stablecoin_dev_velocity_short

not live
13
closed trades
23%
win rate
-6.08
total pnl ($)
1.012
weight
7d window — n=2 wr=0% pnl=-10.00  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-06-04 04:34:19 (18.3d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: cz
n: 15  ·  wr: 40.0%  ·  total_bps: -173.7  ·  mean_bps: -11.58  ·  sharpe: -0.17  ·  max_dd_bps: -234.2
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 13 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-19 11:04BTCSell62551.9→62522.1-0.23timeout
06-17 16:27BTCSell65030.7→66242.4-9.77stop_loss
06-15 04:21BTCSell65170.7→65741.3-4.82timeout
06-09 02:24BTCSell63232.8→62658.1+4.09timeout
06-05 06:24BTCSell63184.8→61166.1+15.52take_profit
05-20 18:01BTCSell77371.1→77573.9-1.73timeout
05-15 20:54BTCSell79125→79062-0.07timeout
05-12 04:43BTCSell81715.9→81724.1-0.49timeout
05-07 07:09BTCSell80982→81453.1-3.35timeout
04-28 00:26BTCSell76683→77227-4.00timeout
04-26 16:44BTCSell77974→77983-0.51timeout
04-25 14:10BTCSell77555→77638-0.99timeout
04-25 01:21BTCSell77599→77491+0.25timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
13
closed
23%
win rate
-6.08
total pnl ($)
-9.4 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC1323%-9.4-6.08

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-07 07:09BTCSell-3.35The market was in a mild downtrend with BTC declining 1.52% over 24 hours and negative momentum across the board. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected move materialized, likely due to insufficient volatility or…
04-26 16:44BTCSell-0.51At close, Bitcoin was trading near $77,983 with elevated positive funding at 0.13% and massive open interest of $3.8B, indicating sustained bullish leverage positioning that prevented the expected pullback. The short thesis failed because the stablecoin vel…
04-25 14:10BTCSell-0.99Bitcoin was consolidating near its opening levels with minimal movement across all timeframes, showing a flat 24-hour performance and modest weekly gains of 2.05%. The stablecoin velocity signal's prediction of stress-building conditions from the 13.5 basis…
04-25 01:21BTCSell+0.25Bitcoin was consolidating with minimal volatility, up 0.21% in the past hour while maintaining a flat 24-hour performance at -0.65%, suggesting a lack of directional conviction in the market. The trade's thesis failed because the stablecoin developer veloci…