top_trader_sentiment_basis_confluence · strategy

1120

closed trades

42%

win rate

-533.61

total pnl ($)

0.603

weight

7d window — n=202 wr=44% pnl=-49.48 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-20 05:05:24 (32.9d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: sd

n: 671 · wr: 47.1% · total_bps: -557.8 · mean_bps: -0.83 · sharpe: -0.01 · max_dd_bps: -4200.7

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)

Last 100 trades

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-22 01:26	LINK	Sell	7.87703→7.98829	-7.51	stop_loss
06-22 01:26	ADA	Sell	0.15961→0.161851	-7.47	stop_loss
06-22 01:23	ETH	Sell	1717.73→1741.34	-7.32	stop_loss
06-22 01:14	XRP	Sell	1.13212→1.13418	-1.37	timeout
06-22 00:57	DOGE	Sell	0.0828043→0.0830678	-2.04	timeout
06-21 23:51	LINK	Sell	7.87503→7.78245	+5.44	timeout
06-21 23:51	ADA	Sell	0.16037→0.157239	+9.31	timeout
06-21 23:24	ETH	Sell	1729.43→1715.57	+3.55	timeout
06-21 21:07	XRP	Sell	1.13932→1.13798	+0.14	timeout
06-21 20:57	DOGE	Sell	0.0833422→0.0831698	+0.58	timeout
06-21 19:51	ADA	Sell	0.16132→0.162081	-2.81	timeout
06-21 19:45	LINK	Sell	7.93302→7.95409	-1.76	timeout
06-21 19:21	ETH	Sell	1726.83→1733.57	-2.40	timeout
06-21 16:55	DOGE	Sell	0.0833542→0.0834709	-1.16	timeout
06-21 16:49	XRP	Sell	1.14171→1.14449	-1.65	timeout
06-21 15:43	LINK	Sell	7.91312→7.97319	-4.23	timeout
06-21 15:32	ADA	Sell	0.16066→0.162191	-5.21	timeout
06-21 15:23	ETH	Sell	1719.03→1729.17	-3.40	timeout
06-21 12:48	XRP	Sell	1.14761→1.14069	+2.56	timeout
06-21 12:48	DOGE	Sell	0.0832372→0.0831078	+0.34	timeout
06-21 11:39	LINK	Sell	7.91202→7.94158	-2.30	timeout
06-21 11:16	ADA	Sell	0.16099→0.16147	-1.94	timeout
06-21 11:15	ETH	Sell	1729.53→1730.17	-0.64	timeout
06-21 08:39	DOGE	Sell	0.0832812→0.0830708	+0.81	timeout
06-21 08:38	XRP	Sell	1.14421→1.14269	+0.23	timeout
06-21 07:26	LINK	Sell	7.96581→7.93278	+1.63	timeout
06-21 07:06	ADA	Sell	0.162089→0.16134	+1.84	timeout
06-21 07:01	ETH	Sell	1736.93→1734.27	+0.31	timeout
06-21 04:37	XRP	Sell	1.14821→1.14989	-1.19	timeout
06-21 04:35	DOGE	Sell	0.0835781→0.0837169	-1.29	timeout
06-21 03:13	LINK	Sell	7.97111→7.94869	+0.97	timeout
06-21 03:04	ADA	Sell	0.163119→0.162201	+2.38	timeout
06-21 02:58	ETH	Sell	1740.43→1735.97	+0.83	timeout
06-21 00:33	XRP	Sell	1.14631→1.14879	-1.52	timeout
06-21 00:33	DOGE	Sell	0.0834391→0.0835619	-1.17	timeout
06-20 22:57	ETH	Sell	1727.73→1744.27	-5.22	timeout
06-20 22:28	ADA	Sell	0.16117→0.163493	-7.65	stop_loss
06-20 22:24	SOL	Sell	72.5861→73.5968	-7.41	stop_loss
06-20 20:12	XRP	Sell	1.14501→1.14449	-0.20	timeout
06-20 19:34	SOL	Sell	71.4573→71.7678	-2.60	timeout
06-20 19:15	DOGE	Sell	0.0835641→0.0832558	+1.41	timeout
06-20 18:55	ADA	Sell	0.16181→0.16088	+2.44	timeout
06-20 18:55	ETH	Sell	1737.73→1725.97	+2.93	timeout
06-20 16:09	XRP	Sell	1.14581→1.14789	-1.34	timeout
06-20 15:18	SOL	Sell	71.9122→72.3098	-3.20	timeout
