305
closed trades
35%
win rate
-207.82
total pnl ($)
0.965
weight
7d window — n=51 wr=31% pnl=-45.36
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 18:14:14 (24.5d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
perp_spot_basis_regime_gated_siblings
n: 293
· wr: 43.3%
· total_bps: -2729.2
· mean_bps: -9.31
· sharpe: -0.19
· max_dd_bps: -2962.1
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 00:33 | AVAX | Buy | 6.43131→6.4149 | -1.37 | timeout |
| 06-27 21:54 | ADA | Buy | 0.145266→0.144754 | -1.76 | timeout |
| 06-27 19:30 | ADA | Buy | 0.146567→0.145041 | -4.51 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 17:04 | LTC | Buy | 43.2128→42.696 | -5.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 13:35 | SOL | Buy | 71.7868→72.3092 | +2.55 | timeout |
| 06-27 09:47 | LTC | Buy | 42.3836→42.6123 | +1.80 | timeout |
| 06-27 03:07 | ADA | Buy | 0.149627→0.148129 | -4.37 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 19:59 | SOL | Buy | 73.7741→73.0515 | -4.28 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 18:29 | AVAX | Buy | 6.49742→6.45249 | -3.13 | timeout |
| 06-26 15:24 | SOL | Buy | 70.6156→71.6682 | +5.60 | take_profit |
| 06-26 12:39 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0741175→0.0733739 | -4.37 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 11:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.15684→6.14936 | -0.84 | timeout |
| 06-26 07:17 | AVAX | Buy | 6.22546→6.31632 | +5.48 | take_profit |
| 06-26 05:29 | ADA | Buy | 0.142356→0.142314 | -0.47 | timeout |
| 06-26 03:02 | ADA | Buy | 0.139835→0.138406 | -4.44 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 20:34 | ADA | Buy | 0.141255→0.141355 | -0.08 | timeout |
| 06-25 18:23 | LTC | Buy | 40.8902→40.8818 | -0.45 | timeout |
| 06-25 15:02 | ADA | Buy | 0.143486→0.142043 | -4.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:40 | DOGE | Buy | 0.075991→0.0752036 | -4.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 11:30 | ADA | Buy | 0.148417→0.147333 | -3.28 | timeout |
| 06-25 09:27 | LTC | Buy | 41.7054→41.7346 | -0.08 | timeout |
| 06-25 05:55 | AVAX | Buy | 6.60135→6.5346 | -4.40 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 01:15 | ADA | Buy | 0.148107→0.147333 | -2.44 | timeout |
| 06-24 20:01 | SOL | Buy | 65.8189→66.795 | +5.57 | take_profit |
| 06-24 17:47 | LINK | Buy | 7.1973→7.12535 | -4.36 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 16:37 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0752268→0.0752952 | +0.01 | timeout |
| 06-24 14:26 | LTC | Buy | 41.5824→41.6206 | +0.01 | timeout |
| 06-24 10:17 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0789427→0.0786573 | -1.81 | timeout |
| 06-24 04:20 | AVAX | Buy | 6.44711→6.38251 | -4.37 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 21:50 | ADA | Buy | 0.149917→0.151102 | +2.80 | timeout |
| 06-23 19:04 | ADA | Buy | 0.150058→0.149972 | -0.59 | timeout |
| 06-23 16:19 | LTC | Buy | 42.1895→42.0505 | -1.67 | timeout |
| 06-23 14:11 | LINK | Buy | 7.56719→7.6004 | +1.40 | timeout |
| 06-23 11:26 | LTC | Buy | 43.4359→43.5621 | +0.80 | timeout |
| 06-23 09:28 | SOL | Buy | 68.1342→68.8557 | +3.89 | timeout |
| 06-23 06:18 | SOL | Buy | 71.1087→70.4072 | -4.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 03:05 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0819065→0.0819255 | -0.26 | timeout |
| 06-22 23:50 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0820825→0.0822964 | +0.68 | timeout |
| 06-22 21:29 | ADA | Buy | 0.15888→0.15861 | -1.03 | timeout |
| 06-22 15:58 | LINK | Buy | 8.0189→7.9834 | -2.14 | timeout |
| 06-22 13:37 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0843741→0.0846928 | +1.15 | timeout |
| 06-22 06:55 | ADA | Buy | 0.16037→0.16019 | -0.81 | timeout |
| 06-22 04:18 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0832608→0.0830552 | -1.35 | timeout |
| 06-22 02:04 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0832748→0.0835731 | +1.07 | timeout |
| 06-21 23:03 | LINK | Buy | 7.85846→7.81145 | -2.76 | timeout |
| 06-21 20:32 | LTC | Buy | 45.1623→45.1677 | -0.32 | timeout |
| 06-21 17:52 | SOL | Buy | 74.6062→74.3888 | -1.53 | timeout |
| 06-21 14:42 | ADA | Buy | 0.16153→0.16167 | -0.02 | timeout |
| 06-21 12:11 | ADA | Buy | 0.16153→0.16091 | -1.90 | timeout |
| 06-21 09:53 | SOL | Buy | 73.083→73.9399 | +4.33 | timeout |
| 06-21 07:35 | LTC | Buy | 44.7072→44.8588 | +1.00 | timeout |
