175
closed trades
38%
win rate
-81.43
total pnl ($)
0.523
weight
7d window — n=35 wr=31% pnl=-118.27
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 20:04:52 (23.0d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
awu
n: 175
· wr: 36.0%
· total_bps: +107.1
· mean_bps: +0.61
· sharpe: +0.00
· max_dd_bps: -4324.0
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 13:57 | HYPE | Sell | 62.2004→63.7588 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 07:12 | UNI | Sell | 2.85769→2.9297 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:02 | ICP | Sell | 2.18085→2.08592 | +21.32 | take_profit |
| 06-26 03:01 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0731963→0.0712915 | -13.46 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 01:30 | APT | Buy | 0.596649→0.581364 | -13.17 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:42 | APT | Buy | 0.630458→0.614439 | -13.17 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 10:47 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0753858→0.0734839 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:24 | BTC | Sell | 60302→61789 | -12.79 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:07 | BTC | Sell | 60238→61733.9 | -12.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 04:57 | ETH | Sell | 1594.74→1634.18 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 17:48 | BNB | Sell | 573.687→548.607 | +20.88 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:57 | SOL | Sell | 69.2866→66.2499 | +21.49 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | ETH | Sell | 1678.23→1604.56 | +21.41 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:47 | BTC | Sell | 62800.9→60042 | +21.25 | take_profit |
| 06-24 13:22 | ARB | Buy | 0.0789097→0.0769223 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 10:59 | SUI | Sell | 0.685559→0.702847 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 10:51 | XLM | Buy | 0.195739→0.190607 | -13.56 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 08:24 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0821055→0.0784686 | +21.68 | take_profit |
| 06-23 06:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.86417→7.66395 | -13.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | ADA | Buy | 0.15852→0.154544 | -12.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:20 | BNB | Buy | 594.859→579.845 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:08 | BTC | Buy | 64691.2→63079.3 | -12.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 04:06 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0803749→0.0789867 | +8.19 | timeout |
| 06-22 13:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0831408→0.0867583 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-22 11:10 | SUI | Sell | 0.708403→0.726144 | -12.70 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 01:26 | ETH | Sell | 1710.33→1752.65 | -12.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 00:37 | AAVE | Sell | 73.9635→75.8168 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 00:37 | APT | Sell | 0.651837→0.668401 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 21:07 | RENDER | Sell | 1.74146→1.66562 | +21.33 | take_profit |
| 06-21 12:05 | XRP | Buy | 1.12718→1.14231 | +6.28 | timeout |
| 06-21 10:17 | LTC | Sell | 44.085→45.1889 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 22:28 | AAVE | Sell | 74.3034→76.1671 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 12:16 | ACE | Buy | 0.0849212→0.0827379 | -13.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 04:30 | SOL | Sell | 68.7597→70.4688 | -12.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 20:09 | BTC | Sell | 64298.8→63049.2 | +9.33 | timeout |
| 06-19 16:08 | TRX | Sell | 0.32154→0.32149 | -0.37 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:42 | LTC | Sell | 43.3282→44.4263 | -13.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.3826→6.21713 | -13.36 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:51 | LINK | Buy | 8.0069→7.80654 | -12.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:46 | LINK | Buy | 8.0209→7.81723 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:45 | ETH | Sell | 1772.32→1694.57 | +21.16 | take_profit |
| 06-18 04:19 | ACE | Buy | 0.0837209→0.081339 | -14.68 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 01:11 | FIL | Sell | 0.787163→0.807105 | -13.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:41 | SUI | Buy | 0.793018→0.7732 | -13.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 18:05 | APT | Buy | 0.687072→0.669897 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:28 | BTC | Sell | 64824.8→66422.5 | -12.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 12:43 | UNI | Sell | 3.26418→3.34831 | -13.34 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 17:49 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0129932→0.0135666 | +21.61 | take_profit |
| 06-16 14:33 | HYPE | Buy | 75.1388→73.2111 | -13.28 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 14:23 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0887452→0.0865071 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 14:23 | INJ | Sell | 5.9879→5.72503 | +21.51 | take_profit |
| 06-16 09:26 | NEAR | Sell | 2.45219→2.51408 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:25 | INJ | Sell | 5.77356→5.91834 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:16 | XLM | Sell | 0.213947→0.219334 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:11 | SOL | Buy | 75.3303→73.4612 | -12.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:58 | XRP | Buy | 1.25821→1.22668 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:24 | ETH | Buy | 1841.78→1795.82 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:22 | LINK | Buy | 8.54083→8.32465 | -13.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 17:33 | APT | Buy | 0.713278→0.695378 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 13:16 | ETH | Buy | 1728.37→1804.22 | +21.46 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:08 | ETC | Buy | 7.28102→7.5997 | +21.43 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:44 | UNI | Buy | 2.59185→2.70472 | +21.33 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.1837→1.23559 | +21.45 | take_profit |
