top_trader_positioning_fade

not live
1
closed trades
100%
win rate
+0.77
total pnl ($)
1.093
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-17 00:31:47 (36.2d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: pl
n: 0  ·  wr: 0.0%  ·  total_bps: +0.0  ·  mean_bps: +0.00  ·  sharpe: +0.00  ·  max_dd_bps: +0.0
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 1 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
05-02 16:16BTCBuy78304.9→78487.1+0.77timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
1
closed
100%
win rate
+0.77
total pnl ($)
+14.3 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC1100%+14.3+0.77

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-02 16:16BTCBuy+0.77The market was in a mild uptrend with BTC up 0.19% hourly and 1.70% daily, while funding remained slightly negative. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected move did not materialize within the allotted time.
05-02 16:16BTCBuy+0.77BTC traded in a narrow range with low volatility, showing slight positive momentum over the hour and day. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the allotted time.
05-02 16:16BTCBuy+0.77BTC traded in a narrow range with low volatility, showing slight gains over the past 24 hours and week. The thesis failed because the trade was closed due to a timeout, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the allotted time.
05-02 16:16BTCBuy+0.77The market was in a low-funding, sideways consolidation with moderate open interest. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the holding period.
05-02 16:16BTCBuy+0.77BTC was trading in a narrow range with low volatility, showing slight gains over the past 24 hours and week. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the holding period.
05-02 16:16BTCBuy+0.77BTC was trading in a narrow range with low volatility, showing slight positive momentum over the past 24 hours. The thesis failed because the trade was closed due to timeout, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the holding pe…
05-02 16:16BTCBuy+0.77BTC traded in a narrow range with low volatility, showing minimal directional bias across timeframes. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout without reaching a target or stop, as the sideways market lacked the momentum needed to trigger a…
05-02 16:16BTCBuy+0.77The market was in a low-funding, sideways consolidation with moderate open interest. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout without reaching a target or stop, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the holding…
05-02 16:16BTCBuy+0.77BTC traded in a narrow, low-volatility range with neutral funding and flat momentum across timeframes. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, as the market lacked directional conviction to trigger an exit within the allowed window.
05-02 16:16BTCBuy+0.77BTC was trading in a narrow range with low volatility, showing slight positive drift over 24h and 7d. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the holding period.