volume_builder_activity_surge_fade

not live
25
closed trades
48%
win rate
+101.77
total pnl ($)
1.106
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-06-03 17:18:39 (18.7d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: acl
n: 34  ·  wr: 52.9%  ·  total_bps: +707.4  ·  mean_bps: +20.81  ·  sharpe: +0.21  ·  max_dd_bps: -794.2
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 25 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-04 02:01ETHSell1830.62→1750.38+21.50take_profit
06-04 01:51BTCSell65188.7→62326.1+21.51take_profit
06-04 00:38BTCSell66018.7→63120.2+21.50take_profit
06-03 21:43ETHSell1793.32→1837.7-12.82stop_loss
06-03 16:43BTCSell66377.7→65904.3+3.15timeout
06-03 10:07ETHSell1841.62→1887.33-12.83stop_loss
06-03 06:00BTCSell67464.6→67336.4+0.52timeout
06-02 19:07BTCSell69907.5→67257.4+18.51timeout
06-02 15:31ETHSell1977→1889.79+21.61take_profit
06-02 15:31ETHSell1986.3→1899.19+21.48take_profit
06-02 15:30BTCSell70357.5→67268.4+21.51take_profit
05-31 11:43ETHSell2019.6→2021.9-1.01timeout
05-31 11:43BTCSell73771.3→73908.7-1.31timeout
05-31 07:24BTCSell73982.3→73867.7+0.36timeout
05-31 07:24ETHSell2025.1→2024.8-0.32timeout
05-29 18:34ETHSell2014.1→2025.4-3.20timeout
05-29 18:34BTCSell73678.3→73806.7-1.30timeout
05-29 09:15BTCSell73680.3→73784.7-1.12timeout
05-29 09:14ETHSell2019.7→2012.8+1.33timeout
05-02 08:18ETHSell2302.47→2300.13+0.09timeout
05-02 08:18BTCSell78231.1→78209.9-0.31timeout
05-02 00:17ETHSell2291.57→2292.43-0.68timeout
05-02 00:17BTCSell77545.1→78139.9-4.41timeout
05-01 09:37ETHSell2258.77→2282.73-5.76timeout
05-01 09:37BTCSell76392.2→77280.9-6.24timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
25
closed
48%
win rate
+101.77
total pnl ($)
+81.1 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC1354%+111.1+72.37
ETH1242%+48.6+29.40

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-02 08:18ETHSell+0.09The ETH market was consolidating near flat on the hourly timeframe (−0.17%) with modest positive 24h momentum (+0.70%) as the broader crypto complex held steady, while BTC's outperformance (+1.13% in 24h) suggested mild risk-on sentiment that favored the la…
05-02 08:18BTCSell-0.31At close, BTC was trading flat to slightly negative on the 1-hour timeframe ($78,257, -0.08% 1h) after a week of modest gains, with elevated funding rates (0.36 bps) and $4.1B in open interest signaling persistent long positioning. The trade's fade thesis f…
05-02 00:17ETHSell-0.68ETH drifted sideways with slight positive momentum (up 1.48% over 24h, +0.14% in the final hour) while the broader market showed mild strength, offering no catalytic move to trigger the short's profit target. The builder activity surge signal (10.5x above t…
05-02 00:17BTCSell-4.41The Bitcoin market was trading near $78,208 with mild upward momentum (2.30% over 24h, 0.98% over 7d) and slightly negative funding rates (-0.016%), indicating modest long-biased sentiment without extreme leverage. The short thesis failed because the builde…
05-01 09:37ETHSell-5.76ETH was essentially flat on the 1-hour timeframe (down 0.13%) with modest positive 24h momentum (+0.72%) when your position timed out, indicating a lack of directional conviction in the market to drive a mean-reversion bounce. Your short thesis—betting that…
05-01 09:37BTCSell-6.24# Trade Analysis: BTC Builder Surge Fade (CLOSED) **Market Context:** Bitcoin was essentially flat to slightly down on the 1-hour (-0.14%) and overnight (1.40% 24h), with modest positive positioning (0.003972% funding rate), when the trade timed out after …