175
closed trades
44%
win rate
+250.27
total pnl ($)
0.430
weight
7d window — n=38 wr=34% pnl=-85.71
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-20 21:45:00 (32.7d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
aqj
n: 111
· wr: 38.7%
· total_bps: -2115.1
· mean_bps: -19.05
· sharpe: -0.10
· max_dd_bps: -4015.4
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 04:06 | BTC | Buy | 63997.2→63904.8 | -1.20 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:26 | ETH | Sell | 1711.53→1753.85 | -12.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 00:06 | BNB | Sell | 586.353→585.046 | +0.89 | timeout |
| 06-21 21:09 | XLM | Buy | 0.215844→0.210402 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 10:24 | FIL | Sell | 0.783404→0.803412 | -13.22 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 10:17 | LTC | Sell | 44.113→45.2499 | -13.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 22:34 | AAVE | Buy | 73.3513→76.5479 | +21.34 | take_profit |
| 06-20 14:07 | ARB | Buy | 0.084061→0.0819585 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 04:06 | SOL | Sell | 68.7767→69.9935 | -9.15 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:06 | ETH | Sell | 1688.83→1708.17 | -6.06 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:06 | XRP | Sell | 1.14361→1.13948 | +1.20 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:06 | BTC | Sell | 62597.9→63420.2 | -7.02 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:04 | BNB | Sell | 588.743→579.925 | +6.78 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:53 | LINK | Buy | 7.9998→7.79825 | -13.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:45 | ETH | Sell | 1773.12→1695.27 | +21.49 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:37 | DOT | Sell | 0.99885→0.954699 | +21.65 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:18 | AVAX | Sell | 6.73911→6.43781 | +21.84 | take_profit |
| 06-18 05:03 | SUI | Sell | 0.774636→0.740795 | +21.41 | take_profit |
| 06-18 03:57 | DOT | Sell | 1.02624→0.981545 | +21.33 | take_profit |
| 06-17 19:42 | NEAR | Buy | 2.29387→2.23632 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:39 | ICP | Buy | 2.4122→2.35024 | -13.29 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 18:05 | APT | Buy | 0.687372→0.670097 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:08 | BNB | Sell | 614.426→605.961 | +6.66 | timeout |
| 06-17 15:48 | FIL | Sell | 0.804269→0.824708 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 08:49 | DOGE | Buy | 0.087957→0.0857556 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 08:08 | BTC | Buy | 66541.3→65407.7 | -8.90 | timeout |
| 06-17 01:49 | SUI | Sell | 0.794441→0.814711 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 01:46 | UNI | Buy | 3.32093→3.46553 | +21.32 | take_profit |
| 06-16 21:16 | BCH | Sell | 217.706→223.227 | -13.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:45 | AVAX | Sell | 6.82509→6.99684 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:14 | ONDO | Sell | 0.370267→0.379565 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:29 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0130233→0.0126805 | -13.61 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:18 | SOL | Buy | 75.1163→73.2524 | -12.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:25 | ETH | Buy | 1840.48→1795.02 | -12.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 20:52 | ADA | Buy | 0.184766→0.180145 | -12.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 18:52 | APT | Buy | 0.712178→0.69358 | -13.52 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 16:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.22991→1.28358 | +21.38 | take_profit |
| 06-15 15:39 | SOL | Buy | 71.3367→74.4538 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:42 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0863636→0.0901275 | +21.21 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.1838→1.23539 | +21.32 | take_profit |
| 06-15 11:20 | AVAX | Sell | 6.75471→6.92419 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 10:54 | LINK | Buy | 7.95659→8.30282 | +21.18 | take_profit |
| 06-15 04:08 | BTC | Buy | 64027.2→65733.7 | +12.83 | timeout |
| 06-14 21:50 | ARB | Buy | 0.0823606→0.0859785 | +21.50 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:50 | BCH | Sell | 203.349→208.516 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 19:25 | LTC | Buy | 43.3908→44.125 | +8.26 | timeout |
| 06-14 16:04 | BNB | Sell | 600.05→608.132 | -7.42 | timeout |
| 06-14 08:01 | LTC | Buy | 42.9917→44.021 | +11.78 | timeout |
| 06-14 04:02 | KAS | Buy | 0.0312308→0.0314791 | +3.53 | timeout |
| 06-13 12:57 | XRP | Sell | 1.12762→1.15587 | -12.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 06:52 | DOT | Sell | 0.956971→0.981005 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 00:13 | SAGA | Sell | 0.0126968→0.0130298 | -13.56 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 16:06 | LTC | Sell | 42.6883→42.9017 | -3.14 | timeout |
| 06-12 16:05 | BTC | Buy | 62595.1→63644.8 | +7.87 | timeout |
| 06-12 14:55 | SOL | Buy | 65.0918→67.9418 | +21.27 | take_profit |
| 06-12 14:20 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0848232→0.0885219 | +21.15 | take_profit |
| 06-12 11:12 | BLUR | Buy | 0.0177214→0.0184954 | +21.39 | take_profit |
| 06-11 10:55 | BTC | Sell | 61673.9→63192.7 | -12.59 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 05:21 | NEAR | Buy | 1.983→2.06948 | +21.32 | take_profit |
