→1.74899 | -24.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | SUI | Buy | 0.693133→0.683427 | -22.35 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 05:01 | ARB | Sell | 0.0832692→0.0821105 | +19.40 | timeout |
| 06-23 04:02 | LTC | Sell | 44.5399→44.6292 | -4.38 | timeout |
| 06-23 04:02 | APT | Sell | 0.660735→0.658365 | +4.05 | timeout |
| 06-23 04:02 | ARB | Sell | 0.0829992→0.0827507 | +2.98 | timeout |
| 06-23 04:02 | SOL | Sell | 71.8622→71.9298 | -2.91 | timeout |
| 06-23 00:00 | ATOM | Buy | 1.78745→1.79535 | +5.28 | timeout |
| 06-22 22:38 | ADA | Buy | 0.1595→0.157262 | -22.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 22:38 | ARB | Buy | 0.0835909→0.0823682 | -23.25 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 22:29 | AVAX | Buy | 6.26577→6.17736 | -22.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 22:28 | OP | Buy | 0.100965→0.0994953 | -23.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 20:28 | OP | Sell | 0.102184→0.101415 | +10.01 | timeout |
| 06-22 13:36 | OP | Buy | 0.102056→0.104284 | +31.35 | take_profit |
| 06-22 11:10 | SUI | Buy | 0.710938→0.726418 | +31.27 | take_profit |
| 06-22 10:04 | ADA | Buy | 0.16026→0.16026 | -1.28 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
880
closed
37%
win rate
-3444.53
total pnl ($)
-26.0 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OP | 167 | 37% | -26.1 | -652.69 |
| ADA | 129 | 40% | -29.0 | -560.34 |
| ATOM | 125 | 41% | -12.6 | -234.64 |
| APT | 103 | 35% | -25.4 | -393.93 |
| INJ | 102 | 43% | -2.9 | -47.04 |
| NEAR | 91 | 24% | -67.7 | -925.32 |
| ARB | 42 | 48% | -2.3 | -15.54 |
| AVAX | 38 | 32% | -32.2 | -184.66 |
| SUI | 27 | 22% | -72.8 | -295.78 |
| LTC | 14 | 36% | +2.0 | +3.80 |
| LINK | 10 | 40% | -31.8 | -48.03 |
| BNB | 9 | 56% | +0.1 | -0.60 |
| SOL | 8 | 25% | -42.5 | -50.76 |
| XRP | 7 | 43% | -18.0 | -18.71 |
| DOGE | 5 | 60% | +21.1 | +15.80 |
| ETH | 2 | 0% | -146.3 | -44.00 |
| BTC | 1 | 100% | +52.8 | +7.92 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 28)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 16:31 | ATOM | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-26 11:14 | APT | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 16:05 | XRP | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 15:12 | AVAX | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 14:53 | XRP | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 14:10 | XRP | Buy | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-25 13:14 | AVAX | Buy | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-25 11:09 | ADA | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 08:04 | NEAR | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-25 07:01 | ATOM | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 06:01 | ATOM | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 05:02 | ATOM | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 00:23 | INJ | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 19:12 | OP | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 17:27 | SOL | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 16:23 | OP | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-24 16:23 | ATOM | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-24 16:23 | ARB | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-24 16:23 | APT | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-24 14:34 | LINK | Buy | stale_intent |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||