174
closed trades
38%
win rate
-16.90
total pnl ($)
0.837
weight
7d window — n=37 wr=35% pnl=-68.83
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-22 15:22:46 (31.8d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
aup
n: 65
· wr: 30.8%
· total_bps: -2170.8
· mean_bps: -33.40
· sharpe: -0.17
· max_dd_bps: -3582.8
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 06:21 | ETC | Buy | 7.15819→6.97297 | -13.39 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | ADA | Buy | 0.15849→0.154444 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.85996→7.66325 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | OP | Buy | 0.100415→0.0978965 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | FIL | Sell | 0.80053→0.762851 | +23.08 | take_profit |
| 06-23 00:51 | XMR | Sell | 319.36→327.435 | -13.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 20:06 | UNI | Buy | 3.00775→3.02804 | +2.92 | timeout |
| 06-22 04:06 | BTC | Buy | 63992.2→63917.8 | -1.11 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:26 | SOL | Buy | 71.7148→74.8508 | +21.35 | take_profit |
| 06-22 01:26 | ETH | Sell | 1711.13→1753.55 | -12.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 20:48 | NEAR | Sell | 2.23504→2.13753 | +21.34 | take_profit |
| 06-21 20:04 | ADA | Sell | 0.162699→0.16181 | +2.33 | timeout |
| 06-21 10:17 | LTC | Sell | 44.113→45.2409 | -13.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 08:05 | HBAR | Sell | 0.080146→0.0803391 | -1.65 | timeout |
| 06-20 14:05 | ARB | Buy | 0.0842611→0.0820784 | -13.40 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 12:32 | ACE | Buy | 0.0847212→0.0819385 | -16.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 04:07 | SOL | Sell | 68.6927→70.0165 | -9.96 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:06 | XRP | Sell | 1.14421→1.13968 | +1.44 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:06 | ETH | Sell | 1687.53→1708.37 | -6.57 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:06 | BTC | Sell | 62626.9→63421.2 | -6.82 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:04 | LTC | Sell | 44.4449→44.02 | +4.25 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:51 | LINK | Buy | 8.0069→7.80654 | -12.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:51 | SOL | Sell | 71.9372→68.7623 | +21.60 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:37 | ADA | Buy | 0.165741→0.161529 | -13.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:18 | AVAX | Sell | 6.73931→6.43531 | +22.05 | take_profit |
| 06-18 05:03 | SUI | Sell | 0.774796→0.740795 | +21.51 | take_profit |
| 06-18 04:11 | BNB | Buy | 605.451→590.327 | -12.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 03:57 | DOT | Sell | 1.02624→0.981545 | +21.33 | take_profit |
| 06-17 20:02 | LINK | Sell | 8.29033→8.04051 | +14.78 | timeout |
| 06-17 19:38 | SUI | Buy | 0.794659→0.774419 | -13.33 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:28 | BTC | Sell | 64841.8→66438.5 | -12.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 09:57 | XMR | Buy | 352.568→343.762 | -12.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 01:46 | DOT | Sell | 1.00115→1.02637 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 21:16 | BCH | Sell | 217.786→223.417 | -13.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 17:49 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0129932→0.0135666 | +21.61 | take_profit |
| 06-16 14:31 | OP | Buy | 0.108247→0.105511 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 12:09 | LTC | Sell | 45.3607→45.5454 | -2.58 | timeout |
| 06-16 08:45 | AVAX | Sell | 6.82509→6.99684 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:24 | XLM | Sell | 0.214046→0.219465 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:18 | SOL | Buy | 75.1263→73.2644 | -12.83 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:55 | XRP | Buy | 1.25961→1.22808 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:24 | ETH | Buy | 1840.98→1795.12 | -12.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 18:00 | ETC | Buy | 7.28822→7.6084 | +21.52 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:18 | UNI | Buy | 2.59825→2.71242 | +21.52 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:16 | ETH | Buy | 1727.37→1803.22 | +21.47 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.1849→1.23659 | +21.34 | take_profit |
| 06-15 03:44 | DOT | Sell | 0.978425→1.00305 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 00:06 | AAVE | Sell | 66.7793→68.3131 | -11.93 | timeout |
| 06-14 23:52 | SOL | Buy | 68.2222→71.2053 | +21.52 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:36 | ONDO | Buy | 0.345826→0.36098 | +21.46 | take_profit |
| 06-14 16:08 | LTC | Buy | 43.2788→44.073 | +8.89 | timeout |
| 06-14 12:28 | ADA | Buy | 0.173443→0.169103 | -12.73 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 18:12 | XLM | Buy | 0.190468→0.185631 | -13.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 12:57 | XRP | Sell | 1.12692→1.15517 | -12.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 09:34 | FIL | Buy | 0.749817→0.782804 | +21.55 | take_profit |
| 06-13 07:19 | RENDER | Sell | 1.66218→1.70488 | -13.29 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 06:08 | OP | Sell | 0.100185→0.102707 | -13.17 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 16:05 | BTC | Buy | 62613.1→63652.8 | +7.71 | timeout |
| 06-12 16:04 | LTC | Sell | 42.7513→42.8557 | -1.62 | timeout |
| 06-12 14:20 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0850012→0.0887228 | +21.27 | take_profit |
| 06-12 14:20 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0864774→0.0886725 | -13.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 09:21 | OP | Buy | 0.0943936→0.0987353 | +22.52 | take_profit |
| 06-12 01:31 | XMR | Sell | 388.273→398.048 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 00:04 | LTC | Buy | 42.0455→42.4074 | +3.99 | timeout |
