130
closed trades
30%
win rate
-330.22
total pnl ($)
1.212
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-18 19:53:08 (39.3d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
abk__restored_dc50c508
n: 217
· wr: 41.5%
· total_bps: -984.5
· mean_bps: -4.54
· sharpe: -0.05
· max_dd_bps: -1708.8
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-04 03:31 | XMR | Buy | 354.599→362.389 | +13.70 | take_profit |
| 06-04 03:31 | AVAX | Buy | 7.83256→8.0101 | +14.14 | take_profit |
| 06-04 03:03 | INJ | Buy | 6.27517→6.4117 | +13.56 | take_profit |
| 06-04 01:17 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0853953→0.0841359 | -10.17 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 01:15 | LINK | Buy | 8.27837→8.15798 | -10.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 00:41 | HYPE | Buy | 74.6076→73.5438 | -9.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 00:29 | DOT | Buy | 1.10618→1.08998 | -10.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 23:56 | KAS | Buy | 0.0323531→0.0318811 | -10.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 23:15 | ICP | Buy | 3.15289→3.10447 | -10.57 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 22:26 | XMR | Buy | 361.5→356.353 | -9.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 21:05 | INJ | Buy | 6.46652→6.61835 | +14.68 | take_profit |
| 06-03 20:55 | AVAX | Buy | 8.02541→7.91226 | -9.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 20:38 | ICP | Buy | 3.09957→3.05591 | -9.74 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 19:22 | BCH | Buy | 248.302→244.816 | -9.71 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 17:07 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0864906→0.085236 | -10.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 16:48 | FIL | Buy | 0.963041→0.949487 | -9.73 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 16:26 | NEAR | Buy | 2.89422→2.85296 | -9.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 15:33 | SOL | Buy | 74.6012→73.5722 | -9.53 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 14:21 | BCH | Buy | 248.312→244.806 | -9.76 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 12:29 | XMR | Buy | 342.486→349.893 | +13.47 | take_profit |
| 06-03 11:55 | XRP | Buy | 1.24481→1.23469 | -5.90 | timeout |
| 06-03 11:34 | LTC | Buy | 48.3461→48.3009 | -1.17 | timeout |
| 06-03 09:46 | ADA | Buy | 0.214474→0.216236 | +4.72 | timeout |
| 06-03 09:12 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0940535→0.0939155 | -1.55 | timeout |
| 06-03 09:04 | ETC | Buy | 7.88657→7.85614 | -3.09 | timeout |
| 06-03 06:34 | INJ | Buy | 6.65166→6.7983 | +13.74 | take_profit |
| 06-03 05:04 | ATOM | Buy | 1.81615→1.85534 | +13.44 | take_profit |
| 06-03 03:44 | UNI | Buy | 2.8017→2.76213 | -9.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 03:38 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0865876→0.085331 | -10.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 03:35 | AAVE | Buy | 74.3346→73.25 | -10.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 03:28 | ACE | Buy | 0.111328→0.109718 | -9.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 22:19 | APT | Buy | 0.843411→0.831376 | -9.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 21:32 | SUI | Buy | 0.815704→0.833262 | +13.41 | take_profit |
