stablecoin_supply_deceleration_short · strategy

128

closed trades

43%

win rate

-61.00

total pnl ($)

1.136

weight

7d window — n=28 wr=32% pnl=-17.92 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-06-04 03:57:13 (24.0d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: jl

n: 6 · wr: 50.0% · total_bps: +53.3 · mean_bps: +8.89 · sharpe: +0.07 · max_dd_bps: -228.5

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)

Last 100 trades

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-28 00:11	BTC	Sell	60225→60089	+0.68	timeout
06-27 18:08	BTC	Sell	60510→60487	-0.26	timeout
06-27 12:05	BTC	Sell	60407→60309	+0.36	timeout
06-27 06:01	BTC	Sell	60215→60183	-0.18	timeout
06-26 23:59	BTC	Sell	60022→60099	-1.09	timeout
06-26 18:09	BTC	Sell	60129→60083	-0.06	timeout
06-26 12:04	BTC	Sell	59479→59389	+0.31	timeout
06-26 05:58	BTC	Sell	59881→59950	-1.03	timeout
06-25 23:48	BTC	Sell	59763→59875	-1.39	timeout
06-25 17:44	BTC	Sell	59211→59543	-3.26	timeout
06-25 11:42	BTC	Sell	61445.9→61345.1	+0.37	timeout
06-25 05:09	BTC	Sell	60974→61742.9	-6.76	stop_loss
06-24 23:39	BTC	Sell	60822→61011.1	-2.01	timeout
06-24 17:37	BTC	Sell	60366→59509	+6.64	timeout
06-24 11:36	BTC	Sell	62539.9→62450.1	+0.27	timeout
06-24 05:33	BTC	Sell	62718.9→62898.1	-1.88	timeout
06-23 23:27	BTC	Sell	62572.9→62637.1	-0.96	timeout
06-23 17:30	BTC	Sell	62551.9→62624.1	-1.03	timeout
06-23 11:22	BTC	Sell	62378.9→62524.1	-1.62	timeout
06-23 05:21	BTC	Sell	63900.8→63549.2	+2.30	timeout
06-22 23:30	BTC	Sell	63968.8→64000.2	-0.70	timeout
06-22 17:28	BTC	Sell	64647.8→64574.2	+0.12	timeout
06-22 11:15	BTC	Sell	64176.8→64254.2	-1.05	timeout
06-22 05:12	BTC	Sell	63934.8→64246.2	-2.88	timeout
06-21 23:08	BTC	Sell	63648.8→63700.2	-0.85	timeout
06-21 17:03	BTC	Sell	64193.8→64136.2	-0.00	timeout
06-21 11:03	BTC	Sell	64189.8→64441.2	-2.41	timeout
06-21 05:01	BTC	Sell	64384.8→64270.2	+0.44	timeout
06-20 22:59	BTC	Sell	63985.8→64276.2	-2.72	timeout
06-20 16:55	BTC	Sell	64067.8→63978.2	+0.25	timeout
06-20 10:53	BTC	Sell	63666.8→63628.2	-0.14	timeout
06-20 04:51	BTC	Sell	63430.8→63548.2	-1.38	timeout
06-19 22:47	BTC	Sell	63085.8→63287.2	-2.04	timeout
06-19 16:44	BTC	Sell	63235.8→63255.2	-0.60	timeout
06-19 10:38	BTC	Sell	62410.9→62417.1	-0.50	timeout
06-19 04:33	BTC	Sell	62721.9→62604.1	+0.49	timeout
06-18 22:31	BTC	Sell	62930.9→62771.1	+0.82	timeout
06-18 16:35	BTC	Sell	63204.8→62660.1	+3.84	timeout
06-18 10:23	BTC	Sell	64419.8→63918.2	+3.45	timeout
06-18 04:22	BTC	Sell	64437.8→63918.2	+3.58	timeout
06-17 22:22	BTC	Sell	64289.8→64167.2	+0.50	timeout
06-17 16:17	BTC	Sell	65247.7→65952.3	-5.85	timeout
06-17 10:14	BTC	Sell	64964.8→64867.2	+0.30	timeout
06-17 04:11	BTC	Sell	65796.7→65878.3	-1.07	timeout
06-16 22:12	BTC	Sell	65848.7→65847.3	-0.44	timeout
06-16 16:05	BTC	Sell	65646.7→65862.3	-2.09	timeout
06-16 10:04	BTC	Sell	66815.7→66481.3	+2.05	timeout
06-16 04:01	BTC	Sell	65722.7→66139.3	-3.62	timeout
06-15 21:57	BTC	Sell	66476.7→66360.3	+0.43	timeout
06-15 15:53	BTC	Sell	66584.7→67221.4	-5.23	timeout
06-15 09:53	BTC	Sell	65684.7→65542.3	+0.63	timeout
06-15 03:51	BTC	Sell	65471.7→65903.3	-3.74	timeout
06-14 21:18	BTC	Sell	64019.8→64827.6	-6.76	stop_loss
06-14 15:43	BTC	Sell	63876.8→64022.2	-1.59	timeout
06-14 09:43	BTC	Sell	64447.8→64501.2	-0.86	timeout
06-14 03:39	BTC	Sell	64512.8→64473.2	-0.14	timeout
06-13 21:34	BTC	Sell	64217.8→64263.2	-0.80	timeout
06-13 15:34	BTC	Sell	64129.8→64272.2	-1.56	timeout
06-13 09:29	BTC	Sell	63785.8→63794.2	-0.51	timeout
06-13 03:29	BTC	Sell	63699.8→63459.2	+1.44	timeout
06-12 21:25	BTC	Sell	63501.8→63529.2	-0.66	timeout
06-12 15:13	BTC	Sell	63593.8→64396.4	-6.76	stop_loss
06-12 09:23	BTC	Sell	63512.8→63634.2	-1.40	timeout
06-12 03:21	BTC	Sell	63602.8→63441.2	+0.82	timeout
06-11 21:14	BTC	Sell	63508.8→63565.2	-0.89	timeout
06-11 15:09	BTC	Sell	62886.9→62758.1	+0.58	timeout
06-11 09:03	BTC	Sell	62742.9→62932.1	-1.95	timeout
06-11 03:01	BTC	Sell	62202.9→62140.1	+0.06	timeout
06-10 20:56	BTC	Sell	62001.9→61698.1	+2.00	timeout
06-10 14:55	BTC	Sell	62167.9→61944.1	+1.35	timeout
06-10 08:50	BTC	Sell	61673.9→61214.1	+3.27	timeout
06-09 16:44	BTC	Sell	61329.9→61155.1	+0.98	timeout
06-09 10:53	BTC	Sell	62642.9→62731.1	-1.16	timeout
06-09 04:40	BTC	Sell	62722.9→63291.2	-4.98	timeout
06-08 22:44	BTC	Sell	63802.8→63282.2	+3.63	timeout
06-08 16:44	BTC	Sell	63810.8→63640.2	+0.89	timeout
06-08 10:36	BTC	Sell	63289.8→63247.2	-0.11	timeout
06-08 04:30	BTC	Sell	63123.8→62925.1	+1.12	timeout
06-07 22:13	BTC	Sell	61789.9→62569.4	-6.76	stop_loss
06-07 16:23	BTC	Sell	61782.9→62242.1	-4.16	timeout
06-07 10:24	BTC	Sell	62626.9→62522.1	+0.39	timeout
06-07 04:12	BTC	Sell	61465.9→61510.1	-0.81	timeout
06-06 22:08	BTC	Sell	60702→60601	+0.38	timeout
06-06 16:05	BTC	Sell	60575→60922	-3.32	timeout
06-06 10:04	BTC	Sell	61131.9→60766	+2.55	timeout
06-06 04:03	BTC	Sell	60864→60742	+0.55	timeout
06-05 22:00	BTC	Sell	61623.9→61628.1	-0.48	timeout
06-05 16:10	BTC	Sell	60706→60025	+5.16	timeout
06-05 10:04	BTC	Sell	62527.9→62800.1	-2.63	timeout
06-05 04:47	BTC	Sell	62776.9→62874.1	-1.23	timeout
06-04 21:57	BTC	Sell	63522.8→63288.2	+1.40	timeout
06-04 16:16	BTC	Sell	64224.8→63701.2	+3.63	timeout
06-04 10:08	BTC	Sell	63280.8→62949.1	+2.17	timeout
06-04 05:32	BTC	Sell	64397.8→63982.2	+2.78	timeout
06-03 21:42	BTC	Sell	65284.7→65322.3	-0.74	timeout
06-03 14:26	BTC	Sell	66872.7→66776.3	+0.27	timeout
06-03 05:10	BTC	Sell	66298.7→67134.9	-6.76	stop_loss
06-03 00:12	BTC	Sell	66638.7→66801.3	-1.67	timeout
06-02 16:18	BTC	Sell	67293.6→68144.5	-6.77	stop_loss
06-02 08:09	BTC	Sell	69970.5→70013.5	-0.75	timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)

