token_unlock_supply_shock_short

not live
22
closed trades
36%
win rate
+2.79
total pnl ($)
1.101
weight
7d window — n=4 wr=75% pnl=-0.71  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-16 22:43:00 (36.5d ago) · src: canon
verdict: PASS  ·  strict: STRICT-PASS  ·  batch: adu
n: 5  ·  wr: 80.0%  ·  total_bps: +297.9  ·  mean_bps: +59.58  ·  sharpe: +0.47  ·  max_dd_bps: -156.6
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 22 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-20 10:29BTCSell63930.8→63652.2+1.22timeout
06-20 10:29ETHSell1741.83→1728.07+2.45timeout
06-17 10:26BTCSell65723.7→64893.2+3.94timeout
06-15 11:26ETHSell1724.33→1766.96-8.33stop_loss
06-14 10:27ETHSell1670.93→1677.67-1.57timeout
06-14 10:27BTCSell63567.8→64580.2-5.42timeout
06-11 10:20ETHSell1670.93→1655.07+2.95timeout
06-11 10:19BTCSell62706.9→62795.1-0.58timeout
06-07 05:18BTCSell60519→62014.1-8.33stop_loss
06-07 01:17ETHSell1552.74→1591.15-8.32stop_loss
06-04 00:24BTCSell66994.7→64053.2+13.97take_profit
06-03 20:02ETHSell1874.21→1791.98+13.96take_profit
05-23 23:59BTCSell77606.1→76723.8+3.48timeout
05-23 07:46ETHSell2133.39→2039.7+14.01take_profit
05-20 23:59BTCSell76982.2→77525.9-2.54timeout
05-20 23:59ETHSell2129.39→2128.91-0.15timeout
05-13 22:43BTCSell81715.9→81724.1-0.25timeout
05-13 22:43ETHSell2339.37→2339.83-0.28timeout
05-13 13:22ETHSell2329.07→2339.83-1.72timeout
05-13 13:22BTCSell81226.9→81724.1-2.20timeout
05-10 13:23BTCSell79712→80952-5.28timeout
05-09 17:11ETHSell2277.37→2333.5-8.25stop_loss

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
22
closed
36%
win rate
+2.79
total pnl ($)
+1.8 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
ETH1136%+11.4+4.76
BTC1136%-7.7-1.97

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-10 13:23BTCSell-5.28The market was in a mild uptrend with BTC up 1.70% over 24 hours and positive short-term momentum. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the anticipated reversal materialized, as the market continued to grind higher without …
05-10 13:23BTCSell-5.28The market was in a mild uptrend with BTC up 1.70% over 24 hours and positive short-term momentum. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the anticipated reversal materialized, as the market continued to grind higher.
05-10 13:23BTCSell-5.28The market was in a mild uptrend with low volatility, as BTC posted small gains across all timeframes. The short thesis failed because the trade expired without a significant move, and the close_reason of timeout indicates the expected bearish catalyst neve…
05-10 13:23BTCSell-5.28The market was in a mild uptrend with BTC gaining 1.70% over 24 hours and positive short-term momentum. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected bearish move materialized, as the market continued to grind higher ag…
05-10 13:23BTCSell-5.28The market was in a mild uptrend with BTC gaining 1.70% over 24 hours and neutral funding. The short thesis failed because the trade expired before a bearish move materialized, as the timeout close_reason indicates the position was closed without hitting a …
05-10 13:23BTCSell-5.28The market was in a low-volatility, sideways grind with BTC up 0.11% on the hour and neutral funding, offering no clear directional edge. The short thesis failed because the trade expired without a meaningful move, as the timeout close captured only minor a…
05-10 13:23BTCSell-5.28The market was in a mild uptrend with low volatility, as BTC posted small gains across timeframes and funding rates remained near neutral. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before a significant move materialized, leaving no opp…
05-10 13:23BTCSell-5.28The market was in a mild uptrend with low volatility, as BTC posted small gains across timeframes and funding remained neutral. The short thesis failed because the trade expired via timeout without reaching a profitable exit, as the sideways drift prevented…
05-10 13:23BTCSell-5.28The market was in a low-volatility, sideways grind with neutral funding and flat OI, offering no clear directional edge. The thesis failed because the trade was entered without a catalyst and expired via timeout, as the lack of momentum prevented any profit…
05-10 13:23BTCSell-5.28The market was in a low-volatility, sideways grind with neutral funding and flat OI, offering no clear directional edge. The thesis failed because the short lacked a catalyst or momentum to materialize, and the timeout closed the trade before any move devel…