71
closed trades
39%
win rate
-110.23
total pnl ($)
1.318
weight
7d window — n=10 wr=40% pnl=+10.55
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-19 19:05:44 (40.6d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
abt__restored_dad6e432
n: 155
· wr: 39.4%
· total_bps: -3980.7
· mean_bps: -25.68
· sharpe: -0.19
· max_dd_bps: -4963.3
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 71 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 10:13 | BTC | Buy | 60261→60231 | -0.99 | timeout |
| 06-28 02:10 | BTC | Buy | 60540→60239 | -4.12 | timeout |
| 06-27 19:49 | BTC | Buy | 60319→60149 | -2.58 | timeout |
| 06-27 11:20 | BTC | Buy | 60239→60288 | -0.07 | timeout |
| 06-27 03:07 | BTC | Buy | 59798→60164 | +3.66 | timeout |
| 06-26 19:18 | BTC | Buy | 59394→59960 | +5.99 | timeout |
| 06-26 07:15 | BTC | Buy | 58669.9→60542 | +21.72 | take_profit |
| 06-26 02:18 | BTC | Buy | 59469→58753.1 | -9.02 | timeout |
| 06-25 13:42 | BTC | Buy | 61338.1→60193.9 | -13.67 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 10:17 | BTC | Buy | 60783→61675.9 | +9.64 | timeout |
| 06-11 07:52 | BTC | Buy | 61518.1→62657.9 | +12.27 | timeout |
| 06-10 21:50 | BTC | Buy | 62424.1→61261.3 | -13.68 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 15:50 | BTC | Buy | 61680.1→62278.9 | +6.14 | timeout |
| 06-09 22:42 | BTC | Buy | 61412.1→62016.9 | +6.30 | timeout |
| 06-09 13:36 | BTC | Buy | 63314.2→62106.8 | -13.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 06:34 | BTC | Buy | 63269.2→63366.8 | +0.43 | timeout |
| 06-08 22:28 | BTC | Buy | 63836.2→63320.8 | -6.30 | timeout |
| 06-08 14:28 | BTC | Buy | 63018.2→63801.8 | +8.06 | timeout |
| 06-08 06:23 | BTC | Buy | 63016.2→63047.8 | -0.28 | timeout |
| 06-07 22:15 | BTC | Buy | 61834.1→63806.8 | +21.71 | take_profit |
| 06-07 14:04 | BTC | Buy | 61603.1→61749.9 | +1.03 | timeout |
| 06-07 06:04 | BTC | Buy | 60594→61625.9 | +11.31 | timeout |
| 06-06 22:01 | BTC | Buy | 60808→60742 | -1.36 | timeout |
| 06-06 13:59 | BTC | Buy | 60921→60796 | -2.06 | timeout |
| 06-05 23:33 | BTC | Buy | 61660.1→60511.7 | -13.67 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 18:44 | BTC | Buy | 60711→59582.2 | -13.66 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 06:23 | BTC | Buy | 62393.1→61213.3 | -13.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 06:00 | BTC | Buy | 63362.2→62180.8 | -13.65 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 21:53 | BTC | Buy | 63768.2→63337.8 | -5.34 | timeout |
| 06-04 09:30 | BTC | Buy | 63864.2→62676.5 | -13.64 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 23:54 | BTC | Buy | 65311.3→64093.7 | -13.68 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 20:55 | BTC | Buy | 66058.3→64830.3 | -13.66 | stop_loss |
| 06-03 12:31 | BTC | Buy | 66349.3→67063.6 | +6.85 | timeout |
| 06-02 19:33 | BTC | Buy | 67614.4→66357.5 | -13.64 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 14:01 | BTC | Buy | 69914.5→68599.3 | -13.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 09:04 | BTC | Buy | 70880.5→69561.7 | -13.72 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 07:43 | BTC | Buy | 73778.7→73827.3 | -0.24 | timeout |
| 05-30 17:40 | BTC | Buy | 73533.7→73888.3 | +2.69 | timeout |
| 05-30 05:56 | BTC | Buy | 73396.7→73589.3 | +1.19 | timeout |
| 05-29 17:51 | BTC | Buy | 73711.7→74011.3 | +2.16 | timeout |
| 05-29 10:26 | BTC | Buy | 73465.7→73610.3 | +0.71 | timeout |
| 05-29 02:16 | BTC | Buy | 73690.7→73596.3 | -1.60 | timeout |