| 06-21 04:41 | ADA | Buy | 0.162311→0.16162 | -2.06 | timeout |
| 06-20 23:24 | SOL | Buy | 73.469→73.51 | -0.14 | timeout |
| 06-20 14:46 | ADA | Buy | 0.16019→0.162719 | +5.96 | take_profit |
| 06-20 11:47 | LINK | Buy | 7.95399→7.94561 | -0.78 | timeout |
| 06-20 09:06 | AVAX | Buy | 6.09902→6.18755 | +5.44 | take_profit |
| 06-20 02:11 | AVAX | Buy | 5.91268→5.93432 | +1.11 | timeout |
| 06-19 23:04 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0828427→0.0831332 | +1.04 | timeout |
| 06-19 19:54 | AVAX | Buy | 5.75794→5.86673 | +7.20 | take_profit |
| 06-19 18:05 | LTC | Buy | 44.19→44.166 | -0.58 | timeout |
| 06-19 13:02 | AVAX | Buy | 6.05921→6.09388 | +1.93 | timeout |
| 06-19 09:58 | ADA | Buy | 0.16026→0.15957 | -2.08 | timeout |
| 06-19 07:43 | AVAX | Buy | 6.03481→5.97452 | -4.35 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 04:31 | ADA | Buy | 0.16196→0.1603 | -4.46 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 01:19 | AVAX | Buy | 6.31258→6.30132 | -1.07 | timeout |
| 06-18 20:59 | AVAX | Buy | 6.35409→6.34041 | -1.22 | timeout |
| 06-18 16:51 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0821815→0.0825504 | +1.43 | timeout |
| 06-18 13:40 | SOL | Buy | 71.5437→70.8429 | -4.27 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 09:52 | LTC | Buy | 44.5101→44.3189 | -2.08 | timeout |
| 06-18 07:53 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0846051→0.0849827 | +1.43 | timeout |
| 06-18 05:30 | SOL | Buy | 71.1717→70.9054 | -1.85 | timeout |
| 06-17 23:14 | LTC | Buy | 44.7282→44.8648 | +0.86 | timeout |
| 06-17 19:20 | ADA | Buy | 0.169132→0.167374 | -4.52 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 17:27 | SOL | Buy | 74.1461→73.8009 | -2.23 | timeout |
| 06-17 14:59 | LTC | Buy | 45.2573→45.1717 | -1.12 | timeout |
| 06-17 12:07 | AVAX | Buy | 6.8012→6.8129 | +0.33 | timeout |
| 06-17 08:31 | SOL | Buy | 73.199→72.4759 | -4.31 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 04:28 | ADA | Buy | 0.173143→0.172837 | -1.06 | timeout |
| 06-17 02:23 | SOL | Buy | 73.244→74.1659 | +4.68 | timeout |
| 06-17 00:00 | LTC | Buy | 45.9235→45.7356 | -2.00 | timeout |
| 06-16 18:40 | ADA | Buy | 0.175934→0.174139 | -4.44 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 16:29 | LINK | Buy | 8.19045→8.19465 | -0.16 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:16 | LTC | Buy | 45.3733→44.8903 | -4.62 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 09:46 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0884191→0.0887288 | +1.05 | timeout |
| 06-16 06:34 | SOL | Buy | 73.586→73.9359 | +1.54 | timeout |
| 06-16 03:30 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0869217→0.0873532 | +1.63 | timeout |
| 06-15 23:48 | DOGE | Buy | 0.088029→0.088005 | -0.46 | timeout |
| 06-15 20:48 | ADA | Buy | 0.183436→0.181544 | -4.49 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 19:19 | SOL | Buy | 75.4753→74.7304 | -4.31 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 16:26 | AVAX | Buy | 6.95104→7.05214 | +5.46 | take_profit |
| 06-15 14:01 | SOL | Buy | 74.0611→73.3323 | -4.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 10:28 | ADA | Buy | 0.181615→0.180615 | -2.56 | timeout |
| 06-15 02:54 | LTC | Buy | 45.1893→45.2387 | +0.08 | timeout |
| 06-14 23:04 | ADA | Buy | 0.176194→0.174359 | -4.53 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 20:59 | SOL | Buy | 67.5351→67.7688 | +1.03 | timeout |
| 06-14 18:35 | ADA | Buy | 0.166972→0.165988 | -2.71 | timeout |
| 06-14 16:23 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0860115→0.0865244 | +2.03 | timeout |
| 06-14 14:01 | SOL | Buy | 67.8252→67.6798 | -1.21 | timeout |
| 06-14 10:41 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0873598→0.0873462 | -0.43 | timeout |
| 06-14 08:11 | AVAX | Buy | 6.64306→6.65184 | +0.17 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
305
closed
35%
win rate
-207.82
total pnl ($)
-17.1 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 72 | 15% | -41.4 | -119.19 |
| LTC | 58 | 34% | -20.3 | -47.10 |
| SOL | 52 | 44% | -3.8 | -7.88 |
| DOGE | 45 | 40% | -12.9 | -23.22 |
| AVAX | 44 | 50% | +8.4 | +14.72 |
| LINK | 34 | 41% | -18.5 | -25.14 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 2)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 06:20 | AVAX | Buy | circuit_breaker |
| 06-27 23:36 | AVAX | Buy | circuit_breaker |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||