339
closed trades
38%
win rate
-577.06
total pnl ($)
0.568
weight
7d window — n=56 wr=41% pnl=-108.35
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-19 13:41:59 (39.1d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
xasset_basis_rank_siblings
n: 157
· wr: 50.3%
· total_bps: -969.5
· mean_bps: -6.18
· sharpe: -0.06
· max_dd_bps: -2011.7
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 11:03 | DOGE | Buy | 0.075879→0.0752852 | -4.37 | timeout |
| 06-27 11:02 | BTC | Buy | 60341→60399 | +0.02 | timeout |
| 06-27 10:22 | XRP | Buy | 1.06337→1.05834 | -2.79 | timeout |
| 06-27 06:29 | ADA | Buy | 0.146947→0.147383 | +0.99 | timeout |
| 06-26 22:28 | BTC | Buy | 60108→59897 | -2.22 | timeout |
| 06-26 22:22 | XRP | Buy | 1.04266→1.04234 | -0.61 | timeout |
| 06-26 19:40 | SOL | Buy | 71.5917→73.8889 | +15.57 | take_profit |
| 06-26 15:39 | ADA | Buy | 0.143476→0.148113 | +15.71 | take_profit |
| 06-26 13:19 | SOL | Buy | 69.4284→68.1197 | -9.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 02:13 | ADA | Buy | 0.142726→0.139945 | -10.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 14:33 | DOGE | Buy | 0.07218→0.0744764 | +15.46 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:42 | ADA | Buy | 0.148087→0.145231 | -10.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:42 | ETH | Buy | 1631.06→1600.54 | -9.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:39 | BTC | Buy | 61779.1→60625.6 | -9.76 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 10:51 | ADA | Buy | 0.147307→0.148033 | +2.01 | timeout |
| 06-25 08:23 | XRP | Buy | 1.07587→1.08203 | +2.42 | timeout |
| 06-25 06:03 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0763611→0.0771937 | +5.01 | timeout |
| 06-25 01:51 | BTC | Buy | 59410→60896 | +12.06 | timeout |
| 06-25 00:52 | XRP | Buy | 1.05616→1.07493 | +8.47 | timeout |
| 06-24 17:21 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0747887→0.073328 | -10.20 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 16:51 | SOL | Buy | 67.7562→66.4398 | -10.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 16:51 | ADA | Buy | 0.143886→0.141134 | -10.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:47 | ETH | Buy | 1647.66→1616.83 | -9.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:33 | SOL | Buy | 69.3734→68.0697 | -9.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:57 | BTC | Buy | 62355.1→61195.3 | -9.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:12 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0789417→0.0774389 | -9.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 11:08 | XRP | Buy | 1.10208→1.08089 | -10.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 10:10 | ADA | Buy | 0.150428→0.147479 | -10.23 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 01:38 | ADA | Buy | 0.150838→0.154081 | +10.25 | timeout |
| 06-23 21:32 | XRP | Buy | 1.10468→1.10472 | -0.42 | timeout |
| 06-23 21:31 | BTC | Buy | 61951.1→62531.9 | +4.24 | timeout |
| 06-23 16:22 | ETH | Buy | 1651.87→1662.23 | +2.68 | timeout |
| 06-23 08:24 | BTC | Buy | 63285.2→62105.8 | -9.76 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | XRP | Buy | 1.12948→1.10787 | -9.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:20 | BTC | Buy | 64048.2→62845.4 | -9.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:20 | ADA | Buy | 0.15854→0.155443 | -10.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 03:43 | ADA | Buy | 0.15862→0.15913 | +1.21 | timeout |
| 06-22 20:37 | BTC | Buy | 64947.2→64420.8 | -4.51 | timeout |
| 06-22 18:52 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0843651→0.0827559 | -10.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 15:49 | ADA | Buy | 0.16199→0.158891 | -9.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 13:55 | ADA | Buy | 0.16038→0.162789 | +7.03 | timeout |
| 06-22 11:03 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0831368→0.0836951 | +2.91 | timeout |
| 06-22 05:14 | XRP | Buy | 1.13108→1.13662 | +1.99 | timeout |
| 06-22 05:14 | ETH | Buy | 1708.87→1736.63 | +7.67 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:26 | SOL | Buy | 72.5289→74.8288 | +15.40 | take_profit |
| 06-22 00:44 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0832738→0.0829233 | -2.55 | timeout |
| 06-21 21:09 | XRP | Buy | 1.14529→1.12236 | -10.47 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 20:17 | ETH | Buy | 1718.37→1730.93 | +3.19 | timeout |
| 06-21 19:20 | BTC | Buy | 64200.2→64168.8 | -0.68 | timeout |
| 06-21 13:24 | ADA | Buy | 0.16042→0.16133 | +2.37 | timeout |
| 06-21 12:39 | SOL | Buy | 73.6891→73.117 | -4.38 | timeout |
| 06-21 08:49 | BTC | Buy | 64243.2→63900.8 | -3.16 | timeout |
