243
closed trades
37%
win rate
-488.47
total pnl ($)
0.990
weight
7d window — n=30 wr=37% pnl=-38.79
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-19 13:40:54 (38.1d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
xv_funding_robust_siblings
n: 187
· wr: 41.7%
· total_bps: -3998.4
· mean_bps: -21.38
· sharpe: -0.13
· max_dd_bps: -4317.3
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 16:00 | LINK | Sell | 7.2127→7.39454 | -18.27 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 16:00 | AVAX | Sell | 6.22994→6.38619 | -18.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 14:29 | LINK | Buy | 7.08567→7.27248 | +17.73 | timeout |
| 06-26 14:26 | SOL | Buy | 68.6543→71.6553 | +29.94 | take_profit |
| 06-26 12:40 | NEAR | Buy | 1.82176→1.77577 | -18.33 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 09:56 | SUI | Buy | 0.695614→0.678131 | -18.24 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 07:14 | APT | Buy | 0.577444→0.602849 | +30.19 | take_profit |
| 06-26 06:22 | OP | Sell | 0.102934→0.105639 | -19.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:56 | ADA | Sell | 0.139105→0.142607 | -18.27 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:53 | ARB | Sell | 0.0707523→0.0725644 | -18.56 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:00 | OP | Buy | 0.102546→0.101675 | -6.66 | timeout |
| 06-26 02:16 | BTC | Buy | 58880.9→58454.1 | -5.69 | timeout |
| 06-26 02:14 | LINK | Buy | 7.2123→7.05704 | -15.80 | timeout |
| 06-26 02:14 | ARB | Sell | 0.0733817→0.0710478 | +21.54 | timeout |
| 06-26 02:12 | APT | Buy | 0.591548→0.576767 | -17.88 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 14:33 | LTC | Sell | 39.4861→40.4773 | -18.20 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:55 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0756901→0.0723881 | +29.90 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:51 | NEAR | Buy | 1.90498→1.85671 | -18.36 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:49 | INJ | Buy | 4.24656→4.13859 | -18.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:48 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0772707→0.0738955 | +29.91 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:43 | AVAX | Buy | 6.4005→6.23852 | -18.35 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 11:50 | ETH | Buy | 1619.66→1628.94 | +3.39 | timeout |
| 06-25 11:41 | NEAR | Buy | 1.96629→1.91696 | -17.76 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 10:33 | ATOM | Buy | 1.67202→1.62868 | -18.70 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:02 | ETH | Buy | 1572.56→1641.64 | +30.10 | take_profit |
| 06-25 04:53 | LTC | Buy | 39.7559→41.4866 | +29.85 | take_profit |
| 06-25 03:45 | INJ | Buy | 4.25926→4.15198 | -18.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 20:42 | AVAX | Buy | 6.04951→6.31292 | +29.84 | take_profit |
| 06-24 20:25 | INJ | Buy | 4.16054→4.34291 | +30.05 | take_profit |
| 06-24 20:01 | APT | Sell | 0.595551→0.610558 | -18.29 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:43 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0822115→0.0827353 | +3.77 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:43 | AVAX | Sell | 6.27683→6.16624 | +11.57 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:43 | APT | Buy | 0.627957→0.633142 | +5.10 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:42 | BTC | Buy | 62710.1→62664.9 | -1.11 | timeout |
| 06-19 01:03 | ARB | Buy | 0.0824106→0.0860085 | +29.85 | take_profit |
| 06-16 10:13 | LTC | Buy | 45.8335→45.6376 | -3.61 | timeout |
| 06-16 04:09 | ATOM | Sell | 2.0002→1.95359 | +15.47 | timeout |
| 06-16 04:09 | BTC | Buy | 67114.4→66150.7 | -10.65 | timeout |
| 06-16 02:28 | LINK | Buy | 8.36029→8.14978 | -18.25 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:26 | BNB | Buy | 628.117→612.39 | -18.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 21:08 | AVAX | Buy | 7.03186→6.85556 | -18.22 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 21:08 | ADA | Sell | 0.187853→0.179645 | +29.93 | take_profit |
| 06-11 02:25 | BNB | Buy | 592.238→590.242 | -3.05 | timeout |
| 06-10 20:20 | ATOM | Buy | 1.80575→1.77236 | -13.68 | timeout |
| 06-10 20:20 | AVAX | Sell | 6.52997→6.43681 | +9.26 | timeout |
| 06-10 20:20 | BNB | Sell | 586.823→586.707 | -0.49 | timeout |
| 06-10 20:20 | BTC | Buy | 61590.1→61798.9 | +1.70 | timeout |
| 06-10 11:04 | APT | Buy | 0.654063→0.637721 | -18.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 07:03 | LINK | Buy | 7.85526→7.87193 | +0.96 | timeout |
| 06-10 06:22 | ATOM | Buy | 1.77164→1.77576 | +0.89 | timeout |
| 06-10 04:46 | AVAX | Buy | 6.49642→6.65704 | +16.89 | timeout |
| 06-10 04:46 | DOGE | Sell | 0.083997→0.0851093 | -9.81 | timeout |
| 06-10 04:45 | BTC | Buy | 61393.1→62016.9 | +6.55 | timeout |
| 06-09 18:20 | APT | Sell | 0.647338→0.663798 | -18.46 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 18:17 | ARB | Sell | 0.0787903→0.0807806 | -18.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 16:39 | APT | Sell | 0.672032→0.642361 | +29.95 | take_profit |
| 06-09 14:08 | ARB | Sell | 0.0806898→0.0808202 | -1.66 | timeout |
| 06-09 13:08 | APT | Buy | 0.648162→0.671832 | +24.85 | timeout |
