top_trader_contrarian_z15_variant · strategy

209

closed trades

39%

win rate

+8.64

total pnl ($)

1.356

weight

7d window — n=40 wr=40% pnl=+21.90 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-23 03:07:10 (35.5d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: avo

n: 119 · wr: 37.8% · total_bps: -2534.5 · mean_bps: -21.30 · sharpe: -0.11 · max_dd_bps: -4023.7

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)

Last 100 trades

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-27 04:04	TRX	Buy	0.322851→0.32039	-4.26	timeout
06-26 12:40	NEAR	Buy	1.82196→1.77627	-13.02	stop_loss
06-26 10:52	ATOM	Buy	1.63601→1.5944	-13.20	stop_loss
06-26 08:02	TRX	Buy	0.325661→0.322289	-5.63	timeout
06-26 02:13	XRP	Buy	1.04386→1.01764	-13.01	stop_loss
06-26 01:30	APT	Buy	0.596549→0.581364	-13.09	stop_loss
06-25 23:26	SOL	Sell	66.2511→67.9061	-12.92	stop_loss
06-25 22:02	OP	Sell	0.103224→0.105889	-13.32	stop_loss
06-25 17:59	HYPE	Sell	61.7576→63.3034	-12.97	stop_loss
06-25 13:51	ICP	Sell	2.22284→2.12543	+21.46	take_profit
06-25 13:47	XRP	Sell	1.09283→1.04526	+21.16	take_profit
06-25 13:43	SUI	Buy	0.700105→0.682618	-12.93	stop_loss
06-25 13:40	ADA	Buy	0.149757→0.14599	-13.02	stop_loss
06-25 11:11	INJ	Buy	4.26997→4.16298	-13.00	stop_loss
06-25 05:24	BTC	Sell	60284→61770	-12.79	stop_loss
06-25 05:02	SOL	Sell	67.0079→68.6866	-13.00	stop_loss
06-25 04:57	ETH	Sell	1595.04→1634.48	-12.79	stop_loss
06-24 16:51	ETH	Sell	1658.93→1586.16	+21.26	take_profit
06-24 16:51	SOL	Sell	69.8855→66.81	+21.54	take_profit
06-24 16:51	LINK	Sell	7.65878→7.32483	+21.21	take_profit
06-24 13:48	DOGE	Sell	0.0802039→0.0766992	+21.33	take_profit
06-24 10:15	ADA	Sell	0.153072→0.146397	+21.10	take_profit
06-23 08:24	ETH	Sell	1721.23→1645.66	+21.42	take_profit
06-23 08:15	DOGE	Sell	0.0827883→0.0791798	+21.33	take_profit
06-23 06:21	LINK	Buy	7.87017→7.67124	-13.13	stop_loss
06-23 06:14	SUI	Sell	0.728098→0.696254	+21.41	take_profit
06-23 04:50	XRP	Buy	1.14799→1.11906	-13.01	stop_loss
06-23 00:31	XMR	Sell	318.1→326.074	-12.98	stop_loss
06-22 22:28	SOL	Buy	73.203→71.3866	-12.57	stop_loss
06-22 22:28	ETH	Buy	1766.08→1722.47	-12.78	stop_loss
06-22 16:01	XRP	Sell	1.14851→1.13858	+3.73	timeout
06-22 11:35	SUI	Buy	0.700425→0.731007	+21.33	take_profit
06-22 04:08	BTC	Buy	63993.2→63907.8	-1.17	timeout
06-22 01:23	UNI	Sell	2.99755→3.0729	-13.02	stop_loss
06-22 00:05	BNB	Sell	586.343→584.776	+0.78	timeout
06-21 20:50	NEAR	Sell	2.23414→2.13503	+21.73	take_profit
06-21 10:24	FIL	Sell	0.781844→0.802752	-13.82	stop_loss
06-21 10:17	LTC	Sell	44.085→45.1889	-13.14	stop_loss
06-21 01:14	ACE	Buy	0.091923→0.0964759	+24.31	take_profit
06-20 22:34	AAVE	Buy	73.3463→76.5479	+21.37	take_profit
06-20 14:05	ARB	Buy	0.0842811→0.0821683	-12.98	stop_loss
06-20 04:07	ETH	Sell	1685.83→1708.47	-7.11	timeout
06-20 04:06	BTC	Sell	62627.9→63425.2	-6.84	timeout
06-20 04:06	XRP	Sell	1.14431→1.13968	+1.48	timeout
06-20 04:06	SOL	Sell	68.7707→69.9695	-9.04	timeout
06-19 20:05	BNB	Sell	588.853→579.755	+6.95	timeout
06-18 15:45	ETH	Sell	1773.32→1695.57	+21.14	take_profit
06-18 15:40	DOT	Sell	0.997061→0.953238	+21.53	take_profit
06-18 15:25	ADA	Buy	0.166232→0.162068	-12.95	stop_loss
06-18 15:18	AVAX	Sell	6.72562→6.43281	+21.25	take_profit
06-18 05:04	SUI	Sell	0.773527→0.739815	+21.36	take_profit
06-18 03:57	DOT	Sell	1.02654→0.981345	+21.56	take_profit
06-17 19:39	ICP	Buy	2.4132→2.35024	-13.50	stop_loss
06-17 16:28	BTC	Sell	64843.8→66443.5	-12.79	stop_loss
06-17 16:07	BNB	Sell	614.586→606.111	+6.67	timeout
06-17 14:06	SAGA	Sell	0.0137866→0.0141806	-14.74	stop_loss
06-17 08:37	DOGE	Buy	0.0882661→0.0860564	-13.08	stop_loss
06-17 08:05	BTC	Buy	66564.3→65447.7	-8.75	timeout
06-17 01:49	SUI	Sell	0.792772→0.812679	-12.84	stop_loss
06-17 01:41	UNI	Buy	3.31573→3.45993	+21.30	take_profit
06-16 21:16	BCH	Sell	218.245→223.718	-12.99	stop_loss
06-16 08:45	AVAX	Sell	6.82129→6.99204	-12.96	stop_loss
06-16 07:58	ONDO	Sell	0.369708→0.378964	-12.97	stop_loss
06-16 02:29	SAGA	Buy	0.0130133→0.0126805	-13.24	stop_loss
06-16 02:27	SOL	Buy	75.0373→73.1754	-12.85	stop_loss
06-15 22:24	ETH	Buy	1841.48→1795.12	-13.06	stop_loss
06-15 20:49	ADA	Buy	0.185306→0.180644	-13.00	stop_loss
06-15 19:19	DOT	Buy	1.04366→1.01714	-13.16	stop_loss
06-15 17:33	APT	Buy	0.713678→0.695678	-13.07	stop_loss
06-15 15:40	SOL	Buy	71.3697→74.4888	+21.38	take_profit
06-15 13:16	ETH	Buy	1726.57→1803.52	+21.80	take_profit
06-15 12:42	DOGE	Buy	0.0863296→0.0900995	+21.26	take_profit
06-15 12:24	XRP	Buy	1.1843→1.23579	+21.27	take_profit
06-15 11:20	AVAX	Sell	6.75471→6.92439	-12.97	stop_loss
06-15 04:08	BTC	Buy	64044.2→65733.7	+12.69	timeout
06-15 00:06	ETH	Buy	1677.07→1723.63	+13.32	timeout
06-14 21:50	BCH	Sell	203.169→208.326	-13.14	stop_loss
06-14 20:10	SUI	Buy	0.762931→0.748643	-9.80	timeout
06-14 12:28	ADA	Buy	0.173443→0.169103	-12.73	stop_loss
06-14 08:02	LTC	Buy	42.9807→43.993	+11.66	timeout
06-13 14:15	XRP	Sell	1.12862→1.15687	-12.83	stop_loss
06-13 08:32	OP	Sell	0.106503→0.109222	-13.21	stop_loss
06-13 08:01	TRX	Buy	0.312578→0.315221	+3.78	timeout
06-13 06:52	DOT	Sell	0.957311→0.981386	-13.02	stop_loss
06-13 06:47	AAVE	Sell	64.1949→65.8063	-13.00	stop_loss
06-12 22:25	SAGA	Sell	0.0126168→0.0129397	-13.24	stop_loss
06-12 16:09	BTC	Buy	62583.1→63716.8	+8.47	timeout
06-12 16:08	LTC	Sell	42.6793→42.9247	-3.23	timeout
06-12 14:20	DOGE	Buy	0.0848222→0.0885219	+21.18	take_profit
06-12 11:13	BLUR	Buy	0.0177334→0.0185094	+21.43	take_profit
06-11 18:00	SAGA	Sell	0.0122669→0.0125994	-14.00	stop_loss
06-11 11:30	ETH	Sell	1626.44→1666.7	-12.77	stop_loss
06-11 10:55	BTC	Sell	61672.9→63192.7	-12.60	stop_loss
06-11 03:55	SUI	Sell	0.731717→0.750202	-13.03	stop_loss
06-11 03:55	LINK	Sell	7.57221→7.78684	-14.64	stop_loss
06-11 01:41	SOL	Sell	63.3125→64.8872	-12.87	stop_loss
06-10 21:54	DOT	Sell	0.946463→0.905116	+21.39	take_profit
06-10 19:47	LINK	Sell	7.93861→7.62	+18.98	timeout
06-10 16:47	ADA	Buy	0.164811→0.160609	-13.19	stop_loss
06-10 16:07	ETC	Sell	6.95516→7.03076	-5.88	timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)

