221
closed trades
40%
win rate
-222.08
total pnl ($)
0.562
weight
7d window — n=49 wr=39% pnl=-109.38
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-21 03:46:14 (37.5d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
arb
n: 65
· wr: 46.2%
· total_bps: -546.1
· mean_bps: -8.40
· sharpe: -0.05
· max_dd_bps: -2074.0
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 12:16 | BLUR | Sell | 0.0147763→0.0151554 | -13.28 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 01:13 | XLM | Buy | 0.179385→0.174869 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 16:04 | TRX | Buy | 0.322851→0.3196 | -5.48 | timeout |
| 06-26 13:57 | HYPE | Sell | 62.1105→63.6807 | -13.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 12:40 | NEAR | Buy | 1.82196→1.77627 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 11:29 | SOL | Buy | 70.2305→68.4895 | -12.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 10:52 | ATOM | Buy | 1.63601→1.5944 | -13.20 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 07:07 | UNI | Sell | 2.85529→2.92799 | -13.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:02 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0731073→0.0711996 | -13.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 01:30 | APT | Buy | 0.596549→0.581364 | -13.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 23:26 | SOL | Sell | 66.2511→67.9061 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 17:59 | HYPE | Sell | 61.7576→63.3034 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:59 | KAS | Sell | 0.0277861→0.0265556 | +21.69 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:48 | ICP | Sell | 2.23624→2.13873 | +21.35 | take_profit |
| 06-25 10:58 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0752208→0.073292 | -13.27 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:24 | BTC | Sell | 60284→61770 | -12.79 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:07 | SUI | Sell | 0.674431→0.691518 | -13.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:02 | SOL | Sell | 67.0079→68.6866 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 04:57 | ETH | Sell | 1595.04→1634.48 | -12.79 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 17:48 | INJ | Sell | 4.31832→4.13033 | +21.29 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | BCH | Sell | 193.862→185.286 | +21.67 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:48 | OP | Sell | 0.102074→0.0975844 | +21.50 | take_profit |
| 06-24 13:42 | AAVE | Buy | 76.213→74.2843 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 12:04 | ETH | Sell | 1658.93→1680.17 | -6.81 | timeout |
| 06-24 08:04 | BTC | Sell | 62800.9→62661.1 | +0.73 | timeout |
| 06-24 08:03 | LINK | Sell | 7.65878→7.608 | +2.75 | timeout |
| 06-24 08:03 | DOGE | Sell | 0.079861→0.0789047 | +5.45 | timeout |
| 06-24 03:14 | HYPE | Sell | 63.6101→60.7252 | +22.23 | take_profit |
| 06-23 10:59 | SUI | Sell | 0.685669→0.702857 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | ETC | Buy | 7.16179→6.97297 | -13.63 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | RENDER | Buy | 1.62311→1.58251 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:08 | BTC | Buy | 64700.2→63076.3 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 04:04 | LINK | Buy | 7.87017→7.89083 | +0.80 | timeout |
| 06-23 04:04 | OP | Buy | 0.100365→0.101135 | +3.24 | timeout |
| 06-23 00:31 | XMR | Sell | 318.1→326.074 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 00:16 | AAVE | Buy | 74.5786→75.2612 | +4.13 | timeout |
| 06-22 22:28 | ETH | Buy | 1766.08→1722.47 | -12.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 12:00 | SUI | Buy | 0.709397→0.740475 | +21.43 | take_profit |
| 06-22 08:06 | UNI | Buy | 3.00775→3.01025 | -0.04 | timeout |
| 06-22 04:05 | LINK | Sell | 7.96151→7.86867 | +5.46 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:26 | ETH | Sell | 1712.33→1754.85 | -12.86 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 00:09 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0804829→0.0781795 | +13.86 | timeout |
| 06-21 20:50 | NEAR | Sell | 2.23414→2.13503 | +21.73 | take_profit |
| 06-21 20:04 | INJ | Buy | 4.99355→4.94666 | -5.09 | timeout |
| 06-21 08:03 | ADA | Sell | 0.162249→0.16146 | +1.60 | timeout |
| 06-21 04:06 | RENDER | Sell | 1.74876→1.70403 | +12.34 | timeout |
| 06-21 00:05 | ETC | Sell | 7.63359→7.44486 | +11.91 | timeout |
| 06-20 20:01 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0802049→0.080162 | -0.18 | timeout |
| 06-20 19:05 | SAGA | Sell | 0.0132467→0.0135902 | -13.42 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 04:06 | XRP | Buy | 1.13578→1.13912 | +1.08 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:06 | BNB | Sell | 579.365→579.675 | -0.94 | timeout |
| 06-19 13:45 | OP | Buy | 0.100635→0.105084 | +21.65 | take_profit |
| 06-19 12:47 | DOT | Buy | 0.968512→0.944311 | -12.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 08:06 | BNB | Sell | 589.003→574.063 | +12.28 | timeout |
