185
closed trades
37%
win rate
-113.71
total pnl ($)
0.938
weight
7d window — n=45 wr=38% pnl=-49.36
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-28 22:08:35 (30.9d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
top_trader_directional_veto
n: 92
· wr: 20.7%
· total_bps: -2214.7
· mean_bps: -24.07
· sharpe: -0.18
· max_dd_bps: -2971.4
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 16:10 | BCH | Sell | 197.031→192.478 | +11.10 | timeout |
| 06-28 06:17 | RENDER | Sell | 1.6001→1.53038 | +21.34 | take_profit |
| 06-28 06:15 | SUI | Sell | 0.708823→0.677969 | +21.09 | take_profit |
| 06-28 04:05 | LINK | Buy | 7.36074→7.29698 | -4.74 | timeout |
| 06-27 11:37 | DOT | Buy | 0.859175→0.837611 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 07:32 | INJ | Sell | 4.86408→4.98654 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 04:04 | TRX | Buy | 0.322851→0.32041 | -4.23 | timeout |
| 06-27 01:01 | XLM | Buy | 0.179935→0.175388 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 20:43 | AAVE | Buy | 95.3658→92.9812 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 13:51 | HYPE | Sell | 61.6426→63.1854 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 12:43 | BNB | Buy | 568.202→553.764 | -13.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 12:43 | NEAR | Buy | 1.82025→1.77327 | -13.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 10:40 | ATOM | Buy | 1.63791→1.5967 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 10:39 | SOL | Buy | 70.4726→68.7253 | -12.86 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 07:07 | UNI | Sell | 2.85529→2.92799 | -13.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:02 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0731073→0.0711996 | -13.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 02:13 | INJ | Buy | 4.33208→4.22103 | -13.24 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 01:30 | APT | Buy | 0.596649→0.581364 | -13.17 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 23:27 | SOL | Sell | 66.3011→67.9792 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 17:59 | HYPE | Sell | 61.7586→63.3045 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:59 | KAS | Sell | 0.0277861→0.0265556 | +21.69 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:48 | ICP | Sell | 2.23624→2.13873 | +21.35 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:42 | APT | Buy | 0.629757→0.613839 | -13.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 10:47 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0753858→0.0734908 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:24 | BTC | Sell | 60268→61753.9 | -12.79 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:02 | SOL | Sell | 67.1949→68.8647 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 04:57 | ETH | Sell | 1594.94→1634.38 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 22:00 | ADA | Buy | 0.141615→0.147813 | +21.48 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:57 | SOL | Sell | 69.2986→66.2659 | +21.46 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | ETH | Sell | 1678.23→1604.56 | +21.41 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | LINK | Sell | 7.64409→7.30993 | +21.40 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:47 | BTC | Sell | 62800.9→60043 | +21.24 | take_profit |
| 06-24 13:22 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0808808→0.0773493 | +21.27 | take_profit |
| 06-23 10:59 | SUI | Sell | 0.685169→0.702537 | -13.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | ADA | Buy | 0.15849→0.154414 | -13.17 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | FIL | Sell | 0.80052→0.762851 | +23.08 | take_profit |
| 06-23 06:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.88267→7.68523 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:20 | BNB | Buy | 594.859→579.845 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:08 | BTC | Buy | 64694.2→63078.3 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 13:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0831408→0.0867583 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-22 12:07 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0804819→0.080132 | +1.72 | timeout |
| 06-22 04:07 | SUI | Sell | 0.708123→0.701435 | +4.50 | timeout |
| 06-22 03:46 | HYPE | Sell | 68.2629→65.2653 | +21.51 | take_profit |
| 06-22 00:37 | APT | Sell | 0.651437→0.668001 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 20:04 | ADA | Sell | 0.162699→0.16181 | +2.33 | timeout |
| 06-21 12:04 | ETC | Sell | 7.62009→7.36034 | +16.59 | timeout |
| 06-21 08:02 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0802039→0.0803871 | -1.59 | timeout |
| 06-20 22:28 | AAVE | Sell | 74.3034→76.1671 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 12:04 | TRX | Sell | 0.32049→0.324761 | -7.11 | timeout |
| 06-20 11:31 | SAGA | Sell | 0.0131967→0.0135301 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 08:04 | BNB | Sell | 580.435→587.127 | -5.99 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:04 | LTC | Sell | 44.4449→44.02 | +4.25 | timeout |
| 06-19 12:33 | BTC | Sell | 64595.8→62428.1 | +16.19 | timeout |
| 06-19 04:02 | TRX | Sell | 0.32124→0.32106 | -0.17 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:53 | SOL | Sell | 71.8432→68.7003 | +21.55 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:45 | ETH | Sell | 1773.52→1695.77 | +21.30 | take_profit |
| 06-18 04:01 | DOT | Sell | 1.02454→0.979415 | +21.57 | take_profit |
