220
closed trades
40%
win rate
-783.45
total pnl ($)
0.250
weight
7d window — n=25 wr=20% pnl=-224.49
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-19 13:41:59 (40.2d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
xasset_basis_rank_siblings
n: 96
· wr: 42.7%
· total_bps: -2028.5
· mean_bps: -21.13
· sharpe: -0.19
· max_dd_bps: -3224.1
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 15:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.144376→0.144464 | -0.24 | timeout |
| 06-27 22:16 | ETH | Buy | 1594.46→1564.56 | -19.63 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 19:25 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0762781→0.0748209 | -20.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 19:25 | SOL | Buy | 72.7419→71.3706 | -19.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 18:11 | ADA | Buy | 0.147177→0.146493 | -5.25 | timeout |
| 06-27 09:03 | ADA | Buy | 0.147927→0.147123 | -6.23 | timeout |
| 06-26 06:58 | ADA | Buy | 0.140665→0.145104 | +30.61 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:53 | XRP | Buy | 1.04166→1.02183 | -19.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:51 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0748987→0.0734749 | -19.91 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 09:24 | ETH | Buy | 1620.86→1647.34 | +15.39 | timeout |
| 06-25 03:08 | XRP | Buy | 1.05756→1.07133 | +12.18 | timeout |
| 06-24 16:51 | SOL | Buy | 67.7532→66.4568 | -20.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 16:46 | ETH | Buy | 1644.76→1613.93 | -19.63 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 14:01 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0779985→0.0765106 | -19.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:48 | ADA | Buy | 0.147407→0.144572 | -20.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:22 | ETH | Buy | 1678.47→1647.01 | -19.65 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:22 | XRP | Buy | 1.09757→1.07669 | -19.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 02:03 | ADA | Buy | 0.150128→0.152622 | +15.61 | timeout |
| 06-23 22:58 | ETH | Buy | 1663.67→1664.53 | -0.35 | timeout |
| 06-23 16:16 | SOL | Buy | 68.7943→69.0746 | +3.36 | timeout |
| 06-22 21:24 | BTC | Buy | 65423.3→64206.7 | -19.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 19:08 | ADA | Buy | 0.16066→0.157522 | -20.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 16:45 | XRP | Buy | 1.15719→1.13515 | -19.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 21:07 | ADA | Buy | 0.16129→0.16021 | -7.56 | timeout |
| 06-21 19:30 | BTC | Buy | 64374.2→64190.8 | -3.74 | timeout |
| 06-21 14:14 | ETH | Buy | 1733.97→1722.13 | -7.72 | timeout |
| 06-21 12:15 | ADA | Buy | 0.1619→0.16047 | -9.73 | timeout |
| 06-20 22:55 | BTC | Buy | 63934.2→64259.8 | +4.19 | timeout |
| 06-20 14:07 | ADA | Buy | 0.163101→0.15997 | -20.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 06:41 | BTC | Buy | 63318.2→63676.8 | +4.76 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:51 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0823156→0.0829882 | +7.23 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:50 | ETH | Buy | 1684.17→1705.73 | +11.90 | timeout |
| 06-19 19:54 | BTC | Buy | 62596.1→63067.8 | +6.62 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:13 | ADA | Buy | 0.16018→0.16164 | +8.28 | timeout |
| 06-18 23:55 | XRP | Buy | 1.13978→1.14671 | +5.08 | timeout |
| 06-18 23:45 | BTC | Buy | 62835.1→62864.9 | -0.39 | timeout |
| 06-18 03:35 | BTC | Buy | 64431.2→64287.8 | -3.14 | timeout |
| 06-18 03:29 | XRP | Buy | 1.1853→1.17971 | -5.53 | timeout |
| 06-16 02:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.180025→0.176498 | -20.52 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 00:10 | BTC | Buy | 67230.4→66372.7 | -13.63 | timeout |
| 06-15 21:25 | ETH | Buy | 1823.88→1819.22 | -3.52 | timeout |
| 06-15 21:04 | XRP | Buy | 1.27932→1.25476 | -20.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 20:24 | ADA | Buy | 0.186357→0.184544 | -10.58 | timeout |
| 06-15 16:14 | SOL | Buy | 73.539→75.8756 | +30.88 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:42 | XRP | Buy | 1.2078→1.24599 | +30.72 | take_profit |
| 06-15 05:15 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0870368→0.0885359 | +16.22 | timeout |
| 06-15 00:22 | ADA | Buy | 0.186637→0.183073 | -19.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 21:40 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0858425→0.0885579 | +30.74 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:31 | BTC | Buy | 64251.2→64688.8 | +5.88 | timeout |
| 06-14 21:31 | ETH | Buy | 1664.87→1699.33 | +19.73 | timeout |