| 05-28 17:42 | BTC | Buy | 73455.7→73469.3 | -0.57 | timeout |
| 05-28 04:02 | BTC | Buy | 74316.7→72934.9 | -13.65 | stop_loss |
| 05-28 01:36 | BTC | Buy | 74926.7→74301.3 | -6.49 | timeout |
| 05-27 17:36 | BTC | Buy | 75872.8→74908.3 | -9.55 | timeout |
| 05-27 09:35 | BTC | Buy | 75821.8→75808.2 | -0.69 | timeout |
| 05-25 01:37 | BTC | Buy | 76596.8→77088.1 | +3.84 | timeout |
| 05-24 17:37 | BTC | Buy | 76930.8→76588.2 | -3.76 | timeout |
| 05-24 09:36 | BTC | Buy | 76876.8→76908.2 | -0.41 | timeout |
| 05-24 01:36 | BTC | Buy | 75404.8→76862.2 | +12.87 | timeout |
| 05-23 17:35 | BTC | Buy | 74670.7→75424.2 | +6.38 | timeout |
| 05-23 09:35 | BTC | Buy | 75433.8→74680.3 | -7.60 | timeout |
| 05-22 22:44 | BTC | Buy | 76926.8→75484.5 | -13.77 | stop_loss |
| 05-22 17:35 | BTC | Buy | 77179.9→76946.2 | -2.81 | timeout |
| 05-22 09:35 | BTC | Buy | 77336.9→77172.1 | -2.18 | timeout |
| 05-21 07:45 | BTC | Buy | 77460.9→77678.1 | +1.30 | timeout |
| 05-20 23:44 | BTC | Buy | 77413.9→77466.1 | -0.18 | timeout |
| 05-20 15:44 | BTC | Buy | 77353.9→77406.1 | -0.22 | timeout |
| 05-20 07:44 | BTC | Buy | 76871.8→77346.1 | +3.62 | timeout |
| 05-19 23:43 | BTC | Buy | 76464.8→76888.2 | +3.18 | timeout |
| 05-19 15:43 | BTC | Buy | 77263.9→76484.2 | -7.74 | timeout |
| 05-19 07:43 | BTC | Buy | 77072.9→77256.1 | +1.00 | timeout |
| 05-18 23:43 | BTC | Buy | 76314.8→77065.1 | +6.22 | timeout |
| 05-18 15:43 | BTC | Buy | 76914.8→76319.2 | -6.09 | timeout |
| 05-16 13:00 | BTC | Buy | 78992.9→78989 | -0.71 | timeout |
| 05-02 06:19 | BTC | Buy | 78280.9→78174.1 | -1.55 | timeout |
| 05-01 22:18 | BTC | Buy | 78625.9→78273.1 | -3.72 | timeout |
| 05-01 14:17 | BTC | Buy | 77139.9→78618.1 | +12.79 | timeout |
| 05-01 06:17 | BTC | Buy | 76348.8→77132.1 | +6.59 | timeout |
| 04-30 14:17 | BTC | Buy | 75581→76089.8 | +4.11 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
71
closed
39%
win rate
-110.23
total pnl ($)
-22.0 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 71 | 39% | -22.0 | -110.23 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-02 06:19 | BTC | Buy | -1.55 | # Trade Analysis: BTC Long (8-Hour Regime Reversal) BTC was consolidating near $78,186 with modest positive momentum (1.42% over 24h, 0.85% over 7d) and neutral funding (-0.53 bps), showing neither strong bullish conviction nor capitulation that would conf… |
| 05-01 22:18 | BTC | Buy | -3.72 | At close, Bitcoin was trading near $78,357 with modest hourly gains (0.51% 1h, 2.61% 24h) and negative funding rates (-0.68%), signaling mild bearish sentiment despite recent upside. The regime_fear_greed_oscillation_double_bottom_reversal strategy failed b… |
| 05-01 14:17 | BTC | Buy | +12.79 | At close, Bitcoin had rallied 2.99% over 24 hours to $78,502 with positive but modest hourly momentum (0.25%), indicating a sustained but decelerating uptrend in a low-funding environment. The thesis worked because the trade caught the early phase of this r… |
| 05-01 06:17 | BTC | Buy | +6.59 | The market was consolidating near $77,100 with minimal hourly momentum (0.05%) but modest 24-hour gains (1.98%), while funding rates turned slightly negative at -0.006%, signaling mild bearish sentiment despite the overnight rally. The regime_fear_greed_osc… |
| 04-30 14:17 | BTC | BUY | +4.11 | Bitcoin consolidated near $76,200 with subdued intraday momentum (−0.06% 1h, −0.51% 24h) and slightly negative weekly pressure (−1.70% 7d), while funding rates remained slightly negative at −0.42 bps, signaling cautious positioning. The trade's double-botto… |