| 06-15 05:30 | LTC | Sell | 44.4069→45.5201 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 00:07 | AAVE | Sell | 66.7793→68.4583 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 23:04 | LTC | Buy | 43.2788→45.1637 | +21.26 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:25 | ADA | Sell | 0.166898→0.171128 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 18:22 | AVAX | Sell | 6.70382→6.4102 | +21.28 | take_profit |
| 06-14 10:09 | ICP | Sell | 2.47598→2.54171 | -13.72 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 03:43 | XLM | Buy | 0.190007→0.185201 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 01:34 | ICP | Sell | 2.57995→2.46062 | +22.68 | take_profit |
| 06-14 00:05 | ETC | Sell | 7.23359→7.17749 | +3.43 | timeout |
| 06-13 20:01 | TRX | Buy | 0.312338→0.317911 | +8.47 | timeout |
| 06-13 06:34 | APT | Sell | 0.647638→0.663998 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 06:10 | OP | Sell | 0.100275→0.102977 | -14.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 04:05 | FIL | Buy | 0.756559→0.756781 | -0.30 | timeout |
| 06-12 12:05 | LTC | Buy | 42.0645→42.9583 | +10.14 | timeout |
| 06-12 04:27 | ADA | Buy | 0.165631→0.172887 | +21.30 | take_profit |
| 06-11 18:00 | ARB | Buy | 0.0804001→0.083969 | +21.66 | take_profit |
| 06-11 17:15 | NEAR | Buy | 2.0184→1.96662 | -13.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 03:55 | AVAX | Sell | 6.4037→6.57483 | -13.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:41 | SOL | Sell | 63.2475→64.8221 | -12.89 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:16 | XMR | Buy | 326.332→340.565 | +21.36 | take_profit |
| 06-10 16:47 | ADA | Buy | 0.164811→0.160609 | -13.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0810703→0.0789707 | -13.40 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 15:46 | BTC | Sell | 60994→62497.4 | -12.72 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 15:44 | AAVE | Sell | 61.9765→63.5586 | -13.21 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 11:54 | KAS | Buy | 0.031838→0.0309718 | -14.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 18:18 | DOT | Sell | 0.938005→0.961591 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 15:20 | ATOM | Sell | 1.73657→1.78023 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 14:16 | BTC | Buy | 63412.2→61850 | -12.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 13:23 | BTC | Buy | 63800.2→62230.8 | -12.73 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 11:00 | INJ | Sell | 5.66298→5.80505 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 04:35 | APT | Sell | 0.644239→0.660495 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 04:10 | TRX | Sell | 0.323449→0.324931 | -2.74 | timeout |
| 06-09 00:37 | INJ | Sell | 5.75476→5.49927 | +21.78 | take_profit |
| 06-09 00:07 | TRX | Sell | 0.323619→0.326442 | -4.81 | timeout |
| 06-08 15:19 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0852527→0.0874095 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 15:01 | UNI | Sell | 2.50717→2.57003 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 14:55 | XRP | Sell | 1.14441→1.17318 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
175
closed
38%
win rate
-81.43
total pnl ($)
-9.3 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
15
closed
27%
win rate
-50.14
total pnl ($)
-133.5 bps
avg bps net
Live WR is 71% of paper WR (27% vs 38%)
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 11 | 36% | -28.7 | -15.78 |
| ETH | 9 | 67% | +161.4 | +72.25 |
| APT | 8 | 12% | -175.4 | -69.81 |
| UNI | 7 | 57% | +132.2 | +46.27 |
| LTC | 7 | 29% | -97.0 | -34.22 |
| AAVE | 6 | 17% | -146.1 | -43.84 |
| XRP | 6 | 67% | +116.7 | +34.65 |
| LINK | 6 | 33% | -32.2 | -9.38 |
| ADA | 6 | 33% | -32.6 | -9.87 |
| NEAR | 5 | 20% | -123.6 | -31.00 |
| XLM | 5 | 0% | -263.4 | -65.85 |
| TRX | 5 | 20% | -50.4 | -12.60 |
| RENDER | 5 | 60% | +152.0 | +37.99 |
| ACE | 5 | 20% | -139.2 | -34.80 |
| DOGE | 5 | 40% | -49.2 | -11.70 |
| SUI | 5 | 40% | -66.6 | -16.17 |
| ARB | 5 | 60% | +151.9 | +37.87 |
| AVAX | 5 | 40% | -70.6 | -17.58 |
| ICP | 5 | 40% | +7.3 | +1.81 |
| INJ | 5 | 40% | +17.3 | +4.37 |
| SOL | 5 | 20% | -120.4 | -29.91 |
| SAGA | 4 | 75% | +231.5 | +46.29 |
| XMR | 4 | 75% | +255.2 | +51.03 |
| DOT | 4 | 25% | -87.5 | -17.49 |
| ETC | 4 | 75% | +164.3 | +32.86 |
| KAS | 4 | 25% | -90.7 | -18.13 |
| HYPE | 4 | 50% | +82.6 | +16.52 |
| ATOM | 3 | 33% | -26.0 | -3.80 |
| BLUR | 3 | 67% | +199.0 | +29.85 |
| BNB | 3 | 67% | +197.7 | +29.16 |
| ONDO | 3 | 33% | -33.1 | -4.96 |
| FIL | 3 | 0% | -177.4 | -26.61 |
| HBAR | 3 | 33% | -122.3 | -18.34 |
| CHILLGUY | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| GOAT | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| BCH | 1 | 0% | -259.1 | -12.95 |
| OP | 1 | 0% | -278.5 | -14.05 |
| ZEREBRO | 1 | 0% | -14.0 | -0.70 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 8)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 16:20 | ICP | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-25 16:20 | HBAR | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-25 16:20 | UNI | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-25 16:20 | TRX | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-25 00:10 | APT | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 20:19 | HBAR | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 20:18 | HBAR | Buy | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-24 16:17 | BTC | Sell | stale_intent |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||