usdjpy_carry_unwind_crypto_short

not live
22
closed trades
73%
win rate
+35.62
total pnl ($)
1.207
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-20 06:19:17 (33.6d ago) · src: canon
verdict: PASS  ·  strict: STRICT-PASS  ·  batch: km__restored_ee83e266
n: 28  ·  wr: 60.7%  ·  total_bps: +428.9  ·  mean_bps: +15.32  ·  sharpe: +0.22  ·  max_dd_bps: -313.7
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 22 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
05-08 00:07ETHSell2297.47→2292.03+0.76timeout
05-08 00:07BTCSell80187→80036+0.50timeout
05-07 21:06ETHSell2291.07→2288.53+0.12timeout
05-07 21:06BTCSell79790→79774-0.34timeout
05-07 18:06ETHSell2309.17→2303.73+0.75timeout
05-07 18:04BTCSell80435→80149+1.34timeout
05-07 15:05ETHSell2328.87→2298.63+6.04timeout
05-07 15:05BTCSell80922→80083+4.75timeout
05-07 12:03ETHSell2345.17→2331.93+2.38timeout
05-07 12:03BTCSell81506.9→80953+2.96timeout
05-07 09:02ETHSell2326.67→2333.03-1.81timeout
05-07 09:02BTCSell80953→81163.1-1.75timeout
05-07 06:02BTCSell81117.9→81024.1+0.13timeout
05-07 06:00ETHSell2324.57→2330.33-1.70timeout
05-07 03:02ETHSell2345.17→2319.73+4.95timeout
05-07 03:02BTCSell81279.9→81054.1+0.94timeout
05-07 00:00ETHSell2348.57→2350.64-0.90timeout
05-07 00:00BTCSell81445.9→81417.1-0.28timeout
05-06 20:58ETHSell2358.66→2348.73+1.65timeout
05-06 20:58BTCSell81624.9→81377.1+1.06timeout
05-06 17:17BTCSell82088.9→81434.1+3.53timeout
05-06 14:07ETHSell2391.06→2338.63+10.51take_profit

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
22
closed
73%
win rate
+35.62
total pnl ($)
+32.3 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
ETH1173%+41.3+22.76
BTC1173%+23.3+12.86

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-08 00:07ETHSell+0.76ETH was in a mild downtrend across all timeframes with low volatility and neutral funding. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected move did not materialize within the holding period.
05-08 00:07BTCSell+0.50BTC traded in a narrow, low-volatility range with slight bearish bias across timeframes. The thesis failed because the expected directional move did not materialize within the timeout period, resulting in a minimal profit from funding decay.
05-07 21:06ETHSell+0.12The market was in a neutral range with low funding and stable open interest, offering no clear directional edge. The thesis failed because the trade expired via timeout without reaching a target or stop, as the lack of volatility prevented the short from ma…
05-07 21:06BTCSell-0.34The market was in a low-funding, sideways consolidation with no clear directional momentum. The thesis failed because the trade expired without reaching a target or stop, as the lack of volatility prevented any profitable exit.
05-07 18:06ETHSell+0.75The market was in a mild downtrend with ETH declining 1.56% over 24 hours, while funding rates remained slightly positive. The thesis failed because the trade was closed due to timeout, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the…
05-07 18:04BTCSell+1.34The market was in a mild downtrend with BTC down across all timeframes and low funding rates. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected move materialized, as the market remained range-bound without reaching the target.
05-07 15:05ETHSell+6.04The market was in a mild downtrend with ETH declining 1.25% over 24 hours and 3.97% over the week, while funding rates remained neutral. The thesis succeeded because the short position captured a small profit during the persistent bearish drift, but the tra…
05-07 15:05BTCSell+4.75The market was in a mild downtrend with BTC declining across all timeframes and neutral funding. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected move did not materialize within the holding period.
05-07 12:03ETHSell+2.38The market was in a neutral range with low funding and moderate open interest, offering no clear directional edge. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected move did not materialize within the holding period.
05-07 12:03BTCSell+2.96The market was in a low-funding, sideways consolidation with stable open interest, offering no clear directional bias. The thesis failed because the trade expired without reaching a target or stop, as the lack of volatility prevented any meaningful price mo…