9
closed trades
33%
win rate
-11.71
total pnl ($)
1.215
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-18 19:14:15 (38.9d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
aan__restored_727cc240
n: 17
· wr: 35.3%
· total_bps: -549.5
· mean_bps: -32.33
· sharpe: -0.53
· max_dd_bps: -618.0
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 9 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-23 08:19 | BTC | Sell | 75472.2→74656.7 | +7.40 | timeout |
| 05-12 04:43 | BTC | Sell | 81715.9→81724.1 | -0.70 | timeout |
| 05-06 06:37 | BTC | Sell | 79914→81448.8 | -14.97 | stop_loss |
| 05-04 21:03 | BTC | Sell | 80265→80014 | +1.62 | timeout |
| 05-04 16:03 | BTC | Sell | 79739→79966 | -2.89 | timeout |
| 05-04 11:01 | BTC | Sell | 80338→78969.9 | +12.11 | timeout |
| 05-01 10:07 | BTC | Sell | 77085.1→77199.9 | -1.76 | timeout |
| 05-01 05:06 | BTC | Sell | 76280.2→77127.9 | -9.06 | timeout |
| 04-30 09:04 | BTC | Sell | 75738→76017.8 | -3.46 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
9
closed
33%
win rate
-11.71
total pnl ($)
-17.3 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 9 | 33% | -17.3 | -11.71 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-06 06:37 | BTC | Sell | -14.97 | The market was in a tight consolidation phase with low volatility and neutral funding rates, creating a fragile environment for directional bets. The short thesis failed because the price immediately rejected the entry level and triggered the stop loss, con… |
| 05-04 21:03 | BTC | Sell | +1.62 | The market was in a tight consolidation phase with negligible volatility and neutral funding rates around the $80,285 level. The trade closed due to a timeout because the price failed to move sufficiently in the anticipated direction to trigger an exit with… |
| 05-04 16:03 | BTC | Sell | -2.89 | The market exhibited a neutral regime with minimal volatility and flat funding rates, offering no clear directional bias. The trade failed because the anticipated move did not materialize within the allocated time window, resulting in a timeout exit. |
| 05-01 10:07 | BTC | Sell | -1.76 | BTC traded sideways-to-slightly-lower around $77,200 over the 6-hour hold, gaining only 1.44% on the 24h but showing flat intraday action with -0.12% in the prior hour. The stablecoin supply slope inversion short thesis failed to trigger a meaningful downsi… |
| 05-01 05:06 | BTC | Sell | -9.06 | # Trade Analysis 1. **Market Context at Close**: Bitcoin was trading around $77,106 with flat 1-hour momentum (-0.00%), modest 24-hour gains (+2.04%), and slight weekly weakness (-0.82%), while funding rates remained slightly negative (-0.86 bps), indicati… |
| 04-30 09:04 | BTC | SELL | +2.11 | # Trade Close Analysis: BTC Stablecoin Supply Slope Inversion Short BTC was flat to slightly negative intraday (1h: -0.04%) with weak 24h and 7d performance (-1.20% and -2.39%), indicating sideways consolidation with a mild bearish bias. The stablecoin sup… |