| 06-02 19:56 | XRP | Buy | 1.2197→1.22369 | +1.59 | timeout |
| 06-02 19:30 | BCH | Buy | 282.221→277.981 | -10.35 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 19:24 | AAVE | Buy | 76.096→75.0237 | -9.74 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 14:21 | AAVE | Buy | 77.3373→76.2528 | -9.70 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 14:10 | APT | Buy | 0.911428→0.898626 | -9.69 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 13:46 | BCH | Buy | 283.121→286.238 | +6.57 | timeout |
| 06-02 13:05 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0906066→0.0901025 | -4.20 | timeout |
| 06-02 12:48 | TRX | Buy | 0.340505→0.339585 | -2.34 | timeout |
| 06-02 11:39 | AAVE | Buy | 77.8265→77.4136 | -4.03 | timeout |
| 06-02 09:39 | XMR | Buy | 348.787→343.842 | -9.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 05:05 | FIL | Buy | 0.952808→0.939095 | -9.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 01:38 | ONDO | Buy | 0.353148→0.348049 | -9.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 01:37 | FIL | Buy | 0.952948→0.939345 | -9.86 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 01:30 | APT | Buy | 0.941235→0.927004 | -10.43 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 01:24 | TRX | Buy | 0.343596→0.342554 | -2.56 | timeout |
| 06-01 17:39 | ACE | Buy | 0.12133→0.11951 | -10.34 | stop_loss |
| 06-01 13:55 | APT | Buy | 0.916829→0.903722 | -9.88 | stop_loss |
| 06-01 13:14 | ATOM | Buy | 1.93718→1.90967 | -9.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-01 12:57 | LTC | Buy | 51.0248→51.0792 | +0.08 | timeout |
| 06-01 11:37 | OP | Buy | 0.116269→0.116931 | +3.13 | timeout |
| 06-01 07:47 | ADA | Buy | 0.234469→0.231127 | -9.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-01 04:48 | DOT | Buy | 1.2011→1.18411 | -9.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-01 02:42 | FIL | Buy | 0.931823→0.951862 | +13.39 | take_profit |
| 06-01 01:43 | ARB | Buy | 0.103416→0.101934 | -9.88 | stop_loss |
| 06-01 00:16 | RENDER | Buy | 2.08472→2.13037 | +13.65 | take_profit |
| 05-31 22:38 | ARB | Buy | 0.101215→0.103094 | +11.45 | timeout |
| 05-31 21:11 | DOT | Buy | 1.16039→1.17371 | +6.87 | timeout |
| 05-31 19:55 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0176744→0.0180555 | +13.43 | take_profit |
| 05-31 18:27 | NEAR | Buy | 2.27407→2.24172 | -9.84 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 16:25 | OP | Buy | 0.117899→0.116243 | -9.73 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 14:20 | ETC | Buy | 8.18825→8.06974 | -9.99 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 14:18 | DOT | Buy | 1.1896→1.17262 | -9.86 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 14:16 | ICP | Buy | 2.71638→2.67719 | -9.96 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 12:08 | ETC | Buy | 8.21695→8.19055 | -2.67 | timeout |
| 05-31 11:15 | ICP | Buy | 2.67787→2.68383 | +0.86 | timeout |
| 05-31 10:49 | ETH | Buy | 2030.9→2017.9 | -4.75 | timeout |
| 05-31 10:43 | BTC | Buy | 74046.7→73779.3 | -2.96 | timeout |
| 05-31 09:38 | DOT | Buy | 1.1981→1.1936 | -3.03 | timeout |
