324
closed trades
39%
win rate
-298.15
total pnl ($)
1.315
weight
7d window — n=57 wr=42% pnl=+9.73
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-04 00:55:13 (24.3d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
perp_spot_basis_regime_gated_siblings
n: 344
· wr: 42.4%
· total_bps: -5200.1
· mean_bps: -15.12
· sharpe: -0.17
· max_dd_bps: -5483.0
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 01:18 | SOL | Buy | 70.4876→70.5874 | +0.21 | timeout |
| 06-27 22:16 | AVAX | Buy | 6.43591→6.34504 | -6.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 19:26 | LTC | Buy | 42.9347→42.3322 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 17:28 | LINK | Buy | 7.41435→7.38625 | -1.88 | timeout |
| 06-27 16:08 | LTC | Buy | 42.7807→43.2362 | +3.89 | timeout |
| 06-27 12:26 | LTC | Buy | 42.7307→42.5344 | -2.19 | timeout |
| 06-27 09:45 | DOGE | Buy | 0.075821→0.0752462 | -3.39 | timeout |
| 06-27 06:35 | LTC | Buy | 42.2966→42.1895 | -1.34 | timeout |
| 06-27 04:38 | AVAX | Buy | 6.53813→6.56216 | +1.09 | timeout |
| 06-26 23:59 | AVAX | Buy | 6.48712→6.62744 | +8.29 | take_profit |
| 06-26 22:10 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0755559→0.0752842 | -1.81 | timeout |
| 06-26 19:55 | ADA | Buy | 0.148067→0.147893 | -0.82 | timeout |
| 06-26 14:29 | AVAX | Buy | 6.14414→6.27943 | +8.45 | take_profit |
| 06-26 13:02 | ADA | Buy | 0.143526→0.142644 | -2.82 | timeout |
| 06-26 08:18 | ADA | Buy | 0.147007→0.144891 | -6.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:56 | LINK | Buy | 7.05436→7.206 | +8.23 | take_profit |
| 06-26 00:33 | ADA | Buy | 0.143516→0.143354 | -0.82 | timeout |
| 06-25 18:34 | AVAX | Buy | 6.23486→6.14549 | -6.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 17:14 | AVAX | Buy | 6.08132→6.21425 | +8.40 | take_profit |
| 06-25 14:10 | DOGE | Buy | 0.072017→0.0735656 | +8.24 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:42 | ADA | Buy | 0.147667→0.145591 | -5.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 11:26 | LTC | Buy | 41.6944→41.3647 | -3.53 | timeout |
| 06-25 07:56 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0765581→0.0771747 | +2.86 | timeout |
| 06-25 03:44 | LTC | Buy | 41.1463→41.1797 | -0.03 | timeout |
| 06-24 22:00 | ADA | Buy | 0.144376→0.147503 | +8.32 | take_profit |
| 06-24 20:01 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0731023→0.0746743 | +8.25 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | LTC | Buy | 40.8702→40.2908 | -6.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:33 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0767512→0.0756682 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:06 | LINK | Buy | 7.64431→7.53634 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 10:10 | ADA | Buy | 0.150578→0.148099 | -6.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 08:15 | LINK | Buy | 7.6169→7.6 | -1.25 | timeout |
| 06-24 04:25 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0796129→0.0784611 | -6.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 01:07 | AVAX | Buy | 6.47932→6.47868 | -0.39 | timeout |
| 06-23 22:16 | AVAX | Buy | 6.36259→6.49947 | +8.23 | take_profit |
| 06-23 20:09 | AVAX | Buy | 6.31998→6.45729 | +8.33 | take_profit |
| 06-23 18:19 | LTC | Buy | 42.2005→42.0575 | -1.70 | timeout |
| 06-23 14:13 | AVAX | Buy | 6.23106→6.36521 | +8.25 | take_profit |
| 06-23 14:02 | SOL | Buy | 68.8933→69.2736 | +1.88 | timeout |
| 06-23 11:18 | SOL | Buy | 68.5723→68.8957 | +1.56 | timeout |
| 06-23 08:14 | SOL | Buy | 69.8055→68.8352 | -5.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:07 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0819545→0.0813816 | -3.15 | timeout |
| 06-23 01:04 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0827277→0.0825184 | -1.37 | timeout |
| 06-22 23:02 | LTC | Buy | 44.6822→44.5079 | -1.91 | timeout |
| 06-22 20:52 | LTC | Buy | 44.9182→44.5369 | -3.74 | timeout |
| 06-22 15:49 | ADA | Buy | 0.16125→0.158951 | -6.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 14:33 | LTC | Buy | 45.1403→45.1827 | +0.01 | timeout |
| 06-22 11:48 | AVAX | Buy | 6.24436→6.35961 | +7.02 | timeout |
| 06-22 08:16 | ADA | Buy | 0.15976→0.16131 | +3.51 | timeout |
| 06-22 05:50 | SOL | Buy | 73.7901→73.8649 | +0.04 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:26 | LINK | Buy | 7.80075→7.96901 | +8.27 | take_profit |
| 06-22 01:04 | LINK | Buy | 7.86887→7.90092 | +1.29 | timeout |