06-20 14:49	ETH	Sell	1728.43→1734.47	-2.19	timeout
06-20 14:43	ADA	Sell	0.162849→0.16025	+7.53	timeout
06-20 14:27	DOGE	Sell	0.083884→0.0829117	+5.35	timeout
06-20 11:05	SOL	Sell	71.4943→71.5917	-1.12	timeout
06-20 10:49	ETH	Sell	1727.23→1726.57	-0.24	timeout
06-20 10:38	ADA	Sell	0.163319→0.162921	+0.76	timeout
06-20 10:21	XRP	Sell	1.14631→1.15069	-2.37	timeout
06-20 10:21	DOGE	Sell	0.084141→0.084054	+0.07	timeout
06-20 06:20	DOGE	Sell	0.0831462→0.083958	-5.34	timeout
06-20 05:13	XRP	Sell	1.13832→1.15447	-7.55	stop_loss
06-20 05:10	ETH	Sell	1708.53→1732.64	-7.50	stop_loss
06-20 05:10	ADA	Sell	0.1619→0.164203	-7.56	stop_loss
06-20 04:41	SOL	Sell	69.8685→70.837	-7.38	stop_loss
06-20 02:33	ETH	Sell	1707.93→1707.07	-0.19	timeout
06-20 02:16	XRP	Sell	1.13222→1.13728	-2.70	timeout
06-20 02:00	DOGE	Sell	0.0831742→0.0834479	-2.11	timeout
06-20 02:00	SOL	Sell	69.3956→69.7715	-3.15	timeout
06-20 00:33	ADA	Sell	0.16137→0.163703	-7.67	stop_loss
06-19 21:59	DOGE	Sell	0.0830922→0.0828137	+1.23	timeout
06-19 21:59	XRP	Sell	1.13182→1.12918	+0.72	timeout
06-19 21:53	ETH	Sell	1700.83→1702.67	-0.99	timeout
06-19 21:53	SOL	Sell	68.8787→68.9373	-0.89	timeout
06-19 21:40	LINK	Sell	7.85334→7.89197	-2.91	timeout
06-19 17:54	XRP	Sell	1.13612→1.13528	-0.10	timeout
06-19 17:53	DOGE	Sell	0.0830952→0.0833038	-1.70	timeout
06-19 17:34	LINK	Sell	7.92152→7.88977	+1.55	timeout
06-19 17:33	SOL	Sell	69.1166→69.0824	-0.21	timeout
06-19 17:33	ETH	Sell	1702.23→1698.67	+0.60	timeout
06-19 13:45	XRP	Sell	1.12302→1.13915	-7.64	stop_loss
06-19 13:33	ETH	Sell	1687.83→1690.07	-1.11	timeout
06-19 13:33	SOL	Sell	68.1608→68.5013	-2.96	timeout
06-19 13:32	DOGE	Sell	0.0821595→0.0827367	-3.97	timeout
06-19 13:32	LINK	Sell	7.81025→7.85456	-3.29	timeout
06-19 08:36	ETH	Sell	1694.23→1696.27	-1.05	timeout
06-19 08:15	XRP	Sell	1.12972→1.12698	+0.76	timeout
06-19 08:10	SOL	Sell	68.5897→68.2922	+1.72	timeout
06-19 08:00	DOGE	Sell	0.0822304→0.0823276	-1.06	timeout
06-19 07:07	LINK	Sell	7.86603→7.87697	-1.16	timeout
06-19 04:31	ADA	Sell	0.164399→0.16086	+10.32	take_profit
06-19 04:29	ETH	Sell	1709.43→1695.17	+3.73	timeout
06-19 04:08	XRP	Sell	1.15031→1.13678	+5.43	timeout
06-19 03:52	SOL	Sell	69.7475→68.9743	+5.11	timeout
06-19 03:39	DOGE	Sell	0.0835121→0.0827977	+3.84	timeout
06-19 00:02	ETH	Sell	1711.23→1709.77	-0.01	timeout
06-19 00:02	XRP	Sell	1.15141→1.14489	+2.39	timeout
06-18 23:43	SOL	Sell	69.8685→69.6734	+0.96	timeout
06-18 23:23	DOGE	Sell	0.0832492→0.0833278	-0.91	timeout
06-18 22:51	LINK	Sell	7.92272→7.9846	-4.34	timeout
06-18 19:38	XRP	Sell	1.14271→1.14018	+0.66	timeout
06-18 19:37	SOL	Sell	68.6707→69.0314	-3.06	timeout
06-18 19:37	ETH	Sell	1685.23→1694.07	-3.07	timeout
06-18 19:27	DOGE	Sell	0.0824524→0.0825766	-1.20	timeout
06-18 19:08	LINK	Sell	7.82844→7.84476	-1.49	timeout
06-18 15:51	ADA	Sell	0.164069→0.16053	+10.30	take_profit
06-18 15:38	ETH	Sell	1749.33→1711.17	+10.45	take_profit