| 06-17 20:02 | LINK | Sell | 8.28933→8.03741 | +14.90 | timeout |
| 06-17 16:28 | BTC | Sell | 64824.8→66422.5 | -12.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 12:11 | UNI | Sell | 3.22669→3.30758 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 10:03 | XMR | Buy | 351.928→343.133 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 01:46 | DOT | Sell | 1.00025→1.02547 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 00:05 | BNB | Sell | 619.125→604.901 | +11.26 | timeout |
| 06-16 21:16 | BCH | Sell | 217.706→223.227 | -13.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 16:04 | TRX | Sell | 0.32088→0.317209 | +5.27 | timeout |
| 06-16 12:21 | XLM | Sell | 0.227893→0.233635 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 12:02 | LTC | Sell | 45.3956→45.5764 | -2.52 | timeout |
| 06-16 08:45 | AVAX | Sell | 6.82509→6.99684 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 07:40 | KAS | Sell | 0.0333477→0.0341936 | -13.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:22 | ACE | Sell | 0.0891777→0.0852213 | +21.73 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:13 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0810877→0.0831243 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 13:08 | ETC | Buy | 7.28342→7.605 | +21.63 | take_profit |
| 06-15 11:39 | HYPE | Buy | 65.6334→68.5469 | +21.74 | take_profit |
| 06-15 03:43 | DOT | Sell | 0.977616→1.00265 | -13.25 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 03:36 | FIL | Sell | 0.786763→0.806805 | -13.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 00:06 | AAVE | Sell | 66.7793→68.3131 | -11.93 | timeout |
| 06-14 23:52 | SOL | Buy | 68.2652→71.2493 | +21.52 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:36 | ONDO | Buy | 0.345826→0.36098 | +21.46 | take_profit |
| 06-14 14:31 | NEAR | Buy | 2.12543→2.07234 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 20:01 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0786333→0.0778745 | +4.38 | timeout |
| 06-13 14:11 | XRP | Sell | 1.12792→1.15617 | -12.83 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 12:12 | SUI | Sell | 0.755241→0.770182 | -10.12 | timeout |
| 06-13 07:19 | RENDER | Sell | 1.66218→1.70508 | -13.35 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 06:10 | OP | Sell | 0.100275→0.102977 | -14.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 16:07 | LTC | Sell | 42.6793→42.9267 | -3.27 | timeout |
| 06-12 16:06 | BTC | Buy | 62567.1→63747.8 | +8.84 | timeout |
| 06-12 14:20 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0848212→0.0885219 | +21.18 | take_profit |
| 06-12 06:33 | APT | Buy | 0.652763→0.636422 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 00:05 | LTC | Buy | 42.0645→42.4144 | +3.82 | timeout |
| 06-11 17:19 | NEAR | Buy | 2.0123→1.96203 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 03:55 | SUI | Sell | 0.734276→0.752804 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 03:55 | FIL | Sell | 0.737226→0.757178 | -13.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 03:55 | LINK | Sell | 7.57221→7.78684 | -14.64 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:42 | SOL | Sell | 63.4955→65.0833 | -12.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 21:50 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0790248→0.0770192 | -13.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 17:29 | ADA | Buy | 0.164561→0.16044 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0808302→0.0788109 | -12.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:06 | ETC | Sell | 6.95906→7.02916 | -5.49 | timeout |
| 06-10 13:49 | BTC | Sell | 60966→62470.3 | -12.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 13:30 | APT | Sell | 0.636941→0.65319 | -13.22 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
185
closed
37%
win rate
-113.71
total pnl ($)
-12.5 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
5
closed
0%
win rate
-27.09
total pnl ($)
-90.7 bps
avg bps net
Live WR is 0% of paper WR (0% vs 37%)
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUI | 11 | 45% | -9.4 | -4.66 |
| HBAR | 10 | 20% | -184.0 | -91.98 |
| SOL | 10 | 40% | +16.3 | +8.76 |
| BTC | 10 | 40% | -17.1 | -8.85 |
| ADA | 8 | 50% | +53.8 | +21.19 |
| HYPE | 7 | 43% | +36.3 | +12.69 |
| LINK | 7 | 29% | -63.9 | -22.30 |
| DOT | 7 | 14% | -126.7 | -44.33 |
| UNI | 6 | 33% | -4.6 | -1.39 |
| ETH | 6 | 83% | +261.1 | +78.32 |
| FIL | 6 | 33% | -90.9 | -27.28 |
| KAS | 6 | 50% | +87.0 | +26.11 |
| BNB | 6 | 33% | -27.9 | -7.81 |
| APT | 6 | 0% | -262.5 | -78.68 |
| BCH | 5 | 40% | -26.7 | -6.68 |
| XRP | 5 | 60% | +83.1 | +21.44 |
| NEAR | 5 | 20% | -123.4 | -30.99 |
| LTC | 5 | 40% | -44.2 | -11.05 |
| TRX | 5 | 40% | +36.2 | +9.04 |
| ACE | 4 | 50% | +65.8 | +13.17 |
| RENDER | 4 | 50% | +82.3 | +16.45 |
| XLM | 4 | 0% | -265.4 | -53.08 |
| DOGE | 4 | 75% | +256.1 | +51.17 |
| ETC | 4 | 75% | +271.0 | +54.19 |
| AAVE | 4 | 0% | -254.2 | -50.85 |
| ATOM | 3 | 33% | -31.7 | -4.76 |
| SAGA | 3 | 67% | +114.5 | +17.17 |
| XMR | 3 | 67% | +198.4 | +29.75 |
| ICP | 3 | 33% | -36.1 | -5.42 |
| INJ | 3 | 0% | -264.5 | -39.66 |
| ARB | 3 | 33% | -30.8 | -4.31 |
| GOAT | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| CHILLGUY | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| OP | 2 | 0% | -269.5 | -27.08 |
| ZEREBRO | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| ONDO | 2 | 100% | +427.8 | +42.78 |
| BLUR | 1 | 100% | +448.6 | +22.43 |
| AVAX | 1 | 0% | -260.6 | -13.04 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||