200
closed trades
36%
win rate
-177.12
total pnl ($)
0.799
weight
7d window — n=45 wr=33% pnl=-70.20
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-21 03:46:14 (36.8d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
arb
n: 61
· wr: 34.4%
· total_bps: -1771.5
· mean_bps: -29.04
· sharpe: -0.14
· max_dd_bps: -3631.7
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 13:57 | HYPE | Sell | 62.1495→63.7078 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 12:43 | BNB | Buy | 568.002→553.764 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 12:40 | NEAR | Buy | 1.82126→1.77577 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 10:40 | ATOM | Buy | 1.63901→1.5967 | -13.40 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 10:39 | SOL | Buy | 70.4676→68.7153 | -12.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 07:07 | UNI | Sell | 2.85529→2.92799 | -13.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:02 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0731073→0.0711996 | -13.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 02:13 | INJ | Buy | 4.30648→4.19205 | -13.71 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 01:30 | APT | Buy | 0.596649→0.581663 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 23:27 | SOL | Sell | 66.2951→67.9952 | -13.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 17:59 | HYPE | Sell | 61.7626→63.3085 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 14:17 | XMR | Sell | 314.661→300.045 | +22.78 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:59 | KAS | Sell | 0.0277851→0.0265566 | +21.66 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:51 | ICP | Sell | 2.22954→2.13203 | +21.42 | take_profit |
| 06-25 10:47 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0753858→0.0734978 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:24 | BTC | Sell | 60281→61765 | -12.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:09 | SOL | Sell | 67.3109→68.9838 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 04:57 | ETH | Sell | 1595.24→1634.68 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 17:48 | INJ | Sell | 4.30872→4.12103 | +21.32 | take_profit |
| 06-24 17:16 | SOL | Sell | 69.1596→66.1299 | +21.48 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | LINK | Sell | 7.63999→7.30293 | +21.61 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:47 | BTC | Sell | 62800.9→60041 | +21.26 | take_profit |
| 06-24 15:31 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0797381→0.0762661 | +21.19 | take_profit |
| 06-24 07:34 | SAGA | Sell | 0.0146063→0.0139535 | +21.90 | take_profit |
| 06-24 03:14 | HYPE | Sell | 63.4561→60.6722 | +21.49 | take_profit |
| 06-23 10:59 | SUI | Sell | 0.685559→0.702887 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | ETC | Buy | 7.15819→6.97297 | -13.39 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | ADA | Buy | 0.15849→0.154444 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | OP | Buy | 0.100415→0.0978965 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | FIL | Sell | 0.80053→0.762851 | +23.08 | take_profit |
| 06-23 06:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.86537→7.66815 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 00:51 | XMR | Sell | 319.55→327.736 | -13.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 20:06 | UNI | Buy | 3.00775→3.02594 | +2.57 | timeout |
| 06-22 04:07 | BTC | Buy | 64005.2→63907.8 | -1.29 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:26 | ETH | Sell | 1710.03→1752.35 | -12.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 00:37 | APT | Sell | 0.651837→0.668401 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 20:50 | NEAR | Sell | 2.23414→2.13503 | +21.71 | take_profit |
| 06-21 20:03 | ADA | Sell | 0.162249→0.16178 | +1.04 | timeout |
| 06-21 12:05 | ETC | Sell | 7.6174→7.36094 | +16.38 | timeout |
| 06-21 10:17 | LTC | Sell | 44.085→45.1889 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 08:05 | HBAR | Sell | 0.080154→0.0803391 | -1.60 | timeout |
| 06-20 12:16 | ACE | Buy | 0.0849212→0.0827379 | -13.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 08:06 | BNB | Sell | 579.415→586.827 | -6.62 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:07 | ETH | Sell | 1685.83→1708.47 | -7.11 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:06 | BTC | Sell | 62627.9→63425.2 | -6.84 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:04 | LTC | Sell | 44.4359→43.973 | +4.68 | timeout |
| 06-19 12:47 | DOT | Buy | 0.969222→0.944311 | -13.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:53 | LINK | Buy | 7.9965→7.79475 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:51 | SOL | Sell | 71.8882→68.7413 | +21.56 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:25 | ADA | Buy | 0.166232→0.162068 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:18 | AVAX | Sell | 6.75201→6.45161 | +21.73 | take_profit |
| 06-18 04:11 | BNB | Buy | 605.541→590.357 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 03:57 | DOT | Sell | 1.02654→0.981345 | +21.56 | take_profit |
| 06-18 03:28 | KAS | Buy | 0.031884→0.0310837 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 20:06 | LINK | Sell | 8.28513→8.04871 | +13.94 | timeout |
| 06-17 19:38 | SUI | Buy | 0.794499→0.774529 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:28 | BTC | Sell | 64843.8→66443.5 | -12.79 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 10:03 | XMR | Buy | 351.778→342.883 | -13.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 01:09 | DOT | Sell | 0.99883→1.02467 | -13.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 21:16 | BCH | Sell | 218.245→223.718 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 17:49 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0129932→0.0135666 | +21.61 | take_profit |
| 06-16 14:31 | OP | Buy | 0.108497→0.105761 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 12:09 | LTC | Sell | 45.3607→45.5454 | -2.58 | timeout |
