top_trader_sentiment_exhaustion_basis_fade · strategy

175

closed trades

48%

win rate

-1.10

total pnl ($)

1.015

weight

7d window — n=25 wr=52% pnl=-18.07 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-20 04:54:40 (41.3d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: tj

n: 39 · wr: 46.2% · total_bps: -92.9 · mean_bps: -2.38 · sharpe: -0.03 · max_dd_bps: -609.6

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)

Last 100 trades

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-30 10:20	AVAX	Sell	6.58945→6.61485	-2.38	timeout
06-30 10:07	XRP	Sell	1.04874→1.04306	+2.25	timeout
06-30 07:15	DOGE	Sell	0.0723119→0.0724241	-1.23	timeout
06-30 07:15	AVAX	Sell	6.62454→6.59655	+1.66	timeout
06-30 07:01	XRP	Sell	1.04434→1.04926	-2.83	timeout
06-30 03:10	AVAX	Sell	6.65913→6.65926	-0.45	timeout
06-29 17:13	XRP	Sell	1.04824→1.0634	-7.68	stop_loss
06-29 07:26	XRP	Sell	1.04654→1.04856	-1.41	timeout
06-29 03:06	XRP	Sell	1.04124→1.05126	-5.25	timeout
06-28 11:20	DOGE	Sell	0.0736666→0.0734504	+1.00	timeout
06-28 07:12	DOGE	Sell	0.0740715→0.0736284	+2.54	timeout
06-28 07:12	AVAX	Sell	6.37751→6.34098	+2.41	timeout
06-28 03:08	DOGE	Sell	0.0745314→0.0742946	+1.13	timeout
06-28 03:08	AVAX	Sell	6.42369→6.37989	+2.96	timeout
06-28 03:08	XRP	Sell	1.04864→1.04796	-0.17	timeout
06-27 14:13	AVAX	Sell	6.54156→6.63337	-7.45	stop_loss
06-27 07:10	DOGE	Sell	0.0757541→0.0756009	+0.55	timeout
06-25 23:05	SOL	Sell	66.478→67.1311	-5.36	timeout
06-25 17:26	SOL	Sell	66.373→67.2917	-7.38	stop_loss
06-25 03:08	SOL	Sell	68.1958→67.7802	+2.59	timeout
06-24 22:00	SOL	Sell	67.2209→68.1503	-7.37	stop_loss
06-24 15:07	XRP	Sell	1.09203→1.07227	+8.59	timeout
06-24 03:04	XRP	Sell	1.10922→1.10408	+1.87	timeout
06-23 19:15	SOL	Sell	69.1866→68.8873	+1.69	timeout
06-23 15:06	SOL	Sell	69.1606→68.8603	+1.69	timeout
06-23 11:09	DOGE	Sell	0.079895→0.0791018	+4.50	timeout
06-23 08:17	SOL	Sell	69.8115→68.2902	+10.44	take_profit
06-23 06:20	DOGE	Sell	0.0821115→0.0803291	+10.40	take_profit
06-23 03:02	SOL	Sell	71.8592→71.8798	-0.64	timeout
06-22 23:02	DOGE	Sell	0.0828453→0.0821615	+3.69	timeout
06-21 11:07	ADA	Sell	0.16128→0.16138	-0.76	timeout
06-21 11:06	XRP	Sell	1.14621→1.14699	-0.77	timeout
06-21 07:02	XRP	Sell	1.14881→1.14659	+0.52	timeout
06-21 03:04	DOGE	Sell	0.0836231→0.0834479	+0.59	timeout
06-20 19:09	DOGE	Sell	0.0835661→0.0831908	+1.81	timeout
06-20 15:07	DOGE	Sell	0.083888→0.0835709	+1.45	timeout
06-20 11:05	DOGE	Sell	0.084008→0.083877	+0.32	timeout
06-19 03:02	SOL	Sell	69.5356→69.6434	-1.21	timeout
06-18 23:00	SOL	Sell	69.5026→69.4814	-0.28	timeout
06-18 23:00	XRP	Sell	1.14381→1.14679	-1.74	timeout
06-18 19:05	SOL	Sell	68.7407→68.6533	+0.20	timeout
06-18 19:05	XRP	Sell	1.14221→1.13578	+2.36	timeout
06-18 03:06	SOL	Sell	72.1562→72.4449	-2.46	timeout
06-17 23:09	SOL	Sell	71.8622→71.7708	+0.18	timeout
06-17 18:05	SOL	Sell	73.8479→72.2438	+10.42	take_profit
06-16 12:33	XRP	Sell	1.23849→1.25594	-7.50	stop_loss
06-16 12:33	LINK	Sell	8.33172→8.44953	-7.52	stop_loss
06-16 08:54	XRP	Sell	1.23379→1.25124	-7.52	stop_loss
06-16 08:53	LINK	Sell	8.28993→8.4073	-7.52	stop_loss
06-14 19:12	XRP	Sell	1.13592→1.13318	+0.72	timeout
06-14 15:07	XRP	Sell	1.14151→1.13298	+3.26	timeout
06-14 11:07	XRP	Sell	1.14411→1.14229	+0.32	timeout
06-13 03:46	DOGE	Sell	0.0859585→0.0863556	-2.80	timeout
06-13 03:06	SOL	Sell	66.783→67.004	-2.12	timeout
