4
closed trades
25%
win rate
-12.75
total pnl ($)
1.259
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-20 06:16:56 (39.8d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
kb__restored_fe458787
n: 16
· wr: 37.5%
· total_bps: -78.5
· mean_bps: -4.91
· sharpe: -0.04
· max_dd_bps: -424.6
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 4 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-26 21:55 | BTC | Sell | 78183→78809 | -4.45 | stop_loss |
| 04-26 21:55 | BTC | Sell | 78059→78684 | -4.45 | stop_loss |
| 04-26 17:03 | BTC | Sell | 77975→77810 | +0.61 | timeout |
| 04-26 05:13 | BTC | Sell | 77458→78078 | -4.45 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
4
closed
25%
win rate
-12.75
total pnl ($)
-63.8 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 4 | 25% | -63.8 | -12.75 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-26 21:55 | BTC | Sell | -4.45 | Bitcoin was consolidating with mild upward momentum, posting a 1.24% gain over 24 hours and 5.09% over the week as the market drifted higher. The trade's thesis failed because the 73% deceleration in stablecoin mints ($119M/d vs $447M baseline) didn't trigg… |
| 04-26 21:55 | BTC | Sell | -4.45 | The market was consolidating with modest upside pressure, as BTC moved +1.24% over 24 hours and +5.09% over 7 days while maintaining slightly negative funding rates. The thesis failed because the stablecoin mint deceleration signal (74% slowdown to $116M/d)… |
| 04-26 17:03 | BTC | Sell | +0.61 | The market was consolidating with minimal directional momentum, with BTC down 0.11% over the prior hour despite a 3.27% weekly gain and elevated open interest of $3.8B. The thesis failed to deliver because the 75% deceleration in stablecoin minting and depr… |
| 04-26 05:13 | BTC | Sell | -4.45 | BTC was consolidating with minimal intraday movement, up only 0.76% over the prior hour and 0.70% over 24 hours, as the market moved sideways near $78,081. The trade's thesis failed because the stablecoin mint deceleration signal (73% slowdown from baseline… |