| 06-16 08:45 | AVAX | Sell | 6.82129→6.99204 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:16 | XLM | Sell | 0.213697→0.219124 | -13.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:27 | SOL | Buy | 75.0373→73.1754 | -12.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:54 | XRP | Buy | 1.26011→1.22848 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:24 | ETH | Buy | 1841.48→1795.12 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 21:31 | LINK | Buy | 8.54874→8.33505 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 13:18 | UNI | Buy | 2.59825→2.71242 | +21.52 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:16 | ETH | Buy | 1726.57→1803.52 | +21.80 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:08 | ETC | Buy | 7.28342→7.605 | +21.63 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.1843→1.23579 | +21.27 | take_profit |
| 06-15 03:44 | DOT | Sell | 0.978425→1.00305 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 00:06 | AAVE | Sell | 66.7793→68.3131 | -11.93 | timeout |
| 06-14 23:52 | SOL | Buy | 68.2552→71.2383 | +21.51 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:36 | ONDO | Buy | 0.345826→0.36087 | +21.30 | take_profit |
| 06-14 16:08 | LTC | Buy | 43.2788→44.073 | +8.79 | timeout |
| 06-14 12:28 | ADA | Buy | 0.173443→0.169103 | -12.73 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 18:12 | XLM | Buy | 0.190458→0.185631 | -13.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 14:15 | XRP | Sell | 1.12862→1.15687 | -12.83 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 09:33 | FIL | Buy | 0.749457→0.782084 | +21.32 | take_profit |
| 06-13 07:18 | RENDER | Sell | 1.66178→1.70338 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 06:10 | OP | Sell | 0.100285→0.102977 | -14.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 16:08 | LTC | Sell | 42.6793→42.9247 | -3.23 | timeout |
| 06-12 16:08 | BTC | Buy | 62598.1→63718.8 | +8.37 | timeout |
| 06-12 14:20 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0864504→0.0886244 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 14:20 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0848382→0.0885359 | +21.17 | take_profit |
| 06-12 09:33 | APT | Sell | 0.63994→0.656192 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 04:26 | ADA | Buy | 0.165401→0.172607 | +21.18 | take_profit |
| 06-12 00:06 | LTC | Buy | 42.1115→42.4344 | +3.61 | timeout |
| 06-11 03:55 | SUI | Sell | 0.733037→0.751583 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 03:55 | FIL | Sell | 0.735736→0.754766 | -13.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 03:55 | LINK | Sell | 7.57221→7.76642 | -13.29 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:42 | SOL | Sell | 63.4605→65.0423 | -12.89 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 21:50 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0790198→0.0770192 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 17:29 | ADA | Buy | 0.164561→0.16045 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0807802→0.0787109 | -13.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:06 | ETC | Sell | 6.95906→7.02916 | -5.49 | timeout |
| 06-10 15:46 | BTC | Sell | 61019.9→62522.4 | -12.71 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
200
closed
36%
win rate
-177.12
total pnl ($)
-17.9 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL | 13 | 46% | +15.0 | +10.79 |
| LINK | 13 | 31% | -50.4 | -32.38 |
| BTC | 10 | 30% | -40.6 | -20.55 |
| XRP | 9 | 33% | -30.1 | -13.08 |
| ETH | 9 | 56% | +102.7 | +46.17 |
| LTC | 9 | 44% | -14.1 | -6.20 |
| ADA | 9 | 44% | +16.5 | +7.23 |
| DOT | 8 | 12% | -145.1 | -58.03 |
| APT | 7 | 29% | -112.1 | -39.13 |
| HYPE | 7 | 43% | +1.7 | +0.61 |
| BNB | 6 | 17% | -95.2 | -28.30 |
| SUI | 6 | 17% | -146.6 | -44.09 |
| KAS | 6 | 50% | +86.7 | +26.02 |
| NEAR | 5 | 60% | +154.8 | +38.70 |
| INJ | 5 | 20% | -127.8 | -32.25 |
| UNI | 5 | 40% | -27.3 | -6.82 |
| OP | 5 | 20% | -126.5 | -31.87 |
| FIL | 5 | 60% | +83.6 | +20.91 |
| DOGE | 5 | 40% | +13.6 | +3.46 |
| ETC | 5 | 40% | +23.1 | +5.78 |
| ONDO | 4 | 75% | +256.6 | +51.32 |
| ARB | 4 | 25% | -89.6 | -17.38 |
| XMR | 4 | 50% | +89.0 | +17.79 |
| HBAR | 4 | 0% | -205.9 | -41.18 |
| ATOM | 3 | 33% | -42.4 | -6.34 |
| ICP | 3 | 33% | -33.7 | -5.06 |
| RENDER | 3 | 33% | -30.8 | -4.62 |
| BCH | 3 | 33% | -30.6 | -4.59 |
| SAGA | 3 | 67% | +201.0 | +30.14 |
| ACE | 3 | 33% | -27.5 | -4.13 |
| AAVE | 3 | 33% | -23.4 | -3.50 |
| AVAX | 3 | 33% | -28.1 | -4.29 |
| XLM | 3 | 0% | -265.8 | -39.87 |
| GOAT | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| CHILLGUY | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| TRX | 2 | 50% | +30.8 | +3.08 |
| BLUR | 2 | 50% | +87.4 | +8.74 |
| ZEREBRO | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 17)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 20:18 | XLM | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-26 20:18 | BLUR | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-26 08:24 | BNB | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-26 08:24 | SOL | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-26 04:12 | ATOM | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-26 04:12 | NEAR | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-26 00:12 | INJ | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 16:13 | HBAR | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 16:12 | TRX | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 12:20 | KAS | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-25 12:20 | ICP | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-24 20:22 | XMR | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-24 20:22 | HBAR | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-24 20:22 | SOL | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-24 16:23 | BTC | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-24 12:22 | INJ | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-24 12:22 | INJ | Sell | stale_intent |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||