| 06-21 21:10 | LTC | Buy | 45.2473→44.6115 | -5.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 19:16 | SOL | Buy | 73.9241→74.3288 | +1.82 | timeout |
| 06-21 16:13 | AVAX | Buy | 6.29227→6.29173 | -0.38 | timeout |
| 06-21 13:23 | LTC | Buy | 45.2643→45.1327 | -1.53 | timeout |
| 06-21 11:03 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0835379→0.0832502 | -1.75 | timeout |
| 06-21 07:45 | AVAX | Buy | 6.20355→6.33842 | +8.33 | take_profit |
| 06-21 04:53 | ADA | Buy | 0.163101→0.160819 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 04:01 | AVAX | Buy | 6.25266→6.25134 | -0.46 | timeout |
| 06-21 01:51 | AVAX | Buy | 6.23646→6.24904 | +0.43 | timeout |
| 06-20 23:19 | LINK | Buy | 7.90077→7.9992 | +4.62 | timeout |
| 06-20 19:09 | ADA | Buy | 0.162171→0.16081 | -3.73 | timeout |
| 06-20 16:32 | AVAX | Buy | 6.03951→6.09778 | +3.48 | timeout |
| 06-20 12:18 | ADA | Buy | 0.163051→0.162809 | -0.94 | timeout |
| 06-20 10:10 | SOL | Buy | 71.6988→71.5403 | -1.25 | timeout |
| 06-20 07:54 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0834158→0.083961 | +2.27 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:11 | AVAX | Buy | 5.90278→5.93472 | +1.82 | timeout |
| 06-20 01:03 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0828747→0.0833552 | +1.97 | timeout |
| 06-19 19:34 | LINK | Buy | 7.91938→7.85174 | -3.78 | timeout |
| 06-19 18:44 | AVAX | Buy | 5.82606→5.74219 | -6.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 17:01 | SOL | Buy | 69.1874→68.6777 | -3.30 | timeout |
| 06-19 13:02 | LTC | Buy | 43.4119→43.6811 | +2.13 | timeout |
| 06-19 10:41 | LTC | Buy | 43.3418→43.3582 | -0.20 | timeout |
| 06-19 08:51 | LINK | Buy | 7.88657→7.85424 | -2.00 | timeout |
| 06-19 04:30 | AVAX | Buy | 6.16264→6.07544 | -6.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.31358→6.21464 | -6.61 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 01:05 | SOL | Buy | 69.4774→69.9345 | +2.26 | timeout |
| 06-18 20:35 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0824106→0.0834621 | +4.74 | timeout |
| 06-18 19:05 | LTC | Buy | 43.2608→43.2022 | -0.91 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:26 | LINK | Buy | 8.02731→7.91406 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:07 | SOL | Buy | 70.9176→70.7764 | -1.16 | timeout |
| 06-18 11:08 | ADA | Buy | 0.166762→0.166378 | -1.29 | timeout |
| 06-18 05:04 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0853153→0.0841029 | -6.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 01:15 | LTC | Buy | 44.7132→44.9828 | +2.04 | timeout |
| 06-17 22:41 | LINK | Buy | 8.03731→8.04929 | +0.23 | timeout |
| 06-17 18:00 | LINK | Buy | 8.29627→8.17866 | -6.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:05 | SOL | Buy | 72.3308→73.9019 | +8.32 | take_profit |
| 06-17 14:00 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0860125→0.0861814 | +0.43 | timeout |
| 06-17 11:53 | LINK | Buy | 8.16364→8.16096 | -0.50 | timeout |
| 06-17 08:51 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0869417→0.0857257 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 06:27 | ADA | Buy | 0.173163→0.171987 | -3.07 | timeout |
| 06-17 04:24 | SOL | Buy | 73.361→73.7019 | +1.50 | timeout |
| 06-17 00:09 | LINK | Buy | 8.33708→8.28423 | -2.91 | timeout |
| 06-16 18:49 | LTC | Buy | 44.8522→45.7586 | +7.72 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:18 | LINK | Buy | 8.29557→8.17896 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 13:11 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0884161→0.0871686 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 10:40 | AVAX | Buy | 6.92433→6.97756 | +2.73 | timeout |
| 06-16 06:50 | ADA | Buy | 0.177014→0.178035 | +1.95 | timeout |
| 06-16 02:27 | AVAX | Buy | 6.85381→6.75793 | -5.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:49 | DOGE | Buy | 0.087894→0.088002 | +0.13 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
324
closed
39%
win rate
-298.15
total pnl ($)
-23.0 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTC | 63 | 32% | -38.6 | -97.24 |
| ADA | 58 | 24% | -52.9 | -122.57 |
| AVAX | 56 | 43% | -10.8 | -24.11 |
| DOGE | 55 | 42% | -14.0 | -30.91 |
| SOL | 53 | 51% | +5.7 | +12.36 |
| LINK | 39 | 44% | -22.8 | -35.67 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 2)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 06:20 | DOGE | Buy | circuit_breaker |
| 06-27 22:22 | SOL | Buy | circuit_breaker |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||