stablecoin_outflow_reversal_short_v4

41

closed trades

54%

win rate

+148.36

total pnl ($)

1.577

weight

7d window — n=6 wr=83% pnl=+62.02 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-27 18:38:34 (30.2d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: x3485394_80309

n: 5 · wr: 60.0% · total_bps: -81.8 · mean_bps: -16.35 · sharpe: -0.17 · max_dd_bps: -224.6

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-26 14:28	BTC	Sell	59309→60108	-7.14	timeout
06-26 02:28	BTC	Sell	60873→58717.9	+17.22	timeout
06-25 14:31	BTC	Sell	61274.9→59258	+15.91	timeout
06-25 02:27	BTC	Sell	62686.9→60852	+14.18	timeout
06-24 14:22	BTC	Sell	62557.9→61139.1	+10.87	timeout
06-24 02:26	BTC	Sell	64157.8→62698.1	+10.98	timeout
06-19 17:23	BTC	Sell	62434.9→63017.2	-5.11	timeout
06-17 21:13	BTC	Sell	65896.7→64288.2	+11.74	timeout
06-17 08:58	BTC	Sell	66908.7→64928.2	+14.38	timeout
06-16 21:07	BTC	Sell	66403.7→65877.3	+3.60	timeout
06-16 08:54	BTC	Sell	65630.7→66835.3	-9.66	timeout
06-15 12:55	BTC	Sell	64015.8→66616.6	-20.78	stop_loss
06-15 08:41	BTC	Sell	64447.8→65709.3	-10.24	timeout
06-14 20:39	BTC	Sell	64214.8→64007.2	+1.20	timeout
06-14 08:35	BTC	Sell	63801.8→64452.2	-5.52	timeout
06-13 20:38	BTC	Sell	63512.8→64240.2	-6.16	timeout
06-13 08:29	BTC	Sell	63488.8→63793.2	-2.75	timeout
06-12 20:45	BTC	Sell	63258.8→63479.2	-2.17	timeout
06-12 08:40	BTC	Sell	62922.9→63408.2	-4.23	timeout
06-11 20:28	BTC	Sell	61873.9→63307.2	-11.89	timeout
06-11 08:20	BTC	Sell	61593.9→62801.1	-10.11	timeout
06-10 09:24	BTC	Sell	62827.9→60931	+14.54	timeout
06-09 21:24	BTC	Sell	63672.8→62023.1	+12.41	timeout
06-09 09:18	BTC	Sell	63430.8→62875.1	+3.92	timeout
06-08 09:24	BTC	Sell	62625.9→63469.2	-7.16	timeout
06-07 22:15	BTC	Sell	61768.9→64278.3	-20.76	stop_loss
06-07 21:13	BTC	Sell	60841→61971.1	-9.76	timeout
06-07 09:10	BTC	Sell	61153.9→62806.1	-14.00	timeout
06-06 21:08	BTC	Sell	61834.9→60712	+8.56	timeout
06-06 09:12	BTC	Sell	62634.9→61172.1	+11.28	timeout
06-05 18:51	BTC	Sell	63661.8→59529	+32.06	take_profit
06-05 09:46	BTC	Sell	63135.8→62873.1	+1.61	timeout
06-04 21:04	BTC	Sell	65260.7→63742.2	+11.18	timeout
06-04 01:22	BTC	Sell	67006.6→62657.1	+32.01	take_profit
06-03 23:28	BTC	Sell	66349.7→64431.2	+14.02	timeout
06-03 03:49	BTC	Sell	70211.5→65654.3	+32.01	take_profit
06-02 23:00	BTC	Sell	70879.5→66260.3	+32.14	take_profit
05-31 23:54	BTC	Sell	73805.3→73683.7	+0.35	timeout
05-31 09:53	BTC	Sell	73571.3→73869.7	-2.33	timeout
05-30 14:54	BTC	Sell	72948.4→73896.7	-6.80	timeout
05-30 02:26	BTC	Sell	73458.3→73580.7	-1.25	timeout

Paper (trades.jsonl)

41

closed

54%

win rate

+148.36

total pnl ($)

+72.0 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

0

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
BTC	41	54%	+72.0	+148.36

time	sym	side	reason
06-26 02:54	BTC	Sell	stale_intent
06-26 02:52	BTC	Sell	trigger_already_opened
06-25 14:41	BTC	Sell	trigger_already_opened
06-24 14:46	BTC	Sell	trigger_already_opened

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
no postmortems

More…

Cumulative P&L (last 41 closed)

Last 100 trades

Paper vs Live

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

Recent bounces (last 20 of 4)

Postmortem feed (last 10)