| 06-14 14:38 | SOL | Buy | 68.2042→66.9195 | -19.67 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 13:31 | ADA | Buy | 0.170133→0.166875 | -20.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 09:45 | BTC | Buy | 64559.2→64525.8 | -1.45 | timeout |
| 06-13 17:05 | SOL | Buy | 67.3961→67.9398 | +7.19 | timeout |
| 06-13 16:36 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0873488→0.0877311 | +3.38 | timeout |
| 06-12 21:17 | ADA | Buy | 0.170443→0.170257 | -2.01 | timeout |
| 06-12 14:36 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0885941→0.0913881 | +30.63 | take_profit |
| 06-12 08:52 | ADA | Buy | 0.170493→0.169818 | -4.96 | timeout |
| 06-12 06:34 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0871418→0.0854359 | -20.49 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 20:31 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0845051→0.0861285 | +18.21 | timeout |
| 06-11 20:31 | BTC | Buy | 62679.1→63346.8 | +9.66 | timeout |
| 06-11 20:31 | ETH | Buy | 1647.26→1669.93 | +12.81 | timeout |
| 06-09 15:29 | ADA | Buy | 0.167332→0.164137 | -20.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 05:42 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0859125→0.0842798 | -19.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 22:15 | ETH | Buy | 1666.97→1720.53 | +31.23 | take_profit |
| 06-07 19:19 | ADA | Buy | 0.16195→0.158851 | -20.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 15:31 | ETH | Buy | 1613.46→1632.74 | +11.12 | timeout |
| 06-07 13:44 | BTC | Buy | 61851.1→61727.9 | -2.91 | timeout |
| 06-07 12:42 | SOL | Buy | 64.8107→63.5926 | -19.58 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 10:02 | XRP | Buy | 1.16189→1.13974 | -19.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 09:15 | SOL | Buy | 64.0056→66.0511 | +31.28 | take_profit |
| 06-07 03:19 | ADA | Buy | 0.157029→0.162039 | +30.97 | take_profit |
| 06-07 01:52 | ADA | Buy | 0.15812→0.16084 | +16.38 | timeout |
| 06-06 18:30 | BTC | Buy | 60473→60617 | +1.51 | timeout |
| 06-06 05:02 | ETH | Buy | 1532.65→1504 | -19.58 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 18:46 | XRP | Buy | 1.10888→1.08728 | -20.40 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 15:41 | ETH | Buy | 1601.16→1571.16 | -19.62 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 13:53 | ETH | Buy | 1660.07→1629.02 | -19.55 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 06:23 | BTC | Buy | 62418.1→61252.3 | -19.58 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 01:03 | ADA | Buy | 0.176004→0.17266 | -19.91 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 14:08 | BTC | Buy | 62310.1→64311.8 | +31.24 | take_profit |
| 06-04 13:20 | ADA | Buy | 0.191548→0.187829 | -20.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 02:02 | XRP | Buy | 1.17579→1.15343 | -19.91 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 00:29 | ETH | Buy | 1827.08→1792.62 | -19.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 00:26 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0925071→0.0907319 | -20.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 20:55 | SOL | Buy | 72.2578→70.8769 | -19.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 20:55 | ETH | Buy | 1811.98→1777.93 | -19.68 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 19:55 | XRP | Buy | 1.22451→1.2011 | -20.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 19:26 | ADA | Buy | 0.209862→0.205766 | -20.43 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 19:31 | ADA | Buy | 0.218044→0.213889 | -19.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 14:23 | ETH | Buy | 1977→1939.44 | -19.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 06:47 | DOGE | Buy | 0.100975→0.0990567 | -19.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 02:07 | XRP | Buy | 1.29152→1.26675 | -20.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 02:06 | SOL | Buy | 81.2222→79.6952 | -19.69 | stop_loss |
| 06-01 22:18 | XRP | Buy | 1.28732→1.28928 | +0.67 | timeout |
| 06-01 13:55 | ADA | Buy | 0.231568→0.22713 | -20.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-01 08:30 | SOL | Buy | 81.9693→80.4207 | -19.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-01 06:58 | ADA | Buy | 0.236039→0.232822 | -14.44 | timeout |
| 05-31 22:15 | BTC | Buy | 73736.7→73947.3 | +1.97 | timeout |
| 05-31 21:47 | ETH | Buy | 2021.9→2012.6 | -5.56 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
220
closed
40%
win rate
-783.45
total pnl ($)
-35.5 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 49 | 33% | -42.4 | -206.98 |
| BTC | 39 | 46% | -10.8 | -43.04 |
| ETH | 38 | 34% | -33.9 | -129.23 |
| DOGE | 34 | 44% | -33.1 | -113.78 |
| XRP | 31 | 42% | -54.7 | -170.22 |
| SOL | 29 | 41% | -41.6 | -120.19 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||