us_cash_open_fade

not live
11
closed trades
73%
win rate
+14.80
total pnl ($)
1.096
weight
7d window — n=1 wr=100% pnl=+4.83  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-17 17:40:11 (35.1d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: q
n: 3  ·  wr: 100.0%  ·  total_bps: +117.4  ·  mean_bps: +39.13  ·  sharpe: +3.17  ·  max_dd_bps: +0.0
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 11 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-15 17:02BTCBuy66297.3→66998.6+4.83timeout
06-05 16:10BTCBuy60763→59934-7.27stop_loss
06-04 17:04BTCSell64130.8→63493.2+4.53timeout
06-03 20:43BTCBuy66044.3→65146.2-7.26stop_loss
05-28 17:18BTCSell73466.3→73388.7+0.10timeout
05-26 17:00BTCSell77171.1→76520.8+3.77timeout
05-15 17:00BTCBuy78661.9→79223+3.12timeout
05-06 17:06BTCBuy81347.1→81575.9+0.96timeout
05-04 14:51BTCBuy78562.9→80288+10.53take_profit
05-01 17:11BTCSell78585.1→78191.9+2.05timeout
04-22 17:11BTCSell78938→78970-0.55timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
11
closed
73%
win rate
+14.80
total pnl ($)
+26.9 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC1173%+26.9+14.80

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-06 17:06BTCBuy+0.96BTC traded in a narrow range with mild bearish bias across timeframes, showing low volatility and declining funding rates. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout without reaching target or stop, as the market lacked directional momentum t…
05-04 14:51BTCBuy+10.53The market was in a low-funding, high-open-interest regime indicating strong bullish sentiment and potential for continued upward momentum. The thesis worked because the price reached the predefined take-profit level, validating the initial long bias before…
05-01 17:11BTCSell+2.05The market was consolidating near the open with minimal 1-hour momentum (−0.10%), having already captured most of the 2.82% daily upside, which starved the fade signal of further downside room. The US cash-open fade thesis partially worked—the +61 bps initi…
04-22 17:11BTCSell-0.55At close, BTC had declined to $77,848 with minimal 1-hour momentum (0.15%) and flat 24-hour performance (-0.03%), while funding rates remained positive at 0.009%, suggesting modest long positioning. The US cash-open fade thesis failed because BTC's initial …