| 06-11 11:30 | ETH | Sell | 1625.34→1665.6 | -12.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 03:55 | SUI | Sell | 0.731197→0.750242 | -13.42 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 03:55 | LINK | Sell | 7.57271→7.78984 | -14.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:41 | SOL | Sell | 63.2425→64.8131 | -12.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 21:50 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0790248→0.0770192 | -13.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:47 | ADA | Buy | 0.164731→0.160609 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0809202→0.0788109 | -13.48 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:06 | ETC | Sell | 6.95906→7.02916 | -5.49 | timeout |
| 06-10 13:49 | BTC | Sell | 60966→62470.3 | -12.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 13:30 | APT | Sell | 0.636641→0.65319 | -13.46 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 11:54 | KAS | Buy | 0.031838→0.0309718 | -14.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 18:18 | DOT | Sell | 0.937975→0.961591 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 16:38 | XRP | Sell | 1.17181→1.12078 | +21.30 | take_profit |
| 06-09 14:04 | KAS | Sell | 0.0326348→0.0310888 | +23.24 | take_profit |
| 06-09 13:19 | BTC | Buy | 63849.2→62276.7 | -12.74 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 12:10 | FIL | Buy | 0.768192→0.773237 | +2.83 | timeout |
| 06-09 04:35 | APT | Sell | 0.644239→0.660495 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 00:36 | ARB | Buy | 0.0826407→0.0805595 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 00:31 | ONDO | Sell | 0.373367→0.356899 | +21.60 | take_profit |
| 06-08 15:19 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0852527→0.0874095 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 14:55 | XRP | Sell | 1.14441→1.17318 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 12:43 | LINK | Sell | 7.81385→8.01 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 00:36 | KAS | Sell | 0.0305514→0.0313215 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 22:15 | LTC | Buy | 41.5164→43.3462 | +21.60 | take_profit |
| 06-07 22:14 | SUI | Sell | 0.749693→0.768696 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 22:14 | AAVE | Buy | 61.6694→64.3999 | +21.69 | take_profit |
| 06-07 22:14 | UNI | Sell | 2.51187→2.57513 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 20:02 | DOT | Buy | 0.942316→0.942004 | -0.62 | timeout |
| 06-07 12:10 | HYPE | Sell | 58.8793→56.3101 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-07 08:57 | ETH | Buy | 1570.76→1639.64 | +21.46 | take_profit |
| 06-07 08:46 | SOL | Buy | 62.6484→65.3902 | +21.81 | take_profit |
| 06-07 08:38 | BNB | Buy | 568.852→593.652 | +21.17 | take_profit |
| 06-07 08:27 | XRP | Buy | 1.09077→1.13842 | +21.79 | take_profit |
| 06-06 07:29 | XLM | Sell | 0.193002→0.198149 | -13.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 04:38 | LINK | Buy | 7.1818→7.00195 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 04:06 | TRX | Sell | 0.330167→0.31999 | +14.96 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
174
closed
38%
win rate
-16.90
total pnl ($)
-2.1 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL | 12 | 50% | +43.4 | +26.88 |
| XRP | 10 | 40% | -24.4 | -11.80 |
| LINK | 10 | 20% | -127.0 | -63.09 |
| ETH | 9 | 56% | +103.4 | +46.52 |
| LTC | 9 | 44% | -11.5 | -5.08 |
| ADA | 9 | 33% | -56.7 | -25.66 |
| BTC | 8 | 25% | -73.9 | -29.55 |
| SUI | 7 | 43% | +32.9 | +11.42 |
| DOT | 7 | 14% | -127.0 | -44.46 |
| OP | 6 | 17% | -142.8 | -43.11 |
| UNI | 5 | 60% | +113.1 | +28.28 |
| ARB | 5 | 20% | -126.8 | -31.41 |
| NEAR | 4 | 75% | +257.4 | +51.50 |
| ONDO | 4 | 75% | +262.0 | +52.40 |
| APT | 4 | 50% | -1.6 | -0.38 |
| BNB | 4 | 25% | -43.1 | -8.55 |
| FIL | 4 | 75% | +172.3 | +34.46 |
| XMR | 4 | 25% | -88.2 | -17.64 |
| DOGE | 4 | 25% | -89.0 | -17.61 |
| KAS | 4 | 50% | +90.1 | +18.03 |
| INJ | 3 | 33% | -29.8 | -4.81 |
| RENDER | 3 | 33% | -31.6 | -4.74 |
| BCH | 3 | 33% | -33.4 | -5.01 |
| HYPE | 3 | 67% | +199.6 | +29.94 |
| ACE | 3 | 67% | +175.1 | +26.26 |
| AAVE | 3 | 33% | -21.4 | -3.21 |
| AVAX | 3 | 33% | -28.8 | -4.38 |
| XLM | 3 | 0% | -266.9 | -40.04 |
| ETC | 3 | 33% | +17.6 | +2.64 |
| GOAT | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| CHILLGUY | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| TRX | 2 | 50% | +20.1 | +2.01 |
| BLUR | 2 | 50% | +86.9 | +8.69 |
| ATOM | 2 | 50% | +71.2 | +7.17 |
| ICP | 2 | 50% | +81.9 | +8.19 |
| SAGA | 2 | 50% | +82.4 | +8.24 |
| ZEREBRO | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| HBAR | 2 | 0% | -147.9 | -14.79 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 15)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 08:20 | HYPE | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 08:20 | SUI | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 08:20 | LINK | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 08:20 | DOGE | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 08:20 | BTC | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 04:17 | ETC | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-23 00:26 | XMR | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-22 04:23 | ADA | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 04:23 | ADA | Buy | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-22 04:18 | OP | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 04:18 | LINK | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 04:17 | OP | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 04:17 | LINK | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 00:30 | ETH | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-22 00:30 | ETH | Sell | stale_intent |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||