| 05-31 07:12 | ATOM | Buy | 2.0095→1.98031 | -10.02 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 05:29 | ICP | Buy | 2.66617→2.72422 | +13.57 | take_profit |
| 05-31 04:40 | DOT | Buy | 1.1896→1.1999 | +5.04 | timeout |
| 05-31 04:31 | BCH | Buy | 303.606→303.494 | -0.82 | timeout |
| 05-31 03:55 | BTC | Buy | 73827.7→74131.3 | +2.07 | timeout |
| 05-31 02:42 | KAS | Buy | 0.0309337→0.0304871 | -9.97 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 00:16 | SOL | Buy | 82.9804→82.7566 | -2.37 | timeout |
| 05-30 19:13 | TRX | Buy | 0.344186→0.346923 | +4.58 | timeout |
| 05-30 19:05 | BNB | Buy | 704.156→719.31 | +13.39 | take_profit |
| 05-30 17:51 | ATOM | Buy | 2.05161→2.03469 | -5.93 | timeout |
| 05-30 15:48 | LINK | Buy | 9.14048→9.1956 | +3.30 | timeout |
| 05-30 14:13 | ONDO | Buy | 0.345116→0.344634 | -1.49 | timeout |
| 05-30 13:40 | BNB | Buy | 673.268→672.872 | -1.00 | timeout |
| 05-30 11:59 | AVAX | Buy | 8.91323→8.91467 | -0.50 | timeout |
| 05-30 11:47 | RENDER | Buy | 1.9843→2.02699 | +13.40 | take_profit |
| 05-30 04:29 | KAS | Buy | 0.0308537→0.0301973 | -14.41 | stop_loss |
| 05-30 01:53 | BCH | Buy | 302.976→304.204 | +2.05 | timeout |
| 05-30 01:31 | APT | Buy | 0.934133→0.954261 | +13.40 | take_profit |
| 05-30 01:29 | XMR | Buy | 400.83→409.518 | +13.50 | take_profit |
| 05-29 23:01 | OP | Buy | 0.11875→0.11838 | -2.62 | timeout |
| 05-29 20:25 | APT | Buy | 0.932633→0.936666 | +2.19 | timeout |
| 05-29 18:47 | NEAR | Buy | 2.59005→2.55368 | -9.71 | stop_loss |
| 05-29 17:45 | HYPE | Buy | 67.1538→66.2053 | -9.77 | stop_loss |
| 05-29 17:27 | BNB | Buy | 634.499→643.429 | +8.53 | timeout |
| 05-29 16:07 | XMR | Buy | 363.281→371.337 | +13.83 | take_profit |
| 05-29 14:26 | KAS | Buy | 0.0305796→0.0301514 | -9.69 | stop_loss |
| 05-29 14:26 | ATOM | Buy | 2.0002→1.96882 | -10.78 | stop_loss |
| 05-29 14:23 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0182146→0.0179565 | -9.79 | stop_loss |
| 05-29 12:28 | HYPE | Buy | 62.3866→61.5128 | -9.69 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
130
closed
30%
win rate
-330.22
total pnl ($)
-39.1 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATOM | 8 | 25% | -53.2 | -27.45 |
| DOT | 8 | 25% | -66.9 | -34.77 |
| TRX | 7 | 14% | -52.3 | -23.78 |
| AAVE | 6 | 0% | -109.8 | -42.82 |
| XMR | 6 | 67% | +89.4 | +34.86 |
| APT | 6 | 33% | -62.1 | -24.20 |
| BCH | 6 | 33% | -56.5 | -22.02 |
| HBAR | 5 | 20% | -62.5 | -20.31 |
| XRP | 5 | 40% | -20.5 | -6.66 |
| FIL | 5 | 20% | -80.8 | -26.27 |
| ICP | 5 | 40% | -48.7 | -15.84 |
| INJ | 4 | 75% | +123.6 | +32.15 |
| XLM | 4 | 25% | -64.3 | -16.71 |
| RENDER | 4 | 75% | +119.2 | +30.99 |
| HYPE | 4 | 25% | -60.9 | -15.82 |
| BNB | 4 | 75% | +81.1 | +20.99 |
| KAS | 4 | 0% | -169.8 | -44.14 |
| ACE | 3 | 0% | -156.6 | -30.54 |
| NEAR | 3 | 0% | -150.7 | -29.39 |
| OP | 3 | 33% | -47.2 | -9.22 |
| AVAX | 3 | 33% | +20.1 | +3.89 |
| ETC | 3 | 0% | -80.8 | -15.76 |
| SAGA | 2 | 50% | +28.0 | +3.64 |
| ONDO | 2 | 0% | -88.2 | -11.46 |
| LINK | 2 | 50% | -51.6 | -6.73 |
| SOL | 2 | 0% | -91.5 | -11.90 |
| BTC | 2 | 50% | -6.5 | -0.89 |
| ARB | 2 | 50% | +12.1 | +1.57 |
| ADA | 2 | 50% | -39.2 | -5.14 |
| LTC | 2 | 50% | -8.3 | -1.09 |
| ZEREBRO | 1 | 0% | -14.0 | -0.91 |
