281
closed trades
42%
win rate
-153.49
total pnl ($)
1.256
weight
7d window — n=46 wr=48% pnl=+5.75
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 18:18:18 (23.5d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
perp_spot_basis_regime_gated_siblings
n: 294
· wr: 42.5%
· total_bps: -3380.0
· mean_bps: -11.50
· sharpe: -0.16
· max_dd_bps: -3831.2
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 00:35 | ADA | Buy | 0.147507→0.147293 | -0.60 | timeout |
| 06-26 18:45 | AVAX | Buy | 6.49232→6.3989 | -3.83 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 14:00 | LTC | Buy | 40.4451→41.3347 | +5.27 | take_profit |
| 06-26 12:40 | AVAX | Buy | 6.16144→6.07424 | -3.76 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 09:43 | AVAX | Buy | 6.22156→6.22174 | -0.22 | timeout |
| 06-26 03:02 | ADA | Buy | 0.140395→0.138406 | -3.76 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 22:34 | ADA | Buy | 0.141275→0.143334 | +3.41 | timeout |
| 06-25 19:19 | AVAX | Buy | 6.16014→6.07144 | -3.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 14:33 | ADA | Buy | 0.141895→0.145004 | +5.25 | take_profit |
| 06-25 10:15 | ADA | Buy | 0.149297→0.148763 | -1.12 | timeout |
| 06-25 08:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.149307→0.149813 | +0.63 | timeout |
| 06-25 02:03 | AVAX | Buy | 6.4204→6.43479 | +0.34 | timeout |
| 06-24 20:01 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0731023→0.0746743 | +5.16 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0747617→0.0736847 | -3.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:41 | SOL | Buy | 68.7903→67.8349 | -3.70 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 12:17 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0789317→0.0789023 | -0.32 | timeout |
| 06-24 06:12 | LINK | Buy | 7.58159→7.64719 | +1.94 | timeout |
| 06-24 02:45 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0788577→0.0792762 | +1.11 | timeout |
| 06-23 23:51 | ADA | Buy | 0.150118→0.151362 | +1.85 | timeout |
| 06-23 21:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.150108→0.149833 | -0.68 | timeout |
| 06-23 18:19 | LTC | Buy | 42.1845→42.0575 | -0.97 | timeout |
| 06-23 14:13 | AVAX | Buy | 6.22065→6.35441 | +5.15 | take_profit |
| 06-23 14:06 | LTC | Buy | 43.4619→43.2502 | -1.44 | timeout |
| 06-23 11:32 | LTC | Buy | 43.2818→43.6201 | +1.73 | timeout |
| 06-23 08:13 | SOL | Buy | 70.0005→69.0161 | -3.72 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 04:24 | ADA | Buy | 0.15938→0.15935 | -0.26 | timeout |
| 06-22 22:55 | ADA | Buy | 0.15861→0.157851 | -1.40 | timeout |
| 06-22 19:52 | LINK | Buy | 7.96719→7.90072 | -2.32 | timeout |
| 06-22 16:40 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0842721→0.0830906 | -3.73 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 11:40 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0834839→0.0842219 | +1.98 | timeout |
| 06-22 08:39 | ADA | Buy | 0.16002→0.16073 | +0.88 | timeout |
| 06-22 06:19 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0832928→0.0832792 | -0.27 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:26 | LINK | Buy | 7.83716→8.007 | +5.19 | take_profit |
| 06-22 00:15 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0825956→0.0824484 | -0.66 | timeout |
| 06-21 19:51 | SOL | Buy | 74.3371→74.3998 | -0.02 | timeout |
| 06-21 17:25 | LTC | Buy | 45.2123→45.3257 | +0.40 | timeout |
| 06-21 14:26 | ADA | Buy | 0.16128→0.1618 | +0.58 | timeout |
| 06-21 11:45 | AVAX | Buy | 6.26787→6.27583 | +0.10 | timeout |
| 06-21 09:33 | LTC | Buy | 44.6432→44.8278 | +0.82 | timeout |
| 06-21 05:15 | ADA | Buy | 0.162411→0.1601 | -3.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 03:49 | ADA | Buy | 0.162981→0.162449 | -1.04 | timeout |
| 06-21 00:43 | LTC | Buy | 44.3271→44.4839 | +0.66 | timeout |
| 06-20 22:13 | SOL | Buy | 71.7198→73.303 | +5.28 | take_profit |
| 06-20 16:26 | LINK | Buy | 7.87647→7.94161 | +1.84 | timeout |
| 06-20 12:21 | ADA | Buy | 0.163151→0.162759 | -0.82 | timeout |
| 06-20 07:31 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0833408→0.084158 | +2.23 | timeout |
| 06-20 03:58 | AVAX | Buy | 5.90148→5.94231 | +1.52 | timeout |
| 06-20 01:39 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0830748→0.0835261 | +1.14 | timeout |
| 06-19 19:09 | AVAX | Buy | 5.83336→5.75068 | -3.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 18:44 | LTC | Buy | 44.3911→44.038 | -2.21 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:38 | SOL | Buy | 68.2032→69.2356 | +3.56 | timeout |
| 06-19 11:58 | ADA | Buy | 0.16025→0.15968 | -1.09 | timeout |
| 06-19 09:56 | AVAX | Buy | 6.02581→6.06778 | +1.52 | timeout |
