283
closed trades
42%
win rate
-547.96
total pnl ($)
0.693
weight
7d window — n=51 wr=41% pnl=-88.28
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 18:14:14 (24.5d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
perp_spot_basis_regime_gated_siblings
n: 292
· wr: 34.9%
· total_bps: -4327.0
· mean_bps: -14.82
· sharpe: -0.13
· max_dd_bps: -5530.6
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 22:16 | DOGE | Buy | 0.076148→0.0742223 | -10.48 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 20:57 | LTC | Buy | 42.6307→42.3614 | -2.95 | timeout |
| 06-27 16:23 | AVAX | Buy | 6.57434→6.62654 | +2.80 | timeout |
| 06-27 14:19 | LINK | Buy | 7.38174→7.40445 | +0.86 | timeout |
| 06-27 09:36 | ADA | Buy | 0.147547→0.146903 | -2.05 | timeout |
| 06-27 07:10 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0756069→0.0755911 | -0.41 | timeout |
| 06-27 02:56 | LTC | Buy | 40.9682→42.2794 | +12.54 | timeout |
| 06-27 00:32 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0737944→0.0752872 | +7.80 | timeout |
| 06-26 11:53 | ADA | Buy | 0.146247→0.142563 | -10.44 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 07:34 | ADA | Buy | 0.141235→0.146273 | +13.89 | timeout |
| 06-26 07:14 | ADA | Buy | 0.140545→0.146693 | +17.14 | take_profit |
| 06-26 02:13 | SOL | Buy | 67.6691→65.9881 | -10.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 02:13 | AVAX | Buy | 6.16014→6.00549 | -10.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 17:16 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0715989→0.0747133 | +17.04 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:51 | LTC | Buy | 41.1943→40.1539 | -10.47 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:45 | LTC | Buy | 41.6944→40.6425 | -10.45 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:45 | ADA | Buy | 0.148407→0.144631 | -10.54 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 11:03 | AVAX | Buy | 6.4183→6.43079 | +0.36 | timeout |
| 06-25 10:23 | AVAX | Buy | 6.59075→6.42488 | -10.45 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:14 | AVAX | Buy | 6.29947→6.57406 | +17.09 | take_profit |
| 06-25 04:44 | LTC | Buy | 39.6329→41.3567 | +17.04 | take_profit |
| 06-24 17:20 | LINK | Buy | 7.40235→7.21559 | -10.45 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:47 | SOL | Buy | 68.9733→67.2563 | -10.32 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:42 | AVAX | Buy | 6.4001→6.23852 | -10.47 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:22 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0793008→0.077232 | -10.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 10:15 | ADA | Buy | 0.150378→0.14652 | -10.61 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 10:10 | ADA | Buy | 0.151938→0.148099 | -10.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 08:51 | ADA | Buy | 0.149907→0.150562 | +1.49 | timeout |
| 06-24 06:04 | ADA | Buy | 0.150048→0.151782 | +4.24 | timeout |
| 06-24 03:23 | LTC | Buy | 42.1625→41.8125 | -3.67 | timeout |
| 06-24 00:54 | LINK | Buy | 7.57549→7.6169 | +1.81 | timeout |
| 06-23 22:00 | AVAX | Buy | 6.20785→6.42849 | +13.80 | timeout |
| 06-23 19:35 | DOGE | Buy | 0.08009→0.0784374 | -8.49 | timeout |
| 06-23 08:15 | LTC | Buy | 44.6312→43.5133 | -10.42 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 08:13 | SOL | Buy | 71.0177→69.228 | -10.40 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.84676→7.64816 | -10.49 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0819335→0.0798761 | -10.40 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 20:48 | AVAX | Buy | 6.24706→6.28443 | +2.07 | timeout |
| 06-22 18:55 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0848392→0.0827179 | -10.37 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 17:39 | ADA | Buy | 0.16002→0.15879 | -3.33 | timeout |
| 06-22 15:15 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0831168→0.084031 | +4.03 | timeout |
| 06-22 11:12 | ADA | Buy | 0.15835→0.16099 | +6.31 | timeout |
| 06-22 08:26 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0834319→0.0836531 | +0.67 | timeout |
| 06-22 02:24 | LTC | Buy | 45.2093→45.0907 | -1.43 | timeout |
| 06-21 23:11 | ADA | Buy | 0.16153→0.15833 | -8.27 | timeout |
| 06-21 21:09 | SOL | Buy | 74.3261→72.4729 | -10.36 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 20:46 | AVAX | Buy | 6.27287→6.20605 | -4.60 | timeout |
| 06-21 18:33 | LTC | Buy | 44.6432→45.0907 | +3.64 | timeout |
| 06-21 15:56 | ADA | Buy | 0.162411→0.162139 | -1.03 | timeout |
| 06-21 11:02 | AVAX | Buy | 6.23726→6.29842 | +3.58 | timeout |
| 06-21 07:21 | SOL | Buy | 71.7108→73.331 | +8.67 | timeout |
| 06-21 01:26 | LINK | Buy | 7.87647→7.95131 | +3.39 | timeout |