| BLUR | 1 | 0% | -153.6 | -9.98 |
| GOAT | 1 | 0% | -14.0 | -0.91 |
| ETH | 1 | 0% | -73.0 | -4.75 |
| CHILLGUY | 1 | 0% | -14.0 | -0.91 |
| SUI | 1 | 100% | +206.2 | +13.41 |
| UNI | 1 | 0% | -150.2 | -9.77 |
| DOGE | 1 | 0% | -23.7 | -1.55 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-02 04:25 | ETH | Buy | +1.37 | # Trade Analysis Ethereum was consolidating near session highs with minimal directional momentum (1h=-0.11%, 24h=+1.06%) while Bitcoin showed relative strength, creating a mixed risk-on backdrop that favored mean-reversion signals. The volume capitulation … |
| 05-02 04:24 | BTC | Buy | -0.33 | BTC was consolidating near $78,262 with minimal directional momentum (down 0.21% in the last hour, up 1.61% over 24 hours) as the trade timed out after 4 hours, while the volume-based capitulation signal that triggered this long trade failed to sustain—BTC … |
| 05-02 04:18 | ADA | Buy | -1.60 | ADA was trading sideways with a slight 1-hour decline of -0.21% and minimal 24-hour loss of -0.79% when the trade timed out, while Bitcoin showed modest strength at +1.51% over 24 hours, suggesting a mixed market backdrop. The volume top trader capitulation… |
| 05-02 00:24 | ETH | Buy | -1.36 | ETH was consolidating with modest intraday strength (+0.14% 1h, +1.52% 24h) while Bitcoin outpaced it (+0.22% 1h, +2.40% 24h), signaling relative weakness in the secondary asset despite broader market recovery. The contrarian long thesis—betting on capitula… |
| 05-02 00:23 | BTC | Buy | +0.03 | Bitcoin was consolidating in a narrow range, up 2.3% over 24 hours with minimal 1-hour momentum (+0.17%) and negative funding (-0.016%), reflecting balanced sentiment without sustained directional conviction. The trade's contrarian long thesis succeeded bec… |
| 05-02 00:18 | ADA | Buy | -5.48 | ADA was essentially flat over the 1-hour period into close (0.00% 1h return) while Bitcoin and Ethereum posted modest gains (2.30% and 1.48% 24h respectively), suggesting a relative underperformance across the altcoin complex despite broader market strength… |
| 05-01 20:24 | ETH | Buy | -3.62 | # Trade Analysis Ethereum was consolidating with modest weakness into the close (-0.29% 1h, -1.03% 7d) while Bitcoin held firmer gains, suggesting a divergence in momentum between the two assets. The volume_top_trader_capitulation_negative_zscore contraria… |
| 05-01 20:22 | BTC | Buy | -2.30 | The Bitcoin market was consolidating with a slight 1-hour pullback of -0.36% despite a +2.13% 24-hour gain, signaling weak momentum into the trade's 4-hour timeout window. The volume-based contrarian long thesis failed because the negative zscore capitulati… |
| 05-01 20:18 | ADA | Buy | -1.33 | ADA was choppy in the 1-hour window prior to timeout (down 0.23%), while Bitcoin and Ethereum both posted modest 24h gains, suggesting mild risk-off sentiment in altcoins despite broader crypto strength. The contrarian long thesis failed because the negativ… |
| 05-01 16:23 | ETH | Buy | +1.79 | # Trade Analysis: ETH Volume Top Trader Capitulation Long ETH was flat to slightly negative in the 1-hour timeframe (-0.18%) but maintained a +2.01% 24-hour gain with moderately elevated funding rates (0.004582%), suggesting mixed near-term momentum despit… |