| 06-19 06:42 | LTC | Buy | 43.6149→43.4651 | -1.08 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.31638→6.22063 | -4.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:25 | SOL | Buy | 70.8696→69.8865 | -3.69 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:05 | SOL | Buy | 71.5407→70.5541 | -3.67 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 09:04 | LINK | Buy | 7.95619→8.02609 | +1.98 | timeout |
| 06-18 06:32 | LTC | Buy | 44.6452→44.3489 | -1.88 | timeout |
| 06-18 03:28 | ADA | Buy | 0.167212→0.166728 | -0.95 | timeout |
| 06-17 22:03 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0861815→0.0849493 | -3.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:29 | LINK | Buy | 8.18154→8.06295 | -3.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:27 | SOL | Buy | 72.6209→74.2089 | +5.23 | take_profit |
| 06-17 14:07 | AVAX | Buy | 6.8007→6.8177 | +0.40 | timeout |
| 06-17 11:03 | SOL | Buy | 72.9119→71.9032 | -3.68 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 07:38 | LTC | Buy | 45.7854→45.5576 | -1.47 | timeout |
| 06-17 04:22 | ADA | Buy | 0.171193→0.172527 | +1.73 | timeout |
| 06-17 01:36 | LINK | Buy | 8.30418→8.26903 | -1.29 | timeout |
| 06-16 20:10 | SOL | Buy | 73.26→73.8219 | +1.69 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:31 | LTC | Buy | 45.2003→44.5516 | -3.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 11:45 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0883871→0.087966 | -1.41 | timeout |
| 06-16 06:13 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0870097→0.0872912 | +0.59 | timeout |
| 06-16 02:27 | SOL | Buy | 74.1131→73.0835 | -3.70 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:35 | ADA | Buy | 0.178325→0.176976 | -2.11 | timeout |
| 06-15 22:21 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0887092→0.0886408 | -0.41 | timeout |
| 06-15 19:13 | AVAX | Buy | 7.02916→6.99185 | -1.56 | timeout |
| 06-15 16:58 | AVAX | Buy | 6.97134→7.03704 | +2.14 | timeout |
| 06-15 14:51 | AVAX | Buy | 6.90993→6.94666 | +1.10 | timeout |
| 06-15 11:46 | SOL | Buy | 71.4957→72.5971 | +3.63 | timeout |
| 06-15 04:52 | LTC | Buy | 45.2153→45.1407 | -0.63 | timeout |
| 06-15 00:14 | ADA | Buy | 0.182146→0.186083 | +5.18 | take_profit |
| 06-14 23:26 | LINK | Buy | 7.96919→8.14076 | +5.16 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:18 | AVAX | Buy | 6.4027→6.54146 | +5.21 | take_profit |
| 06-14 19:35 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0866096→0.0865224 | -0.47 | timeout |
| 06-14 14:35 | ADA | Buy | 0.167612→0.165216 | -3.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 14:35 | SOL | Buy | 68.0302→67.0864 | -3.69 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 12:42 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0873478→0.0865674 | -2.47 | timeout |
| 06-14 10:11 | AVAX | Buy | 6.64306→6.65893 | +0.38 | timeout |
| 06-14 08:06 | ADA | Buy | 0.172053→0.170817 | -2.00 | timeout |
| 06-14 05:32 | ADA | Buy | 0.172943→0.171267 | -2.65 | timeout |
| 06-14 03:23 | SOL | Buy | 68.7393→68.8607 | +0.23 | timeout |
| 06-13 20:48 | AVAX | Buy | 6.71538→6.70032 | -0.79 | timeout |
| 06-13 18:05 | AVAX | Buy | 6.69837→6.69643 | -0.30 | timeout |
| 06-13 14:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.66727→6.68123 | +0.30 | timeout |
| 06-13 11:35 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0872618→0.087809 | +1.34 | timeout |
| 06-13 03:53 | LTC | Buy | 43.2508→43.3262 | +0.20 | timeout |
| 06-13 01:39 | LTC | Buy | 42.9687→43.3462 | +1.96 | timeout |
| 06-12 20:51 | LINK | Buy | 7.87017→7.83344 | -1.40 | timeout |
| 06-12 15:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.169632→0.173287 | +5.16 | take_profit |
| 06-12 13:42 | AVAX | Buy | 6.62316→6.5298 | -3.75 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
281
closed
42%
win rate
-153.49
total pnl ($)
-21.9 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 58 | 36% | -30.0 | -43.35 |
| LTC | 50 | 44% | -25.5 | -31.77 |
| DOGE | 48 | 46% | -1.7 | -2.09 |
| SOL | 48 | 44% | -20.1 | -23.99 |
| AVAX | 45 | 33% | -41.4 | -46.56 |
| LINK | 32 | 50% | -7.1 | -5.73 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 11)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 21:51 | ADA | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-26 17:40 | AVAX | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-26 12:54 | LTC | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-26 02:25 | ADA | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 19:36 | ADA | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 14:31 | ADA | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 07:17 | ADA | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 23:18 | AVAX | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 16:07 | DOGE | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 14:06 | SOL | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-24 09:27 | DOGE | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||