| 06-21 06:24 | SOL | Buy | 73.497→73.193 | -2.53 | timeout |
| 06-21 05:15 | ADA | Buy | 0.163051→0.15995 | -9.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 00:30 | ETH | Buy | 1732.77→1736.33 | +0.53 | timeout |
| 06-21 00:09 | ADA | Buy | 0.162241→0.163229 | +2.56 | timeout |
| 06-20 14:11 | ADA | Buy | 0.162921→0.15978 | -10.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 14:11 | DOGE | Buy | 0.084206→0.082598 | -10.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 13:47 | SOL | Buy | 71.6327→71.1373 | -3.95 | timeout |
| 06-20 12:26 | XRP | Buy | 1.14139→1.14771 | +2.34 | timeout |
| 06-20 03:53 | SOL | Buy | 68.9963→69.9905 | +6.72 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:51 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0824046→0.0830032 | +3.16 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:51 | ETH | Buy | 1688.87→1706.13 | +4.66 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:45 | BTC | Buy | 62513.1→63246.8 | +5.45 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:07 | ADA | Buy | 0.16023→0.16152 | +3.61 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:19 | ADA | Buy | 0.164001→0.160879 | -9.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 02:12 | XRP | Buy | 1.14179→1.14941 | +2.86 | timeout |
| 06-19 00:03 | ADA | Buy | 0.16091→0.163339 | +7.16 | timeout |
| 06-18 14:51 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0845741→0.083893 | -4.45 | timeout |
| 06-18 13:47 | ADA | Buy | 0.166922→0.163687 | -10.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 13:40 | XRP | Buy | 1.17769→1.15533 | -9.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 13:19 | BTC | Buy | 63958.2→64357.8 | +2.68 | timeout |
| 06-18 07:04 | ETH | Buy | 1745.17→1734.73 | -3.49 | timeout |
| 06-18 05:04 | ADA | Buy | 0.167252→0.164067 | -9.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 21:13 | SOL | Buy | 72.4319→71.9512 | -3.79 | timeout |
| 06-17 19:50 | ETH | Buy | 1761.68→1728.66 | -9.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:25 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0856294→0.0858915 | +1.04 | timeout |
| 06-17 19:25 | XRP | Buy | 1.1904→1.1881 | -1.40 | timeout |
| 06-17 09:22 | ADA | Buy | 0.171303→0.168758 | -7.90 | timeout |
| 06-17 03:36 | SOL | Buy | 74.0201→73.7189 | -2.47 | timeout |
| 06-17 01:22 | ADA | Buy | 0.174414→0.171062 | -10.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 16:32 | ETH | Buy | 1783.08→1775.32 | -2.67 | timeout |
| 06-16 16:05 | BTC | Buy | 66346.3→65872.7 | -4.05 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:23 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0883871→0.0866899 | -10.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 13:57 | ADA | Buy | 0.176994→0.176896 | -0.72 | timeout |
| 06-16 04:31 | ETH | Buy | 1792.28→1758.64 | -9.83 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:27 | SOL | Buy | 74.4482→73.0485 | -9.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:55 | SOL | Buy | 73.7321→73.7269 | -0.52 | timeout |
| 06-15 22:31 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0896694→0.087934 | -10.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:30 | ADA | Buy | 0.180485→0.177027 | -10.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 19:24 | BTC | Buy | 66326.3→66540.7 | +1.14 | timeout |
| 06-15 19:19 | ADA | Buy | 0.188947→0.185271 | -10.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 13:06 | ETH | Buy | 1725.67→1780.72 | +15.49 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:35 | ADA | Buy | 0.180955→0.186853 | +15.82 | take_profit |
| 06-15 10:49 | XRP | Buy | 1.1831→1.1854 | +0.52 | timeout |
| 06-15 07:30 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0889152→0.0886068 | -2.23 | timeout |
| 06-15 05:18 | BTC | Buy | 64688.2→65677.7 | +7.19 | timeout |
| 06-15 00:32 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0865666→0.0886978 | +11.81 | timeout |
| 06-14 21:40 | ADA | Buy | 0.167582→0.172957 | +15.54 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:33 | ETH | Buy | 1664.57→1705.13 | +11.70 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
339
closed
38%
win rate
-577.06
total pnl ($)
-34.0 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 71 | 39% | -42.3 | -149.95 |
| XRP | 61 | 36% | -38.0 | -115.43 |
| BTC | 54 | 43% | -20.6 | -56.25 |
| ETH | 54 | 39% | -34.5 | -93.88 |
| DOGE | 50 | 34% | -40.9 | -102.60 |
| SOL | 49 | 39% | -24.0 | -58.95 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 1)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 15:43 | SOL | Buy | circuit_breaker |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||