151
closed trades
45%
win rate
-22.26
total pnl ($)
1.251
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-20 00:09:49 (39.2d ago) · src: canon
verdict: PASS
· strict: STRICT-PASS
· batch:
acc__restored_1dbcf0d3
n: 591
· wr: 54.0%
· total_bps: +5475.3
· mean_bps: +9.26
· sharpe: +0.15
· max_dd_bps: -1384.7
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-01 05:18 | BTC | Sell | 73868.3→73450.7 | +2.38 | timeout |
| 06-01 02:19 | BTC | Sell | 73701.3→73442.7 | +1.31 | timeout |
| 05-31 23:21 | BTC | Sell | 73656.3→73866.7 | -1.88 | timeout |
| 05-31 19:45 | BTC | Sell | 73705.3→73504.7 | +0.91 | timeout |
| 05-31 17:49 | BTC | Sell | 73624.3→73678.7 | -0.81 | timeout |
| 05-31 15:33 | BTC | Sell | 73933.3→73701.7 | +1.12 | timeout |
| 05-31 14:17 | BTC | Sell | 73935.3→73662.7 | +1.40 | timeout |
| 05-31 10:13 | BTC | Sell | 73844.3→73836.7 | -0.39 | timeout |
| 05-31 08:49 | BTC | Sell | 74041.3→73836.7 | +0.94 | timeout |
| 05-31 07:33 | BTC | Sell | 74116.3→73821.7 | +1.55 | timeout |
| 05-31 06:48 | BTC | Sell | 74129.3→74041.7 | +0.14 | timeout |
| 05-31 04:17 | BTC | Sell | 74134.3→74076.7 | -0.06 | timeout |
| 05-31 01:45 | BTC | Sell | 73774.3→74050.7 | -2.32 | timeout |
| 05-30 21:37 | BTC | Sell | 73992.3→73941.7 | -0.10 | timeout |
| 05-30 19:47 | BTC | Sell | 73946.3→74040.7 | -1.08 | timeout |
| 05-30 17:20 | BTC | Sell | 73901.3→73927.7 | -0.62 | timeout |
| 05-30 15:21 | BTC | Sell | 73792.3→73814.7 | -0.59 | timeout |
| 05-30 13:17 | BTC | Sell | 73572.3→73731.7 | -1.53 | timeout |
| 05-30 09:20 | BTC | Sell | 73497.3→73506.7 | -0.51 | timeout |
| 05-30 07:21 | BTC | Sell | 73501.3→73498.7 | -0.43 | timeout |
| 05-30 05:21 | BTC | Sell | 73723.3→73503.7 | +1.04 | timeout |
| 05-30 02:19 | BTC | Sell | 73509.3→73651.7 | -1.41 | timeout |
| 05-29 23:51 | BTC | Sell | 73416.3→73418.7 | -0.46 | timeout |
| 05-29 20:52 | BTC | Sell | 73404.3→73655.7 | -2.16 | timeout |
| 05-29 18:15 | BTC | Sell | 73912.3→73972.7 | -0.85 | timeout |
| 05-29 15:10 | BTC | Sell | 73030.3→73735.5 | -5.28 | stop_loss |
| 05-29 14:18 | BTC | Sell | 73361.3→72863.6 | +2.95 | timeout |
| 05-29 12:04 | BTC | Sell | 73660.3→73399.7 | +1.32 | timeout |
| 05-29 10:46 | BTC | Sell | 73741.3→73574.7 | +0.68 | timeout |
| 05-29 04:25 | BTC | Sell | 73432.3→73290.7 | +0.52 | timeout |
| 05-29 04:25 | BTC | Sell | 73432.3→73225.7 | +0.97 | timeout |
| 05-29 02:40 | BTC | Sell | 73811.3→73437.7 | +2.09 | timeout |
| 05-29 01:22 | BTC | Sell | 73543.3→73604.7 | -0.85 | timeout |
| 05-28 20:34 | BTC | Sell | 73655.3→73608.7 | -0.12 | timeout |
| 05-28 19:22 | BTC | Sell | 73414.3→73483.7 | -0.91 | timeout |
| 05-28 16:21 | BTC | Sell | 73265.3→73212.7 | -0.08 | timeout |
| 05-28 13:21 | BTC | Sell | 73376.3→73214.7 | +0.66 | timeout |
| 05-28 11:22 | BTC | Sell | 73351.3→73384.7 | -0.67 | timeout |
| 05-28 10:01 | BTC | Sell | 73361.3→73518.7 | -1.52 | timeout |
| 05-28 08:53 | BTC | Sell | 73106.3→73313.7 | -1.87 | timeout |
| 05-28 07:51 | BTC | Sell | 72981.4→73364.7 | -3.07 | timeout |
| 05-28 06:51 | BTC | Sell | 73069.3→73063.7 | -0.41 | timeout |
| 05-28 05:51 | BTC | Sell | 73381.3→72978.6 | +2.30 | timeout |
| 05-28 02:51 | BTC | Sell | 74413.3→74306.7 | +0.27 | timeout |
| 05-28 00:20 | BTC | Sell | 74467.3→74496.7 | -0.65 | timeout |
| 05-27 22:51 | BTC | Sell | 75239.2→74526.7 | +4.29 | timeout |
