198
closed trades
41%
win rate
-149.31
total pnl ($)
1.024
weight
7d window — n=31 wr=35% pnl=-39.10
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 19:49:36 (25.3d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
perp_spot_basis_regime_gated_siblings
n: 190
· wr: 45.3%
· total_bps: -2747.4
· mean_bps: -14.46
· sharpe: -0.16
· max_dd_bps: -2942.3
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 18:56 | LINK | Buy | 7.29852→7.23239 | -3.98 | timeout |
| 06-28 13:51 | LINK | Buy | 7.24281→7.26408 | +0.81 | timeout |
| 06-28 07:03 | LINK | Buy | 7.29882→7.27198 | -1.83 | timeout |
| 06-27 22:27 | LINK | Buy | 7.33443→7.28338 | -3.15 | timeout |
| 06-27 17:38 | LINK | Buy | 7.40355→7.38875 | -1.17 | timeout |
| 06-27 16:18 | LINK | Buy | 7.37894→7.43394 | +2.64 | timeout |
| 06-26 22:06 | LINK | Buy | 7.29412→7.29598 | -0.27 | timeout |
| 06-26 18:57 | LINK | Buy | 7.39115→7.28353 | -6.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 14:00 | LINK | Buy | 7.12538→7.27948 | +8.29 | take_profit |
| 06-26 09:48 | LINK | Buy | 7.32653→7.22348 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:56 | LINK | Buy | 7.06016→7.2122 | +8.25 | take_profit |
| 06-26 01:50 | LINK | Buy | 7.23551→7.17341 | -3.81 | timeout |
| 06-25 14:37 | LINK | Buy | 7.29562→7.1927 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:42 | LINK | Buy | 7.41785→7.31261 | -6.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 00:37 | LINK | Buy | 7.43206→7.40405 | -1.88 | timeout |
| 06-24 20:01 | LINK | Buy | 7.15299→7.30707 | +8.27 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | LINK | Buy | 7.38205→7.27294 | -6.27 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:42 | LINK | Buy | 7.50428→7.39575 | -6.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 11:54 | LINK | Buy | 7.6173→7.64159 | +0.90 | timeout |
| 06-24 07:11 | LINK | Buy | 7.57619→7.62549 | +2.24 | timeout |
| 06-24 05:05 | LINK | Buy | 7.62191→7.5936 | -1.84 | timeout |
| 06-24 01:06 | LINK | Buy | 7.6162→7.596 | -1.42 | timeout |
| 06-23 18:40 | LINK | Buy | 7.65431→7.54724 | -5.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 16:55 | LINK | Buy | 7.6009→7.6091 | +0.07 | timeout |
| 06-23 14:52 | LINK | Buy | 7.6057→7.63549 | +1.22 | timeout |
| 06-23 11:26 | LINK | Buy | 7.52088→7.5903 | +3.35 | timeout |
| 06-23 06:20 | LINK | Buy | 7.82786→7.71521 | -6.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 04:08 | LINK | Buy | 7.90177→7.89283 | -0.82 | timeout |
| 06-22 19:53 | LINK | Buy | 7.97479→7.90332 | -3.95 | timeout |
| 06-22 17:30 | LINK | Buy | 8.03461→7.92205 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 11:48 | LINK | Buy | 7.9887→8.06898 | +3.66 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:23 | LINK | Buy | 7.77114→7.93911 | +8.29 | take_profit |
| 06-22 00:32 | LINK | Buy | 7.83866→7.84574 | +0.02 | timeout |
| 06-21 20:46 | LINK | Buy | 7.95299→7.91662 | -2.20 | timeout |
| 06-21 15:34 | LINK | Buy | 7.90988→7.96151 | +2.24 | timeout |
| 06-21 11:03 | LINK | Buy | 7.94909→7.97611 | +0.98 | timeout |
| 06-21 08:20 | LINK | Buy | 7.92098→7.92602 | -0.12 | timeout |
| 06-21 06:12 | LINK | Buy | 7.94869→7.92272 | -1.67 | timeout |
| 06-21 01:13 | LINK | Buy | 7.96199→7.95451 | -0.75 | timeout |
| 06-20 22:32 | LINK | Buy | 7.89957→7.9892 | +4.17 | timeout |
| 06-20 16:26 | LINK | Buy | 7.87547→7.94161 | +3.00 | timeout |
| 06-20 03:00 | LINK | Buy | 7.96129→7.87413 | -4.74 | timeout |
| 06-19 19:34 | LINK | Buy | 7.91928→7.84834 | -3.94 | timeout |
| 06-19 17:03 | LINK | Buy | 7.93768→7.86263 | -4.14 | timeout |
| 06-19 11:58 | LINK | Buy | 7.84986→7.80805 | -2.49 | timeout |
| 06-19 08:51 | LINK | Buy | 7.88657→7.85424 | -2.00 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:15 | LINK | Buy | 8.0165→7.89817 | -6.27 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 20:30 | LINK | Buy | 7.83486→7.96131 | +6.09 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:17 | LINK | Buy | 8.04171→7.92675 | -6.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 05:08 | LINK | Buy | 8→7.88708 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:29 | LINK | Buy | 8.19605→8.08094 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 18:05 | LINK | Buy | 8.23496→8.11511 | -6.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 08:44 | LINK | Buy | 8.28207→8.16387 | -6.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 06:25 | LINK | Buy | 8.32118→8.35261 | +1.14 | timeout |
