stable_supply_contraction_short

78

closed trades

46%

win rate

-2.14

total pnl ($)

1.323

weight

7d window — n=12 wr=67% pnl=+13.49 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-23 05:41:11 (30.9d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: avv

n: 12 · wr: 33.3% · total_bps: -13.0 · mean_bps: -1.08 · sharpe: -0.03 · max_dd_bps: -106.1

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-20 04:24	BTC	Sell	63257.8→63488.2	-2.27	timeout
06-19 20:54	BTC	Sell	63224.8→63167.2	+0.02	timeout
06-19 12:29	BTC	Sell	62801.9→62536.1	+1.64	timeout
06-19 06:53	BTC	Sell	62986.9→62826.1	+0.82	timeout
06-18 20:50	BTC	Sell	63883.8→63043.2	+6.10	timeout
06-18 14:37	BTC	Sell	64523.8→63950.2	+3.99	timeout
06-18 08:25	BTC	Sell	64668.8→64543.2	+0.53	timeout
06-17 05:00	BTC	Sell	65755.7→65870.3	-1.31	timeout
06-16 22:53	BTC	Sell	65683.7→65707.3	-0.61	timeout
06-16 16:28	BTC	Sell	66629.7→65738.3	+6.26	timeout
06-16 10:10	BTC	Sell	66148.7→66548.3	-3.46	timeout
06-16 03:55	BTC	Sell	66373.7→66075.3	+1.79	timeout
06-15 19:01	BTC	Sell	66529.7→66746.3	-2.06	timeout
06-15 12:52	BTC	Sell	65838.7→66533.3	-5.73	timeout
06-15 06:20	BTC	Sell	65695.7→65863.3	-1.72	timeout
06-14 21:40	BTC	Sell	63925.8→65116.8	-9.76	stop_loss
06-14 16:50	BTC	Sell	64510.8→63979.2	+3.68	timeout
06-14 10:28	BTC	Sell	64443.8→64577.2	-1.48	timeout
06-14 04:25	BTC	Sell	64434.8→64473.2	-0.76	timeout
06-13 22:21	BTC	Sell	64007.8→64433.2	-3.77	timeout
06-13 15:30	BTC	Sell	63796.8→64290.2	-4.31	timeout
06-13 09:28	BTC	Sell	63463.8→63794.2	-3.03	timeout
06-13 03:22	BTC	Sell	63564.8→63553.2	-0.36	timeout
06-12 21:23	BTC	Sell	64221.8→63556.2	+4.74	timeout
06-12 13:00	BTC	Sell	63023.8→63459.2	-3.89	timeout
06-12 06:52	BTC	Sell	63675.8→62932.1	+5.40	timeout
06-11 19:30	BTC	Sell	62721.9→63890.1	-9.74	stop_loss
06-11 15:14	BTC	Sell	62830.9→62671.1	+0.84	timeout
06-11 09:15	BTC	Sell	62035.9→62805.1	-6.62	timeout
06-11 02:15	BTC	Sell	61814.9→62154.1	-3.18	timeout
06-10 20:14	BTC	Sell	62020.9→61806.1	+1.30	timeout
06-10 13:50	BTC	Sell	61673.9→62365.1	-6.05	timeout
06-09 21:44	BTC	Sell	61281.9→62023.1	-6.51	timeout
06-09 14:44	BTC	Sell	62976.9→61342.1	+12.53	timeout
06-09 01:03	BTC	Sell	63519.8→62653.1	+6.37	timeout
06-08 16:24	BTC	Sell	63214.8→63937.2	-6.14	timeout
06-08 10:20	BTC	Sell	62886.9→63238.2	-3.24	timeout
06-07 22:14	BTC	Sell	61748.9→62898.6	-9.76	stop_loss
06-07 18:53	BTC	Sell	61737.9→62069.1	-3.14	timeout
06-07 12:49	BTC	Sell	62102.9→61809.1	+1.92	timeout
06-07 05:13	BTC	Sell	60815→61948.1	-9.77	stop_loss
06-06 23:59	BTC	Sell	60555→60866	-3.01	timeout
06-06 17:49	BTC	Sell	60855→60581	+1.79	timeout
06-06 05:26	BTC	Sell	59942→61058.6	-9.76	stop_loss
06-05 20:47	BTC	Sell	60260→61381.7	-9.76	stop_loss
06-05 15:39	BTC	Sell	62135.9→60106	+15.88	take_profit
06-05 07:37	BTC	Sell	61664.9→62814.5	-9.77	stop_loss
06-05 06:21	BTC	Sell	63630.8→61599.1	+15.50	take_profit
06-04 22:10	BTC	Sell	63725.8→63260.2	+3.19	timeout
06-04 13:38	BTC	Sell	63009.8→64183.3	-9.77	stop_loss
06-04 11:11	BTC	Sell	63711.8→62216.1	+11.26	timeout
06-04 00:29	BTC	Sell	65525.7→63435.2	+15.50	take_profit
06-03 19:52	BTC	Sell	66892.7→65516.3	+9.86	timeout
06-03 10:31	BTC	Sell	66332.7→67318.4	-7.85	timeout
06-03 08:17	BTC	Sell	66868.7→67025.4	-1.59	timeout
06-02 21:57	BTC	Sell	67304.6→67545.4	-2.23	timeout
06-02 13:09	BTC	Sell	69990.5→68991.4	+6.72	timeout
06-02 12:22	BTC	Sell	70308.5→69322.5	+6.60	timeout
06-02 02:07	BTC	Sell	71455.4→70202.6	+0.00	stop_loss
06-01 04:35	BTC	Sell	73984.3→73417.7	+3.39	timeout
05-31 19:36	BTC	Sell	73931.3→73449.7	+2.82	timeout
05-31 11:44	BTC	Sell	74061.3→73913.7	+0.58	timeout
05-31 05:43	BTC	Sell	73771.3→74070.7	-2.46	timeout
05-30 17:18	BTC	Sell	73575.3→73893.7	-2.59	timeout
05-30 11:43	BTC	Sell	73526.3→73600.7	-0.94	timeout
05-30 00:44	BTC	Sell	73757.3→73485.7	+1.40	timeout
05-29 14:45	BTC	Sell	73768.3→72618.6	+7.38	timeout
05-29 08:24	BTC	Sell	73475.3→73781.7	-2.53	timeout
05-28 03:55	BTC	Sell	74475.3→73178.2	+0.00	stop_loss
05-27 23:51	BTC	Sell	74870.3→74375.7	+2.87	timeout
05-27 17:51	BTC	Sell	75746.2→74876.7	+5.30	timeout
05-27 11:50	BTC	Sell	75622.2→75759.8	-1.39	timeout
05-27 05:50	BTC	Sell	75875.2→75629.8	+1.14	timeout
05-26 22:20	BTC	Sell	76423.2→75740.8	+4.02	timeout
05-26 13:49	BTC	Sell	76624.2→77333.9	-5.07	timeout
05-26 07:49	BTC	Sell	76724.2→76607.8	+0.31	timeout
05-26 01:49	BTC	Sell	77378.1→76731.8	+3.72	timeout
05-25 17:19	BTC	Sell	77371.1→77601.9	-1.90	timeout

Paper (trades.jsonl)

78

closed

46%

win rate

-2.14

total pnl ($)

-0.9 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

0

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
BTC	78	46%	-0.7	-2.14

time	sym	side	reason
no bounces recorded

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
no postmortems

More…

Cumulative P&L (last 78 closed)

Last 100 trades

Paper vs Live

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

Postmortem feed (last 10)