| 05-27 21:50 | BTC | Sell | 74955.3→74425.7 | +3.09 | timeout |
| 05-27 19:19 | BTC | Sell | 74926.3→74969.7 | -0.73 | timeout |
| 05-27 17:51 | BTC | Sell | 75344.2→74910.7 | +2.43 | timeout |
| 05-27 16:51 | BTC | Sell | 75029.2→75218.8 | -1.71 | timeout |
| 05-27 15:20 | BTC | Sell | 75390.2→75261.8 | +0.40 | timeout |
| 05-27 14:20 | BTC | Sell | 75770.2→75036.8 | +4.39 | timeout |
| 05-27 13:21 | BTC | Sell | 75971.2→75321.8 | +3.82 | timeout |
| 05-27 11:20 | BTC | Sell | 75723.2→75969.8 | -2.09 | timeout |
| 05-27 09:20 | BTC | Sell | 75776.2→75730.8 | -0.16 | timeout |
| 05-27 07:20 | BTC | Sell | 75567.2→75777.8 | -1.85 | timeout |
| 05-27 06:20 | BTC | Sell | 75485.2→75686.8 | -1.80 | timeout |
| 05-27 04:50 | BTC | Sell | 75702.2→75453.8 | +1.18 | timeout |
| 05-27 01:50 | BTC | Sell | 75870.2→75919.8 | -0.78 | timeout |
| 05-26 22:50 | BTC | Sell | 76045.2→75652.8 | +2.13 | timeout |
| 05-26 21:20 | BTC | Sell | 75864.2→75936.8 | -0.92 | timeout |
| 05-26 19:20 | BTC | Sell | 76242.2→75863.8 | +2.04 | timeout |
| 05-26 18:20 | BTC | Sell | 76436.2→76112.8 | +1.67 | timeout |
| 05-26 12:50 | BTC | Sell | 77516.1→77069.9 | +2.43 | timeout |
| 05-26 10:36 | BTC | Sell | 76715.2→77449.6 | -5.24 | stop_loss |
| 05-26 09:20 | BTC | Sell | 76622.2→76741.8 | -1.23 | timeout |
| 05-26 08:20 | BTC | Sell | 76809.2→76745.8 | -0.04 | timeout |
| 05-26 07:19 | BTC | Sell | 76807.2→76633.8 | +0.68 | timeout |
| 05-26 05:20 | BTC | Sell | 76499.2→76815.8 | -2.52 | timeout |
| 05-26 04:20 | BTC | Sell | 76694.2→76602.8 | +0.15 | timeout |
| 05-26 02:49 | BTC | Sell | 76826.2→76573.8 | +1.19 | timeout |
| 05-26 01:20 | BTC | Sell | 77242.1→76821.8 | +2.27 | timeout |
| 05-26 00:19 | BTC | Sell | 77303.1→77109.9 | +0.79 | timeout |
| 05-25 21:49 | BTC | Sell | 77387.1→77291.9 | +0.17 | timeout |
| 05-25 17:20 | BTC | Sell | 77650.1→77605.9 | -0.15 | timeout |
| 05-25 16:19 | BTC | Sell | 77515.1→77492.9 | -0.29 | timeout |
| 05-25 13:20 | BTC | Sell | 77392.1→77252.9 | +0.46 | timeout |
| 05-25 09:20 | BTC | Sell | 77167.1→77412.9 | -2.03 | timeout |
| 05-25 07:20 | BTC | Sell | 77345.1→77174.9 | +0.66 | timeout |
| 05-25 06:20 | BTC | Sell | 77032.1→77232.9 | -1.74 | timeout |
| 05-25 04:20 | BTC | Sell | 77226.1→77033.9 | +0.80 | timeout |
| 05-25 01:49 | BTC | Sell | 77128.1→77082.9 | -0.15 | timeout |
| 05-25 00:49 | BTC | Sell | 76814.2→77180.9 | -2.83 | timeout |
| 05-24 22:20 | BTC | Sell | 76611.2→76843.8 | -1.97 | timeout |
| 05-24 21:19 | BTC | Sell | 76691.2→76655.8 | -0.22 | timeout |
| 05-24 18:20 | BTC | Sell | 76604.2→76714.8 | -1.17 | timeout |
| 05-24 14:19 | BTC | Sell | 77059.1→76296.8 | +4.50 | timeout |
| 05-24 13:20 | BTC | Sell | 77244.1→77057.9 | +0.76 | timeout |
| 05-24 10:27 | BTC | Sell | 76784.2→77524.6 | -5.26 | stop_loss |
| 05-24 08:19 | BTC | Sell | 76764.2→76731.8 | -0.23 | timeout |
| 05-24 04:18 | BTC | Sell | 76870.2→76783.8 | +0.12 | timeout |
| 05-24 02:18 | BTC | Sell | 76655.2→76877.8 | -1.90 | timeout |
| 05-24 00:49 | BTC | Sell | 76528.2→76864.8 | -2.64 | timeout |
| 05-23 23:49 | BTC | Sell | 76542.2→76701.8 | -1.49 | timeout |
| 05-23 20:37 | BTC | Sell | 75895.2→76622.1 | -5.24 | stop_loss |
| 05-23 18:20 | BTC | Sell | 75477.2→75848.8 | -2.90 | timeout |
| 05-23 17:19 | BTC | Sell | 75613.2→75416.8 | +0.86 | timeout |
| 05-23 14:56 | BTC | Sell | 74906.3→75626.6 | -5.26 | stop_loss |