| 06-16 23:30 | LINK | Buy | 8.27597→8.28313 | -0.03 | timeout |
| 06-16 20:34 | LINK | Buy | 8.21505→8.27663 | +2.64 | timeout |
| 06-16 17:19 | LINK | Buy | 8.19235→8.20865 | +0.42 | timeout |
| 06-16 13:11 | LINK | Buy | 8.4068→8.28578 | -6.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:12 | LINK | Buy | 8.21375→8.29822 | +3.74 | timeout |
| 06-16 06:01 | LINK | Buy | 8.17804→8.20485 | +0.95 | timeout |
| 06-16 02:27 | LINK | Buy | 8.29217→8.17487 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:26 | LINK | Buy | 8.396→8.27629 | -6.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 19:19 | LINK | Buy | 8.51573→8.3957 | -6.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 17:07 | LINK | Buy | 8.45711→8.49817 | +1.57 | timeout |
| 06-14 23:27 | LINK | Buy | 7.97619→8.14766 | +8.23 | take_profit |
| 06-14 16:36 | LINK | Buy | 7.86977→7.85933 | -0.89 | timeout |
| 06-14 14:31 | LINK | Buy | 7.92798→7.84354 | -4.62 | timeout |
| 06-14 07:40 | LINK | Buy | 7.93098→7.89513 | -2.16 | timeout |
| 06-13 22:19 | LINK | Buy | 7.97229→7.9903 | +0.55 | timeout |
| 06-13 19:28 | LINK | Buy | 7.97069→7.96111 | -0.82 | timeout |
| 06-13 12:00 | LINK | Buy | 7.96179→7.9806 | +0.58 | timeout |
| 06-13 09:45 | LINK | Buy | 7.90788→7.95051 | +1.80 | timeout |
| 06-12 13:55 | LINK | Buy | 7.89267→7.78116 | -6.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 17:49 | LINK | Buy | 7.75634→7.92562 | +8.37 | take_profit |
| 06-11 15:51 | LINK | Buy | 7.79545→7.73846 | -3.26 | timeout |
| 06-11 06:45 | LINK | Buy | 7.71993→7.78315 | +2.90 | timeout |
| 06-11 03:33 | LINK | Buy | 7.6139→7.71507 | +4.97 | timeout |
| 06-11 01:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.51168→7.66218 | +7.67 | timeout |
| 06-10 20:37 | LINK | Buy | 7.66081→7.6041 | -3.28 | timeout |
| 06-10 16:33 | LINK | Buy | 7.78495→7.74606 | -2.32 | timeout |
| 06-10 13:40 | LINK | Buy | 7.69502→7.86243 | +8.34 | take_profit |
| 06-10 11:40 | LINK | Buy | 7.67012→7.63359 | -2.25 | timeout |
| 06-09 18:19 | LINK | Buy | 7.69382→7.86373 | +8.47 | take_profit |
| 06-09 14:29 | LINK | Buy | 7.84876→7.73759 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 14:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.87107→7.75918 | -6.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 04:32 | LINK | Buy | 7.85876→7.85104 | -0.74 | timeout |
| 06-08 16:58 | LINK | Buy | 7.96839→7.9912 | +0.78 | timeout |
| 06-08 12:39 | LINK | Buy | 7.89297→7.95751 | +2.91 | timeout |
| 06-08 07:39 | LINK | Buy | 7.74564→7.91492 | +8.38 | take_profit |
| 06-08 02:20 | LINK | Buy | 7.87397→7.89932 | +0.92 | timeout |
| 06-07 19:01 | LINK | Buy | 7.77184→7.66225 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 15:15 | LINK | Buy | 7.64801→7.72067 | +3.43 | timeout |
| 06-07 09:29 | LINK | Buy | 7.69012→7.78825 | +4.74 | timeout |
| 06-07 06:36 | LINK | Buy | 7.54569→7.70797 | +8.23 | take_profit |
| 06-06 15:48 | LINK | Buy | 7.36544→7.36816 | -0.20 | timeout |
| 06-06 10:30 | LINK | Buy | 7.34564→7.24057 | -6.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 08:29 | LINK | Buy | 7.29602→7.45334 | +8.26 | take_profit |
| 06-06 05:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.02115→7.17421 | +8.37 | take_profit |
| 06-06 02:05 | LINK | Buy | 7.44086→7.3351 | -6.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 23:25 | LINK | Buy | 7.45326→7.34829 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
198
closed
41%
win rate
-149.31
total pnl ($)
-18.8 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LINK | 198 | 41% | -18.8 | -149.31 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 1)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 15:57 | LINK | Buy | circuit_breaker |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||