tvl_l2_arbitrum_netflow_deceleration_stabilization_long

not live
56
closed trades
46%
win rate
-45.72
total pnl ($)
1.216
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-19 19:05:44 (34.5d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: abt__restored_dad6e432
n: 217  ·  wr: 41.5%  ·  total_bps: -4789.9  ·  mean_bps: -22.07  ·  sharpe: -0.15  ·  max_dd_bps: -4829.7
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 56 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-13 03:17ETHBuy1665.27→1667.43+0.24timeout
06-12 19:55ETHBuy1665.07→1664.73-0.68timeout
06-12 12:31ETHBuy1667.87→1667.33-0.77timeout
06-12 05:28ETHBuy1676.97→1667.33-4.15timeout
06-11 22:28ETHBuy1647.16→1676.63+10.60timeout
06-11 15:18ETHBuy1657.17→1642.44-6.14timeout
06-11 08:21ETHBuy1638.56→1656.03+6.05timeout
06-10 21:58ETHBuy1633.86→1603.14-12.28stop_loss
06-02 19:33ETHBuy1923.59→1887.47-12.30stop_loss
06-02 14:03ETHBuy1976.8→1970.7-2.49timeout
06-02 05:24ETHBuy1995.7→1997.7+0.06timeout
06-01 20:45ETHBuy1976.4→2007.4+9.23timeout
05-28 13:03ETHBuy1977.9→1990.9+3.55timeout
05-26 04:04ETHBuy2111.41→2090.69-6.67timeout
05-25 20:08ETHBuy2118.11→2121.09+0.26timeout
05-25 13:08ETHBuy2106.51→2117.69+2.71timeout
05-25 06:08ETHBuy2092.51→2104.39+2.95timeout
05-24 23:08ETHBuy2098.51→2092.09-2.50timeout
05-24 14:16ETHBuy2120.21→2080.75-12.22stop_loss
05-24 09:07ETHBuy2122.41→2119.79-1.39timeout
05-23 20:55ETHBuy2071.21→2137.39+19.39take_profit
05-23 19:07ETHBuy2030.2→2070.79+11.88timeout
05-23 07:46ETHBuy2066.41→2027.58-12.31stop_loss
05-23 05:06ETHBuy2076.61→2066.89-3.50timeout
05-22 18:46ETHBuy2121.51→2081.65-12.32stop_loss
05-22 15:05ETHBuy2129.21→2119.49-3.46timeout
05-22 08:05ETHBuy2128.01→2128.79-0.36timeout
05-22 01:04ETHBuy2144.71→2127.79-5.50timeout
05-21 18:04ETHBuy2114.51→2144.29+8.18timeout
05-21 10:31ETHBuy2147.71→2107.63-12.24stop_loss
05-21 04:03ETHBuy2135.81→2147.09+2.68timeout
05-20 21:02ETHBuy2120.21→2134.39+3.60timeout
05-20 01:03ETHBuy2113.91→2108.79-2.08timeout
05-19 16:37ETHBuy2115.21→2114.49-0.83timeout
05-19 09:37ETHBuy2125.41→2115.39-3.52timeout
05-19 02:36ETHBuy2110.51→2124.89+3.68timeout
05-18 18:25ETHBuy2116.41→2076.55-12.35stop_loss
05-12 05:43ETHBuy2339.83→2339.37-0.65timeout
05-12 02:12ETHBuy2338.63→2339.37-0.34timeout
05-11 19:11ETHBuy2329.73→2337.67+1.52timeout
05-11 05:11ETHBuy2345.43→2333.07-3.89timeout
05-10 22:10ETHBuy2334.13→2344.97+2.32timeout
05-10 15:09ETHBuy2327.63→2333.67+1.01timeout
05-10 08:09ETHBuy2321.23→2327.17+0.99timeout
05-10 01:08ETHBuy2331.23→2320.77-3.38timeout
05-09 18:07ETHBuy2313.03→2330.77+4.18timeout
05-09 11:07ETHBuy2323.03→2312.57-3.39timeout
05-09 04:06ETHBuy2308.73→2322.57+3.14timeout
05-08 21:05ETHBuy2281.23→2308.27+6.79timeout
05-08 14:05ETHBuy2271.73→2280.77+1.94timeout
05-08 07:04ETHBuy2292.03→2271.27-6.27timeout
05-08 00:02ETHBuy2290.73→2290.87-0.58timeout
05-07 14:38ETHBuy2330.33→2286.93-12.21stop_loss
05-07 10:02ETHBuy2319.73→2329.87+2.14timeout
05-01 10:18ETHBuy2273.03→2279.67+1.28timeout
04-30 13:16ETHBuy2243.8→2262.63+4.67timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
56
closed
46%
win rate
-45.72
total pnl ($)
-12.7 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
ETH5646%-12.7-45.72

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-10 08:09ETHBuy+0.99The market was in a mild uptrend with ETH gaining 0.33% in the hour and 1.90% over 24 hours, supported by positive funding and rising BTC. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected move materialized, likely due to insuffi…
05-10 01:08ETHBuy-3.38ETH was in a mild uptrend across shorter timeframes but lagging BTC on the week, with neutral funding and moderate open interest. The trade failed because the thesis did not trigger an entry before the timeout, resulting in a small negative PnL from the unf…
05-09 18:07ETHBuy+4.18The market was in a neutral to slightly bullish regime with low funding and moderate open interest. The thesis failed because the trade was closed due to a timeout, indicating the expected price movement did not materialize within the holding period.
05-09 11:07ETHBuy-3.39The market was in a broad downtrend across both ETH and BTC, with ETH losing 2.9% in 24 hours and 3.84% over the week. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the bearish momentum could yield a profitable exit, as the entry never tr…
05-09 04:06ETHBuy+3.14The market was in a mild downtrend with ETH declining 1.40% over 24 hours and 3.03% over 7 days, while funding remained slightly positive. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before reaching a profitable exit, as the persistent bearish…
05-08 21:05ETHBuy+6.79The market was in a short-term uptrend with ETH gaining 0.39% in the hour, but the broader 24-hour and 7-day trends were negative. The thesis failed because the trade was closed due to a timeout, likely not reaching the target or stop within the allowed tim…
05-08 14:05ETHBuy+1.94The market was in a neutral to slightly bullish regime with low funding and moderate open interest. The thesis worked as the trade timed out with a small profit, indicating the position was not triggered but the market moved favorably within the timeout per…
05-08 07:04ETHBuy-6.27The market was in a mild downtrend over the past week with ETH losing 3.63%, though the 1-hour timeframe showed a slight bounce. The trade failed because the thesis did not trigger an entry before the timeout close_reason, resulting in a small negative PnL …
05-08 00:02ETHBuy-0.58ETH traded in a narrow, low-volatility range with mild bearish drift across timeframes. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout without reaching a target or stop, as the market lacked directional conviction to trigger an exit.
05-07 14:38ETHBuy-12.21The market was in a broad downtrend, with ETH falling over 1% in 24 hours and nearly 4% over the week. The thesis failed because the stop-loss was triggered as the bearish momentum continued, invalidating the entry.