| 06-19 08:06 | LTC | Sell | 44.4759→43.4609 | +10.58 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:19 | ACE | Buy | 0.0783196→0.0762428 | -13.71 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:53 | SOL | Sell | 71.8072→68.6633 | +21.56 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:44 | ETH | Sell | 1776.02→1698.17 | +21.36 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:26 | ADA | Buy | 0.166031→0.161879 | -12.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 04:11 | BNB | Buy | 605.811→590.587 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 03:57 | DOT | Sell | 1.02654→0.981485 | +21.50 | take_profit |
| 06-18 03:25 | KAS | Buy | 0.031928→0.0310997 | -13.42 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:40 | SUI | Buy | 0.793848→0.774019 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:28 | BTC | Sell | 64842.8→66439.5 | -12.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 12:09 | UNI | Sell | 3.2069→3.28776 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 09:57 | XMR | Buy | 352.268→343.342 | -13.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 08:05 | LINK | Sell | 8.28613→8.28057 | +0.04 | timeout |
| 06-17 01:09 | DOT | Sell | 0.99883→1.02467 | -13.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 21:16 | BCH | Sell | 218.075→223.578 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 17:49 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0129932→0.0135666 | +21.61 | take_profit |
| 06-16 17:08 | HYPE | Buy | 75.0528→73.1781 | -12.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 14:31 | OP | Buy | 0.108227→0.105511 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:45 | AVAX | Sell | 6.82129→6.99204 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:25 | XLM | Sell | 0.214546→0.219925 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:06 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0887222→0.0876181 | -6.47 | timeout |
| 06-16 02:27 | SOL | Buy | 75.0423→73.1754 | -12.88 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:18 | XRP | Buy | 1.26092→1.22938 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 00:09 | LTC | Sell | 45.3557→45.7944 | -5.14 | timeout |
| 06-15 22:24 | ETH | Buy | 1841.38→1795.92 | -12.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 13:18 | UNI | Buy | 2.59825→2.71242 | +21.52 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:16 | ETH | Buy | 1728.17→1804.52 | +21.60 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.1851→1.23679 | +21.35 | take_profit |
| 06-15 04:01 | LTC | Sell | 44.4179→45.3043 | -10.45 | timeout |
| 06-14 21:50 | BCH | Sell | 203.349→208.516 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 21:40 | ADA | Sell | 0.169478→0.17382 | -13.21 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 21:39 | ONDO | Buy | 0.345986→0.36111 | +21.41 | take_profit |
| 06-14 18:22 | AVAX | Sell | 6.71142→6.415 | +21.47 | take_profit |
| 06-14 16:04 | SOL | Buy | 68.2222→67.4269 | -6.13 | timeout |
| 06-14 12:03 | ACE | Buy | 0.0855214→0.0844789 | -6.54 | timeout |
| 06-14 08:07 | ADA | Buy | 0.173113→0.170817 | -6.94 | timeout |
| 06-14 04:08 | LTC | Buy | 43.2788→44.3489 | +11.91 | timeout |
| 06-14 03:43 | XLM | Buy | 0.190007→0.185201 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 12:57 | XRP | Sell | 1.12732→1.15557 | -12.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 08:07 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0786933→0.0780165 | +3.85 | timeout |
| 06-13 07:19 | RENDER | Sell | 1.66218→1.70438 | -13.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 06:10 | OP | Sell | 0.100295→0.102987 | -14.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 20:04 | TRX | Buy | 0.312308→0.314411 | +2.92 | timeout |
| 06-12 09:33 | APT | Sell | 0.64014→0.656192 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 09:21 | OP | Buy | 0.0943936→0.0987353 | +22.52 | take_profit |
| 06-12 04:05 | BTC | Buy | 62613.1→63475.8 | +6.36 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
221
closed
40%
win rate
-222.08
total pnl ($)
-20.2 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL | 13 | 38% | -81.7 | -52.31 |
| ETH | 13 | 46% | +19.3 | +12.80 |
| SUI | 12 | 42% | +7.8 | +4.73 |
| XRP | 10 | 40% | -24.0 | -11.21 |
| LINK | 9 | 67% | -11.7 | -5.10 |
| BTC | 9 | 33% | -113.5 | -50.83 |
| LTC | 8 | 50% | -30.5 | -12.55 |
| ADA | 8 | 25% | -97.0 | -38.90 |
| HYPE | 7 | 29% | -61.3 | -21.47 |
| UNI | 7 | 29% | -18.6 | -6.51 |
| OP | 7 | 71% | +182.4 | +63.52 |
| INJ | 6 | 50% | +111.8 | +33.30 |
| APT | 6 | 0% | -198.1 | -59.28 |
| DOGE | 6 | 67% | +67.0 | +20.45 |
| HBAR | 6 | 33% | -74.5 | -22.35 |
| BNB | 6 | 50% | +49.6 | +14.75 |
| RENDER | 6 | 33% | -61.4 | -18.41 |
| DOT | 6 | 33% | -60.8 | -18.25 |
| KAS | 6 | 50% | +81.1 | +24.33 |
| ONDO | 5 | 60% | +149.1 | +37.27 |
| ACE | 5 | 20% | -113.5 | -28.37 |
| BCH | 5 | 40% | +16.4 | +4.10 |
| NEAR | 4 | 75% | +258.4 | +51.62 |
| ICP | 4 | 25% | -89.8 | -17.97 |
| SAGA | 4 | 50% | +82.2 | +16.45 |
| TRX | 4 | 50% | +11.8 | +2.36 |
| ATOM | 4 | 25% | -92.1 | -18.39 |
| FIL | 4 | 25% | -187.4 | -37.47 |
| ARB | 4 | 50% | +82.1 | +16.32 |
| ETC | 4 | 25% | -103.3 | -20.67 |
| AVAX | 4 | 25% | -87.1 | -17.56 |
| AAVE | 4 | 50% | -108.0 | -21.60 |
| XLM | 4 | 0% | -262.7 | -52.53 |
| BLUR | 3 | 67% | +106.2 | +15.94 |
| XMR | 3 | 33% | -31.8 | -4.77 |
| GOAT | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| ZEREBRO | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| CHILLGUY | 1 | 0% | -14.0 | -0.70 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||