128

closed

43%

win rate

-61.00

total pnl ($)

-9.6 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
BTC	128	43%	-9.6	-61.00

Recent bounces (last 20 of 1)

time	sym	side	reason
06-27 23:13	BTC	Sell	circuit_breaker

Postmortem feed (last 10)

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
05-08 09:45	BTC	Sell	+5.87	The market was in a mild uptrend with low volatility and slightly negative funding, indicating a neutral-to-bearish bias for shorts. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected move materialized, as the sideways price actio…
05-08 09:45	BTC	Sell	+5.87	The market was in a mild uptrend with BTC up 1.70% over 24 hours and neutral funding. The short thesis failed because the trade expired via timeout without reaching a target, as the bullish momentum persisted and prevented a meaningful pullback.
05-08 09:45	BTC	Sell	+5.87	The market was in a low-volatility, sideways grind with BTC up 0.11% on the hour and neutral funding. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, not by price reaching a target or stop, indicating the expected directional move never materiali…
05-08 09:45	BTC	Sell	+5.87	The market was in a mild uptrend with low volatility, as BTC posted small gains across timeframes and funding remained slightly negative. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the anticipated move materialized, indicating the setu…
05-08 09:45	BTC	Sell	+5.87	BTC traded in a narrow, low-volatility range with minimal directional bias across timeframes. The short thesis failed to trigger an entry before the timeout, as the market lacked the momentum needed to reach the intended price level.
05-08 09:45	BTC	Sell	+5.87	BTC traded in a narrow range with low volatility, showing minimal directional movement across timeframes. The short thesis failed as the market did not decline within the timeout window, resulting in a small profit from funding rather than price action.
05-08 09:45	BTC	Sell	+5.87	The market was in a low-volatility, sideways grind with neutral funding and moderate open interest. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the allotted time.
05-08 09:45	BTC	Sell	+5.87	The market was in a low-funding, sideways consolidation with declining open interest, offering no clear directional edge. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout without reaching a target or stop, as the lack of volatility prevented any me…
05-08 09:45	BTC	Sell	+5.87	The market was in a mild uptrend with BTC gaining 1.36% over 24 hours and low funding. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected reversal materialized.
05-08 09:45	BTC	Sell	+5.87	The market was in a mild uptrend with BTC gaining 1.36% over 24 hours and low funding. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected pullback materialized.

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