287
closed trades
42%
win rate
-223.32
total pnl ($)
1.271
weight
7d window — n=48 wr=48% pnl=+8.15
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-04 00:26:04 (23.3d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
perp_spot_basis_regime_gated_siblings
n: 295
· wr: 43.4%
· total_bps: -4601.3
· mean_bps: -15.60
· sharpe: -0.19
· max_dd_bps: -4810.5
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 06:35 | LTC | Buy | 42.2966→42.1895 | -1.34 | timeout |
| 06-27 00:36 | ADA | Buy | 0.147547→0.147373 | -0.85 | timeout |
| 06-26 18:46 | AVAX | Buy | 6.48512→6.3931 | -6.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 17:24 | AVAX | Buy | 6.34299→6.48218 | +8.41 | take_profit |
| 06-26 13:54 | SOL | Buy | 68.8493→70.3534 | +8.38 | take_profit |
| 06-26 11:45 | LTC | Buy | 41.4384→40.8563 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 09:52 | LTC | Buy | 41.8165→41.2281 | -5.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:47 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0727982→0.0743814 | +8.34 | take_profit |
| 06-26 00:34 | ADA | Buy | 0.143466→0.143304 | -0.81 | timeout |
| 06-25 21:28 | LTC | Buy | 40.8012→40.9668 | +1.25 | timeout |
| 06-25 17:16 | AVAX | Buy | 6.09892→6.23334 | +8.47 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:42 | DOGE | Buy | 0.076031→0.0749298 | -6.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 12:26 | ADA | Buy | 0.148407→0.1463 | -6.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 08:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.149047→0.149923 | +2.01 | timeout |
| 06-25 02:03 | AVAX | Buy | 6.4206→6.43479 | +0.53 | timeout |
| 06-24 20:01 | SOL | Buy | 65.2118→66.632 | +8.36 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0753448→0.0742783 | -6.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:48 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0777024→0.0766055 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:12 | AVAX | Buy | 6.4001→6.30966 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 10:00 | LTC | Buy | 42.1495→42.0635 | -1.17 | timeout |
| 06-24 07:00 | LTC | Buy | 41.7254→42.1285 | +3.51 | timeout |
| 06-24 02:45 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0788347→0.0792822 | +1.92 | timeout |
| 06-23 23:51 | ADA | Buy | 0.150027→0.151352 | +3.17 | timeout |
| 06-23 20:33 | AVAX | Buy | 6.32418→6.41919 | +5.64 | timeout |
| 06-23 18:19 | LTC | Buy | 42.1845→42.0575 | -1.55 | timeout |
| 06-23 14:13 | AVAX | Buy | 6.23106→6.36561 | +8.28 | take_profit |
| 06-23 14:06 | LTC | Buy | 43.4619→43.2582 | -2.24 | timeout |
| 06-23 11:28 | LINK | Buy | 7.50288→7.5889 | +4.25 | timeout |
| 06-23 08:15 | LTC | Buy | 44.2381→43.6193 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:07 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0819545→0.0813816 | -3.15 | timeout |
| 06-23 03:31 | LINK | Buy | 7.84676→7.87463 | +1.06 | timeout |
| 06-23 00:49 | LTC | Buy | 44.6242→44.5079 | -1.39 | timeout |
| 06-22 17:57 | LINK | Buy | 8.0095→7.95661 | -3.02 | timeout |
| 06-22 15:46 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0843581→0.083913 | -2.47 | timeout |
| 06-22 11:48 | AVAX | Buy | 6.25326→6.36401 | +6.72 | timeout |
| 06-22 08:16 | ADA | Buy | 0.15977→0.16124 | +3.30 | timeout |
| 06-21 23:55 | ADA | Buy | 0.15857→0.156273 | -6.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 21:09 | LTC | Buy | 45.2833→44.6425 | -6.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 20:57 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0833838→0.0831282 | -1.58 | timeout |
| 06-21 18:46 | LINK | Buy | 7.9882→7.94521 | -2.52 | timeout |
| 06-21 15:01 | LTC | Buy | 45.0333→45.3227 | +2.20 | timeout |
| 06-21 08:35 | AVAX | Buy | 6.31758→6.22823 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 07:54 | ADA | Buy | 0.161→0.16139 | +0.62 | timeout |
| 06-21 05:48 | LTC | Buy | 44.5591→44.4749 | -1.10 | timeout |
| 06-21 00:42 | LTC | Buy | 44.2961→44.4909 | +1.39 | timeout |
| 06-20 22:13 | SOL | Buy | 71.7238→73.294 | +8.38 | take_profit |
| 06-20 16:26 | LINK | Buy | 7.86617→7.94181 | +3.48 | timeout |
| 06-20 10:49 | DOGE | Buy | 0.084056→0.083906 | -1.07 | timeout |
| 06-20 07:31 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0833188→0.084175 | +3.76 | timeout |
| 06-20 02:49 | LTC | Buy | 43.937→43.935 | -0.39 | timeout |
| 06-19 23:41 | LINK | Buy | 7.87467→7.92842 | +2.37 | timeout |
| 06-19 18:44 | LTC | Buy | 44.3911→44.038 | -3.54 | timeout |
| 06-19 18:30 | AVAX | Buy | 6.02961→5.94474 | -5.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 16:34 | SOL | Buy | 68.5303→69.3066 | +4.17 | timeout |
| 06-19 11:58 | ADA | Buy | 0.16032→0.15968 | -1.92 | timeout |