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)

1120

closed

42%

win rate

-533.61

total pnl ($)

-9.5 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
ADA	265	40%	-17.6	-232.50
XRP	191	48%	-4.8	-46.23
DOGE	188	40%	-8.0	-74.70
ETH	170	44%	-7.6	-64.27
SOL	149	40%	-14.5	-109.01
LINK	126	40%	-7.0	-43.10
AVAX	28	54%	+24.8	+34.36
BTC	3	67%	+12.2	+1.83

Recent bounces (last 20 of 5)

time	sym	side	reason
06-22 01:22	ADA	Sell	stale_intent
06-22 01:22	ADA	Sell	stale_intent
06-22 01:22	LINK	Sell	stale_intent
06-21 22:36	XRP	Sell	stale_intent
06-21 22:12	DOGE	Sell	stale_intent

Postmortem feed (last 10)

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
05-09 18:29	ADA	Sell	-7.35	ADA was trading in a mild uptrend with positive funding and rising open interest, showing short-term bullish momentum. The short thesis failed because the market continued to grind higher, triggering the stop loss as price broke above the entry level.
05-09 18:29	ADA	Sell	-7.35	ADA was in a mild uptrend across multiple timeframes with positive funding and rising open interest. The short thesis failed because the stop_loss was triggered as the market continued its gradual upward move against the position.
05-09 18:29	ADA	Sell	-7.35	The market was in a mild uptrend across the board, with ADA rising 1.24% over 24 hours and positive funding. The short thesis failed because the stop_loss was triggered as the broader bullish momentum pushed ADA higher against the bearish bet.
05-09 18:29	ADA	Sell	-7.35	The market was trending upward with elevated funding and open interest, indicating strong bullish momentum. The short thesis failed because the stop_loss was triggered by the continued upward price movement against the position.
05-09 18:29	ADA	Sell	-7.35	ADA was trading in a narrow range with slight positive momentum across timeframes, while BTC and ETH showed mixed signals. The short thesis failed because the stop-loss was triggered by a brief upward spike, indicating the market lacked sustained bearish co…
05-09 18:29	ADA	Sell	-7.35	ADA was trading in a narrow range with low volatility, showing slight gains over the past 24 hours and 7 days. The short thesis failed because the market lacked the bearish momentum needed to sustain the move, triggering a stop loss as price remained resili…
05-09 18:29	ADA	Sell	-7.35	ADA was trading in a narrow range with mild gains over 24h and 7d, while funding remained positive. The short thesis failed because the stop_loss was triggered as price briefly pushed higher against the position, despite the lack of strong directional momen…
05-09 18:29	ADA	Sell	-7.35	The market was in a bullish trend with elevated funding rates and rising open interest, indicating strong long-side momentum. The short thesis failed because the stop-loss was triggered as price continued to rally against the position, overriding the antici…
05-09 18:29	ADA	Sell	-7.35	The market was in a mild uptrend with ADA gaining 1.15% over 24 hours and 1.16% over 7 days, while BTC showed similar positive momentum. The short thesis failed because the stop_loss was triggered as the broader market strength pushed ADA higher, overriding…
05-09 18:29	ADA	Sell	-7.35	ADA was trading in a narrow range with slight positive momentum over 24h and 7d, while funding remained neutral. The short thesis failed because the stop_loss was triggered by a minor upward move in a sideways market, indicating the entry lacked a clear cat…

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