| 06-11 03:55 | SUI | Sell | 0.734216→0.752804 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 03:55 | LINK | Sell | 7.57031→7.78684 | -14.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:42 | SOL | Sell | 63.4925→65.0713 | -12.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 21:54 | DOT | Sell | 0.946463→0.905116 | +21.39 | take_profit |
| 06-10 21:50 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0790208→0.0770192 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 17:38 | ADA | Buy | 0.164341→0.16023 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0808202→0.0787809 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 15:46 | BTC | Sell | 61018.9→62521.4 | -12.71 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 13:40 | INJ | Buy | 5.04686→5.26788 | +21.47 | take_profit |
| 06-10 12:03 | BLUR | Sell | 0.0177176→0.0171643 | +15.16 | timeout |
| 06-09 16:39 | XRP | Sell | 1.17051→1.11918 | +21.46 | take_profit |
| 06-09 16:39 | LINK | Sell | 8.0168→7.66692 | +21.42 | take_profit |
| 06-09 16:07 | BTC | Sell | 62870.9→61010.1 | +14.56 | timeout |
| 06-09 12:10 | FIL | Buy | 0.768192→0.773237 | +2.83 | timeout |
| 06-09 05:33 | ADA | Sell | 0.165749→0.169897 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 00:36 | ARB | Buy | 0.0826207→0.0805396 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 20:45 | TRX | Sell | 0.327128→0.326532 | +0.46 | timeout |
| 06-08 18:06 | BNB | Sell | 594.821→609.737 | -12.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 05:15 | OP | Buy | 0.0971543→0.094609 | -13.52 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 00:17 | HYPE | Sell | 58.8313→60.3082 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 22:14 | LINK | Buy | 7.6167→7.95071 | +21.47 | take_profit |
| 06-07 22:14 | SUI | Sell | 0.749083→0.767916 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 22:14 | UNI | Sell | 2.51297→2.57693 | -13.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 20:02 | DOT | Buy | 0.942316→0.942004 | -0.62 | timeout |
| 06-07 16:03 | BTC | Buy | 60835→62010.9 | +9.15 | timeout |
| 06-07 08:57 | ETH | Buy | 1570.76→1639.64 | +21.46 | take_profit |
| 06-07 08:45 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0815314→0.0850827 | +21.36 | take_profit |
| 06-07 08:38 | XRP | Buy | 1.09227→1.13981 | +21.70 | take_profit |
| 06-06 04:38 | LINK | Buy | 7.1818→7.00195 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 04:27 | XRP | Buy | 1.08807→1.0608 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 04:19 | LTC | Buy | 42.6437→41.5378 | -13.31 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 04:15 | SOL | Buy | 63.0074→61.446 | -12.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 04:08 | TRX | Sell | 0.330587→0.31938 | +16.50 | timeout |
| 06-05 21:42 | ONDO | Buy | 0.330803→0.345864 | +22.31 | take_profit |
| 06-05 20:49 | ICP | Buy | 2.23396→2.33192 | +21.47 | take_profit |
| 06-05 19:01 | AVAX | Buy | 6.88522→6.70707 | -13.40 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 18:53 | SAGA | Sell | 0.0141665→0.0134934 | +23.31 | take_profit |
| 06-05 16:57 | XMR | Sell | 311.252→319.199 | -13.22 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 16:11 | ACE | Sell | 0.0901775→0.0861215 | +22.04 | take_profit |
| 06-05 15:37 | LTC | Buy | 43.987→42.8558 | -13.32 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 13:56 | SOL | Buy | 66.2229→64.571 | -12.91 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
175
closed
44%
win rate
+250.27
total pnl ($)
+28.5 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LINK | 12 | 50% | +81.2 | +48.54 |
| XRP | 11 | 55% | +78.7 | +43.57 |
| BTC | 11 | 45% | +19.0 | +10.83 |
| SOL | 10 | 50% | +21.2 | +10.86 |
| LTC | 10 | 20% | -135.4 | -67.52 |
| AVAX | 8 | 38% | -45.3 | -18.13 |
| ADA | 7 | 29% | -42.1 | -15.11 |
| DOGE | 7 | 57% | +151.3 | +53.06 |
| ETH | 7 | 43% | +8.7 | +3.23 |
| BNB | 7 | 57% | +6.3 | +2.19 |
| SUI | 7 | 43% | +33.9 | +12.07 |
| DOT | 7 | 43% | +69.0 | +24.16 |
| UNI | 6 | 33% | -6.7 | -2.01 |
| ICP | 5 | 60% | +151.9 | +37.97 |
| ARB | 5 | 20% | -123.6 | -30.72 |
| NEAR | 4 | 75% | +255.9 | +51.09 |
| ACE | 4 | 50% | +87.0 | +17.40 |
| ONDO | 4 | 75% | +266.4 | +53.27 |
| APT | 3 | 33% | -32.7 | -5.00 |
| OP | 3 | 0% | -268.0 | -40.06 |
| BCH | 3 | 33% | -32.0 | -4.80 |
| BLUR | 3 | 67% | +150.9 | +22.64 |
| SAGA | 3 | 33% | -25.8 | -3.86 |
| FIL | 3 | 33% | -157.0 | -23.54 |
| ETC | 2 | 0% | -279.1 | -27.91 |
| ATOM | 2 | 50% | +89.5 | +8.91 |
| INJ | 2 | 50% | +83.2 | +8.34 |
| CHILLGUY | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| XMR | 2 | 50% | +81.2 | +8.12 |
| ZEREBRO | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| KAS | 2 | 100% | +253.1 | +25.31 |
| HYPE | 2 | 50% | +83.1 | +8.31 |
| XLM | 2 | 50% | +84.1 | +8.41 |
| AAVE | 2 | 50% | +83.7 | +8.37 |
| TRX | 2 | 100% | +169.6 | +16.96 |
| RENDER | 1 | 100% | +438.7 | +21.94 |
| GOAT | 1 | 0% | -14.0 | -0.70 |
| HBAR | 1 | 0% | -262.3 | -13.11 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 4)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 12:22 | ETH | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 04:47 | DOT | Buy | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-22 04:22 | ADA | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 00:30 | ETH | Sell | stale_intent |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||