06-12 23:18	DOGE	Sell	0.0876931→0.0858064	+10.31	take_profit
06-12 23:06	XRP	Sell	1.13072→1.12998	-0.14	timeout
06-12 19:36	DOGE	Sell	0.0882199→0.0876629	+2.71	timeout
06-12 19:04	XRP	Sell	1.12972→1.13258	-1.74	timeout
06-12 14:17	DOGE	Sell	0.0871192→0.0883402	-7.45	stop_loss
06-12 11:16	LINK	Sell	7.84404→7.90878	-4.58	timeout
06-12 11:16	DOGE	Sell	0.0861745→0.0866757	-3.34	timeout
06-12 07:11	LINK	Sell	7.88763→7.80895	+4.56	timeout
06-12 07:10	DOGE	Sell	0.0864534→0.0856724	+4.09	timeout
06-12 03:05	DOGE	Sell	0.0858785→0.0863066	-2.92	timeout
06-11 01:32	LINK	Sell	7.57221→7.67866	-7.49	stop_loss
06-11 01:13	SOL	Sell	63.2785→64.1527	-7.36	stop_loss
06-10 23:03	SOL	Sell	63.4955→62.6964	+5.82	timeout
06-09 17:19	XRP	Sell	1.12492→1.14086	-7.54	stop_loss
06-09 14:43	XRP	Sell	1.16091→1.13588	+10.32	take_profit
06-09 11:19	XRP	Sell	1.16621→1.15409	+4.73	timeout
06-09 11:06	LINK	Sell	7.89603→7.86837	+1.32	timeout
06-09 10:47	DOGE	Sell	0.0862034→0.0854444	+3.95	timeout
06-09 04:36	ADA	Sell	0.165679→0.168066	-7.66	stop_loss
06-09 04:35	XRP	Sell	1.15321→1.16938	-7.46	stop_loss
06-09 02:38	XRP	Sell	1.16861→1.14329	+10.35	take_profit
06-08 23:10	DOGE	Sell	0.0863994→0.0871818	-4.97	timeout
06-08 23:10	XRP	Sell	1.17371→1.17879	-2.64	timeout
06-08 19:07	XRP	Sell	1.17131→1.17699	-2.90	timeout
06-08 15:12	DOGE	Sell	0.0859935→0.0872134	-7.53	stop_loss
06-08 11:14	DOGE	Sell	0.0854066→0.0859755	-3.76	timeout
06-08 11:13	XRP	Sell	1.14241→1.15129	-4.33	timeout
06-08 07:07	XRP	Sell	1.14441→1.13748	+2.57	timeout
06-08 07:07	DOGE	Sell	0.0852527→0.0850553	+0.70	timeout
06-07 18:01	XRP	Sell	1.13172→1.14766	-7.51	stop_loss
06-07 15:10	DOGE	Sell	0.083848→0.0844111	-3.79	timeout
06-03 22:01	ADA	Sell	0.203139→0.206024	-7.56	stop_loss
06-03 20:56	ADA	Sell	0.205389→0.20096	+10.33	take_profit
06-03 03:49	LINK	Sell	8.37621→8.19405	+10.44	take_profit
06-02 22:50	LINK	Sell	8.56146→8.37649	+10.37	take_profit
06-02 19:30	SOL	Sell	77.0384→75.3633	+10.40	take_profit
06-02 19:12	DOGE	Sell	0.0955461→0.0945236	+4.89	timeout
06-02 14:27	SOL	Sell	78.8042→77.0856	+10.44	take_profit
06-02 11:05	DOGE	Sell	0.0990062→0.0992438	-1.63	timeout
06-02 10:09	ADA	Sell	0.223694→0.223536	-0.14	timeout
06-02 10:09	LINK	Sell	8.82559→8.8187	-0.07	timeout
06-02 07:09	ADA	Sell	0.226673→0.223806	+5.86	timeout
06-02 07:09	LINK	Sell	8.96786→8.82841	+7.34	timeout
06-01 22:04	SOL	Sell	80.7239→80.4501	+1.24	timeout
06-01 16:52	SOL	Sell	79.724→80.102	-2.80	timeout
06-01 11:13	DOGE	Sell	0.0993742→0.100115	-4.16	timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)

175

closed

48%

win rate

-1.10

total pnl ($)

-0.1 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
XRP	45	44%	-7.7	-17.56
DOGE	43	58%	+5.7	+12.25
SOL	37	41%	+1.0	+1.75
ADA	26	38%	-11.0	-14.56
LINK	14	50%	+5.0	+3.64
AVAX	10	70%	+26.7	+13.37

Recent bounces (last 20 of 2)

time	sym	side	reason
06-30 04:15	DOGE	Sell	circuit_breaker
06-30 04:02	XRP	Sell	circuit_breaker

Postmortem feed (last 10)

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
04-27 11:15	ADA	Sell	-0.69	# Trade Analysis: ADA Sentiment Exhaustion Fade Market Context: ADA was flat-to-slightly-negative over the 1-hour close (−0.20%) with Bitcoin stable (−0.01% 1h) and mild 24h underperformance (−2.27%), indicating a consolidation phase rather than direct…

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