| 05-23 12:20 | BTC | Sell | 74704.3→74660.7 | -0.16 | timeout |
| 05-23 11:19 | BTC | Sell | 74633.3→74790.7 | -1.51 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
151
closed
45%
win rate
-22.26
total pnl ($)
-3.0 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 151 | 45% | -3.0 | -22.26 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-03 00:04 | BTC | Sell | -0.56 | The market was consolidating tightly around $78.7k with minimal directional momentum (BTC +0.07% on the hour, -0.28% daily), while negative funding rates (-0.0025%) and stable open interest suggested shorts were still crowded and underwater. The stablecoin … |
| 05-02 23:04 | BTC | Sell | -2.11 | # Trade Closure Analysis: BTC Short Position Bitcoin was consolidating sideways around $78,696 with minimal intraday momentum (1h: +0.06%), while funding rates remained positive at 0.002037%, indicating mild long-biased positioning that lacked conviction f… |
| 05-02 16:06 | BTC | Sell | -1.00 | At close, BTC was trading near $78,452 with minimal intraday momentum (1h: +0.02%, 24h: -0.12%) and slightly negative funding rates (-0.0057%), indicating weak bullish conviction despite elevated open interest ($4.07B). The thesis of a stablecoin supply con… |
| 05-02 15:06 | BTC | Sell | -1.32 | # Trade Post-Mortem Bitcoin was trading in a narrow consolidation band with minimal directional momentum ($78,422, +0.09% 1h, -0.0035% funding rate indicating slight bearish sentiment), providing no catalytic pressure to breach the short's 150 bps take-pro… |
| 05-02 14:06 | BTC | Sell | -2.05 | # Trade Analysis: BTC Short via Stablecoin Supply Contraction Risk Cascade Bitcoin was consolidating near $78,350 with minimal directional momentum (0.08% 1h, -0.41% 24h), while funding rates remained slightly negative at -0.0035%, indicating weak short co… |
| 05-02 13:06 | BTC | Sell | -1.33 | # Trade Analysis: Stablecoin Supply Contraction Risk Cascade Short BTC was consolidating in a tight range at $78,288 with minimal intraday momentum (1h: +0.19%, 24h: +0.15%) and slightly negative funding (-0.29 bps), showing weak conviction for a short-dur… |
| 05-02 12:04 | BTC | Sell | +0.52 | # Trade Analysis **Market Context at Close:** Bitcoin was trading sideways at $78,137 with minimal 1-hour momentum (-0.05%), while funding rates had turned slightly negative (-0.215%), indicating modest deleveraging pressure in the perpetual futures market… |
| 05-02 11:04 | BTC | Sell | +0.25 | # Trade Analysis: BTC Stablecoin Supply Contraction Short The Bitcoin market was consolidating with minimal directional movement at the close ($78,182), posting modest 24-hour gains (+1.22%) amid elevated open interest ($4.08B) and positive funding rates (… |
| 05-01 10:06 | BTC | Sell | -1.28 | At close, Bitcoin was trading sideways near $77,204 with minimal hourly momentum (-0.12%) and modest 24h gains (1.44%), while funding rates remained modest at 0.0055%, indicating no extreme leverage positioning to collapse the anticipated cascade. The short… |
| 05-01 09:05 | BTC | Sell | -2.63 | # Trade Analysis: tick-1777619116 Market was consolidating in a tight range near $77,300 with modest positive momentum (0.26% hourly, 1.69% daily) and benign funding rates (0.003%), exhibiting no directional conviction that would validate the short thesis.… |