| 06-09 12:00 | XRP | Buy | 1.16859→1.15471 | -8.84 | timeout |
| 06-09 11:40 | BNB | Buy | 603.021→596.371 | -8.40 | timeout |
| 06-09 06:28 | BTC | Buy | 63615.2→63418.8 | -2.83 | timeout |
| 06-09 00:31 | AVAX | Buy | 6.8207→6.64501 | -18.53 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 00:24 | ARB | Buy | 0.0832108→0.0811191 | -17.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 23:30 | SUI | Buy | 0.76087→0.756821 | -4.46 | timeout |
| 06-08 23:24 | XRP | Sell | 1.16091→1.17179 | -7.32 | timeout |
| 06-08 19:06 | ATOM | Sell | 1.74146→1.78534 | -18.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 18:06 | INJ | Sell | 5.64069→5.78474 | -18.45 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 12:57 | NEAR | Sell | 2.13437→2.18804 | -18.27 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 10:31 | ARB | Sell | 0.0828293→0.0822706 | +4.13 | timeout |
| 06-08 10:31 | BNB | Buy | 603.691→596.931 | -8.52 | timeout |
| 06-08 10:31 | AVAX | Sell | 6.77671→6.67717 | +9.66 | timeout |
| 06-08 10:31 | APT | Sell | 0.672232→0.670168 | +1.62 | timeout |
| 06-08 10:30 | ATOM | Sell | 1.71197→1.74124 | -12.57 | timeout |
| 06-07 08:57 | BNB | Buy | 573.073→598.37 | +30.17 | take_profit |
| 06-07 03:29 | BTC | Buy | 60641→61626.9 | +10.72 | timeout |
| 06-07 01:30 | OP | Sell | 0.0937965→0.0962321 | -18.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 01:22 | INJ | Buy | 5.05606→5.28488 | +31.00 | take_profit |
| 06-07 01:08 | ATOM | Sell | 1.6142→1.65994 | -20.46 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 21:50 | XRP | Sell | 1.09093→1.08977 | +0.03 | timeout |
| 06-06 21:26 | BTC | Buy | 61145.1→60847 | -3.99 | timeout |
| 06-06 19:00 | OP | Buy | 0.0952138→0.0940965 | -8.61 | timeout |
| 06-06 18:59 | ATOM | Sell | 1.6164→1.6138 | +0.45 | timeout |
| 06-06 15:23 | INJ | Buy | 5.1815→5.05201 | -18.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 12:52 | ADA | Sell | 0.154651→0.158609 | -18.60 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 10:07 | APT | Buy | 0.662266→0.645715 | -18.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 08:32 | INJ | Buy | 5.06747→5.29128 | +30.27 | take_profit |
| 06-06 08:29 | LINK | Buy | 7.13998→7.45594 | +30.31 | take_profit |
| 06-06 08:28 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0802799→0.0823017 | -18.24 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 04:30 | INJ | Sell | 5.14721→4.91693 | +30.56 | take_profit |
| 06-06 04:23 | XRP | Sell | 1.11352→1.06487 | +29.92 | take_profit |
| 06-06 04:20 | ATOM | Buy | 1.62541→1.58441 | -18.21 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 04:19 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0813883→0.0793425 | -18.21 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 04:09 | LTC | Buy | 43.2278→42.0964 | -18.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 23:24 | ARB | Buy | 0.0819305→0.0798801 | -18.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 23:22 | LINK | Buy | 7.54078→7.35098 | -18.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 20:47 | SUI | Buy | 0.67923→0.709013 | +30.06 | take_profit |
| 06-05 20:24 | ADA | Sell | 0.157791→0.161741 | -18.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 20:15 | ETH | Sell | 1553.14→1591.65 | -17.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 20:15 | AVAX | Sell | 6.70592→6.87475 | -18.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 19:48 | NEAR | Buy | 1.87847→1.96051 | +29.94 | take_profit |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
243
closed
37%
win rate
-488.47
total pnl ($)
-28.7 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APT | 25 | 56% | +84.5 | +147.98 |
| AVAX | 24 | 46% | +24.1 | +40.08 |
| ATOM | 19 | 26% | -135.3 | -179.65 |
| ARB | 19 | 32% | -71.2 | -94.19 |
| ADA | 18 | 44% | -35.4 | -45.32 |
| BTC | 18 | 28% | -19.2 | -24.18 |
| BNB | 18 | 33% | -1.6 | -1.87 |
| DOGE | 14 | 50% | +21.1 | +20.76 |
| NEAR | 12 | 42% | +4.7 | +4.31 |
| OP | 12 | 8% | -183.2 | -153.69 |
| INJ | 12 | 33% | -29.5 | -25.01 |
| LINK | 11 | 45% | -31.8 | -24.47 |
| LTC | 11 | 27% | -62.8 | -48.27 |
| ETH | 10 | 30% | -82.0 | -57.34 |
| XRP | 8 | 38% | -58.9 | -33.15 |
| SOL | 6 | 50% | +46.5 | +19.69 |
| SUI | 6 | 17% | -80.8 | -34.14 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 12)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 15:17 | AVAX | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-26 13:33 | XRP | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-26 05:06 | BNB | Buy | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-26 02:48 | APT | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-26 02:42 | LINK | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 15:10 | OP | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 14:30 | BTC | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 14:27 | BTC | Buy | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-25 14:24 | LINK | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 14:24 | ARB | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-25 12:37 | AVAX | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 05:49 | INJ | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||