209

closed

39%

win rate

+8.64

total pnl ($)

+0.8 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
XRP	15	47%	+1.0	+0.87
SOL	14	36%	-57.7	-39.57
ETH	13	54%	+84.2	+54.14
SUI	13	38%	+8.3	+5.61
BTC	12	42%	-0.7	-0.03
ADA	11	27%	-60.7	-33.80
LTC	9	11%	-169.0	-75.91
DOGE	9	67%	+213.3	+96.01
LINK	8	50%	+74.5	+28.91
AVAX	7	29%	-103.4	-36.39
DOT	7	43%	+70.1	+24.52
ICP	6	67%	+197.1	+59.13
TRX	6	50%	-8.4	-2.53
NEAR	5	80%	+291.9	+72.93
ACE	5	40%	+13.0	+3.25
OP	5	0%	-264.8	-66.04
BNB	5	80%	+92.4	+22.86
UNI	5	60%	+186.3	+46.57
SAGA	5	20%	-131.1	-32.77
APT	4	25%	-88.7	-17.74
ATOM	4	25%	-96.5	-19.43
ONDO	4	50%	+83.4	+16.68
BLUR	4	75%	+224.6	+44.92
ETC	3	0%	-225.2	-33.77
ARB	3	0%	-259.5	-38.42
BCH	3	33%	-31.3	-4.69
INJ	3	0%	-262.6	-39.39
HYPE	3	33%	-29.5	-4.42
AAVE	3	33%	-30.5	-4.57
ZEREBRO	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40
RENDER	2	50%	+82.8	+8.28
FIL	2	0%	-268.0	-26.80
CHILLGUY	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40
KAS	2	50%	+88.4	+8.84
XMR	2	0%	-260.0	-26.00
GOAT	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40
XLM	1	100%	+431.9	+21.60

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

time	sym	side	reason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
no postmortems

More…