| 06-19 09:57 | AVAX | Buy | 6.03741→6.06538 | +1.50 | timeout |
| 06-19 06:42 | LTC | Buy | 43.6149→43.4651 | -1.73 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.30298→6.21464 | -5.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 01:06 | SOL | Buy | 69.5024→69.9235 | +2.05 | timeout |
| 06-18 19:20 | LTC | Buy | 43.2718→43.2692 | -0.40 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:18 | LINK | Buy | 8.03341→7.91766 | -6.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 06:32 | LTC | Buy | 44.6452→44.3489 | -3.01 | timeout |
| 06-18 01:15 | LTC | Buy | 44.7132→44.9828 | +2.04 | timeout |
| 06-17 19:20 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0870378→0.0858106 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 15:22 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0857844→0.0864994 | +2.97 | timeout |
| 06-17 12:14 | AVAX | Buy | 6.82261→6.81959 | -0.54 | timeout |
| 06-17 07:38 | LTC | Buy | 45.7854→45.5576 | -2.35 | timeout |
| 06-17 02:23 | ADA | Buy | 0.170973→0.174656 | +8.25 | take_profit |
| 06-17 01:36 | LINK | Buy | 8.30848→8.26903 | -2.27 | timeout |
| 06-16 20:34 | LTC | Buy | 45.3103→45.5566 | +1.81 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:18 | AVAX | Buy | 6.87712→6.77861 | -6.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 14:13 | SOL | Buy | 74.7162→73.6821 | -5.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 11:45 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0883341→0.087966 | -2.02 | timeout |
| 06-16 06:13 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0869767→0.0872802 | +1.04 | timeout |
| 06-16 02:27 | SOL | Buy | 74.1181→73.0935 | -5.89 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:35 | ADA | Buy | 0.178325→0.176976 | -3.38 | timeout |
| 06-15 22:21 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0887362→0.0886408 | -0.78 | timeout |
| 06-15 19:13 | AVAX | Buy | 7.03436→6.99085 | -2.85 | timeout |
| 06-15 16:57 | AVAX | Buy | 6.96694→7.04184 | +3.95 | timeout |
| 06-15 14:51 | AVAX | Buy | 6.90593→6.95136 | +2.26 | timeout |
| 06-15 11:46 | SOL | Buy | 71.4757→72.5481 | +5.65 | timeout |
| 06-15 04:53 | LTC | Buy | 45.2023→45.1327 | -0.97 | timeout |
| 06-15 00:09 | ADA | Buy | 0.181565→0.185484 | +8.27 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:18 | SOL | Buy | 67.5271→69.0516 | +8.68 | take_profit |
| 06-14 20:16 | LTC | Buy | 44.169→44.168 | -0.36 | timeout |
| 06-14 14:35 | ADA | Buy | 0.167682→0.165336 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 14:35 | SOL | Buy | 68.0482→67.1044 | -5.89 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 12:41 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0873828→0.0865674 | -4.11 | timeout |
| 06-14 10:09 | AVAX | Buy | 6.64116→6.65404 | +0.43 | timeout |
| 06-14 08:06 | ADA | Buy | 0.172053→0.170817 | -3.21 | timeout |
| 06-14 05:32 | ADA | Buy | 0.172943→0.171267 | -4.24 | timeout |
| 06-14 03:23 | SOL | Buy | 68.7393→68.8607 | +0.37 | timeout |
| 06-14 01:13 | LTC | Buy | 44.205→44.4729 | +2.05 | timeout |
| 06-13 20:47 | AVAX | Buy | 6.71228→6.70132 | -1.01 | timeout |
| 06-13 18:06 | AVAX | Buy | 6.69957→6.69852 | -0.43 | timeout |
| 06-13 14:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.66156→6.68123 | +0.82 | timeout |
| 06-13 11:35 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0872618→0.087831 | +2.24 | timeout |
| 06-13 03:54 | LTC | Buy | 43.2768→43.3332 | +0.15 | timeout |
| 06-12 16:02 | AVAX | Buy | 6.62836→6.5341 | -6.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 15:07 | SOL | Buy | 66.878→68.3317 | +8.32 | take_profit |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
287
closed
42%
win rate
-223.32
total pnl ($)
-19.5 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTC | 55 | 36% | -22.5 | -49.45 |
| DOGE | 54 | 37% | -28.0 | -60.41 |
| ADA | 53 | 42% | -24.1 | -50.87 |
| AVAX | 49 | 39% | -25.7 | -50.41 |
| SOL | 43 | 56% | +17.8 | +30.82 |
| LINK | 33 | 45% | -32.5 | -43.00 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 9)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 21:51 | ADA | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-26 13:48 | SOL | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-26 02:41 | DOGE | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-25 15:16 | AVAX | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 13:08 | DOGE | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 23:18 | AVAX | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 17:54 | SOL | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 15:50 | DOGE | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 13:21 | DOGE | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||