| 06-20 21:15 | ADA | Buy | 0.163061→0.162079 | -2.78 | timeout |
| 06-20 13:33 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0834929→0.0832532 | -1.52 | timeout |
| 06-20 10:04 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0828427→0.084152 | +5.95 | timeout |
| 06-20 06:40 | AVAX | Buy | 5.81785→5.9895 | +11.53 | timeout |
| 06-20 03:44 | LTC | Buy | 44.3871→43.932 | -4.50 | timeout |
| 06-19 23:59 | LTC | Buy | 43.5029→44.059 | +4.69 | timeout |
| 06-19 19:51 | LTC | Buy | 43.4209→44.011 | +5.09 | timeout |
| 06-19 17:50 | LINK | Buy | 7.88077→7.91352 | +1.29 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:42 | LTC | Buy | 43.6149→44.3789 | +6.65 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.31638→6.15838 | -10.35 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 18:03 | LINK | Buy | 7.94829→7.81415 | -7.08 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:44 | SOL | Buy | 70.7886→69.0331 | -10.28 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:29 | SOL | Buy | 71.5437→69.7616 | -10.32 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:23 | LTC | Buy | 44.6452→43.5293 | -10.41 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 09:19 | ADA | Buy | 0.166742→0.167058 | +0.34 | timeout |
| 06-18 04:11 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0867117→0.0845146 | -10.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 23:06 | AVAX | Buy | 6.7952→6.73462 | -3.83 | timeout |
| 06-17 22:03 | ADA | Buy | 0.167862→0.163627 | -10.47 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 20:13 | SOL | Buy | 72.8689→71.8212 | -6.17 | timeout |
| 06-17 16:38 | LTC | Buy | 45.7854→45.6916 | -1.16 | timeout |
| 06-17 13:22 | ADA | Buy | 0.171283→0.168798 | -6.05 | timeout |
| 06-17 08:42 | AVAX | Buy | 6.90543→6.82389 | -5.08 | timeout |
| 06-17 05:33 | LTC | Buy | 45.2243→45.6936 | +3.79 | timeout |
| 06-17 01:36 | LTC | Buy | 45.2643→45.4856 | +1.54 | timeout |
| 06-16 17:35 | SOL | Buy | 73.621→73.349 | -1.79 | timeout |
| 06-16 15:14 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0870338→0.0869663 | -0.67 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:33 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0883871→0.0861753 | -10.36 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 12:38 | SOL | Buy | 74.0801→75.2627 | +5.99 | timeout |
| 06-16 10:36 | ADA | Buy | 0.178205→0.180235 | +4.20 | timeout |
| 06-16 07:21 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0887572→0.0874791 | -6.08 | timeout |
| 06-15 23:51 | AVAX | Buy | 6.89972→6.83729 | -4.00 | timeout |
| 06-15 23:37 | AVAX | Buy | 6.96694→6.7919 | -10.43 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 21:08 | AVAX | Buy | 7.03436→6.85865 | -10.37 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 15:41 | SOL | Buy | 71.4917→74.6158 | +17.11 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:53 | LTC | Buy | 45.2023→46.2314 | +8.76 | timeout |
| 06-15 11:48 | ADA | Buy | 0.182136→0.184234 | +4.26 | timeout |
| 06-15 05:16 | LTC | Buy | 44.134→45.2087 | +9.40 | timeout |
| 06-14 21:52 | SOL | Buy | 67.5541→70.5164 | +17.19 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:50 | ADA | Buy | 0.167682→0.175016 | +17.10 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:41 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0873598→0.0886618 | +5.62 | timeout |
| 06-14 17:49 | AVAX | Buy | 6.64226→6.47624 | -10.24 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 12:53 | ADA | Buy | 0.172053→0.167744 | -10.33 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 12:36 | ADA | Buy | 0.172943→0.168623 | -10.29 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 12:24 | SOL | Buy | 68.7563→68.0608 | -4.33 | timeout |
| 06-14 05:48 | AVAX | Buy | 6.71648→6.67303 | -2.92 | timeout |
| 06-14 03:05 | AVAX | Buy | 6.69327→6.70032 | +0.04 | timeout |
| 06-13 23:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.66727→6.71642 | +2.55 | timeout |
| 06-13 20:35 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0872218→0.0876001 | +1.36 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
283
closed
42%
win rate
-547.96
total pnl ($)
-48.4 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 59 | 31% | -77.8 | -182.69 |
| AVAX | 51 | 39% | -62.2 | -126.94 |
| DOGE | 51 | 43% | -49.3 | -100.59 |
| LTC | 48 | 50% | +0.5 | +0.22 |
| SOL | 45 | 49% | -16.1 | -28.86 |
| LINK | 29 | 41% | -93.9 | -109.10 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 3)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 06:20 | AVAX | Buy | circuit_breaker |
| 06-28 04:16 | AVAX | Buy | circuit_breaker |
| 06-27 23:19 | SOL | Buy | circuit_breaker |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||