stablecoin_mint_deceleration_short

not live
4
closed trades
25%
win rate
-12.75
total pnl ($)
1.259
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-20 06:16:56 (39.8d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: kb__restored_fe458787
n: 16  ·  wr: 37.5%  ·  total_bps: -78.5  ·  mean_bps: -4.91  ·  sharpe: -0.04  ·  max_dd_bps: -424.6
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 4 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
04-26 21:55BTCSell78183→78809-4.45stop_loss
04-26 21:55BTCSell78059→78684-4.45stop_loss
04-26 17:03BTCSell77975→77810+0.61timeout
04-26 05:13BTCSell77458→78078-4.45stop_loss

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
4
closed
25%
win rate
-12.75
total pnl ($)
-63.8 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC425%-63.8-12.75

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
04-26 21:55BTCSell-4.45Bitcoin was consolidating with mild upward momentum, posting a 1.24% gain over 24 hours and 5.09% over the week as the market drifted higher. The trade's thesis failed because the 73% deceleration in stablecoin mints ($119M/d vs $447M baseline) didn't trigg…
04-26 21:55BTCSell-4.45The market was consolidating with modest upside pressure, as BTC moved +1.24% over 24 hours and +5.09% over 7 days while maintaining slightly negative funding rates. The thesis failed because the stablecoin mint deceleration signal (74% slowdown to $116M/d)…
04-26 17:03BTCSell+0.61The market was consolidating with minimal directional momentum, with BTC down 0.11% over the prior hour despite a 3.27% weekly gain and elevated open interest of $3.8B. The thesis failed to deliver because the 75% deceleration in stablecoin minting and depr…
04-26 05:13BTCSell-4.45BTC was consolidating with minimal intraday movement, up only 0.76% over the prior hour and 0.70% over 24 hours, as the market moved sideways near $78,081. The trade's thesis failed because the stablecoin mint deceleration signal (73% slowdown from baseline…