191
closed trades
39%
win rate
-171.00
total pnl ($)
1.452
weight
7d window — n=27 wr=44% pnl=+37.87
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 18:12:04 (23.9d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
perp_spot_basis_regime_gated_siblings
n: 180
· wr: 43.3%
· total_bps: -2090.9
· mean_bps: -11.62
· sharpe: -0.15
· max_dd_bps: -2762.6
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 07:36 | AVAX | Buy | 6.56024→6.56356 | -0.16 | timeout |
| 06-26 17:24 | AVAX | Buy | 6.32568→6.46518 | +8.45 | take_profit |
| 06-26 13:55 | AVAX | Buy | 6.09102→6.22264 | +8.29 | take_profit |
| 06-26 03:56 | AVAX | Buy | 6.0205→6.15156 | +8.35 | take_profit |
| 06-25 21:36 | AVAX | Buy | 6.09782→6.23314 | +8.52 | take_profit |
| 06-25 17:16 | AVAX | Buy | 6.09842→6.23334 | +8.51 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:40 | AVAX | Buy | 6.36159→6.26969 | -6.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 08:08 | AVAX | Buy | 6.56814→6.51117 | -3.84 | timeout |
| 06-25 03:19 | AVAX | Buy | 6.43391→6.4096 | -1.87 | timeout |
| 06-25 00:57 | AVAX | Buy | 6.37529→6.3986 | +1.11 | timeout |
| 06-24 20:06 | AVAX | Buy | 6.08582→6.21685 | +8.25 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | AVAX | Buy | 6.24836→6.15818 | -6.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 02:18 | AVAX | Buy | 6.48952→6.4182 | -4.76 | timeout |
| 06-23 22:16 | AVAX | Buy | 6.36999→6.50817 | +8.31 | take_profit |
| 06-23 18:39 | AVAX | Buy | 6.34929→6.27723 | -4.89 | timeout |
| 06-23 14:13 | AVAX | Buy | 6.23106→6.36561 | +8.28 | take_profit |
| 06-23 09:20 | AVAX | Buy | 6.04531→6.17536 | +8.25 | take_profit |
| 06-23 06:21 | AVAX | Buy | 6.21605→6.1274 | -6.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 15:00 | AVAX | Buy | 6.36199→6.33102 | -2.31 | timeout |
| 06-22 12:02 | AVAX | Buy | 6.24796→6.3827 | +8.27 | take_profit |
| 06-22 06:07 | AVAX | Buy | 6.29177→6.20324 | -5.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 04:24 | AVAX | Buy | 6.26497→6.24724 | -1.47 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:23 | AVAX | Buy | 6.11303→6.24464 | +8.26 | take_profit |
| 06-21 19:16 | AVAX | Buy | 6.29537→6.26443 | -2.32 | timeout |
| 06-21 14:01 | AVAX | Buy | 6.30248→6.29173 | -1.03 | timeout |
| 06-21 08:35 | AVAX | Buy | 6.31758→6.22823 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 18:18 | AVAX | Buy | 6.14113→6.11657 | -1.97 | timeout |
| 06-20 05:53 | AVAX | Buy | 5.94199→6.0005 | +3.60 | timeout |
| 06-20 02:54 | AVAX | Buy | 5.89087→5.94151 | +3.09 | timeout |
| 06-19 19:54 | AVAX | Buy | 5.75714→5.88253 | +8.35 | take_profit |
| 06-19 17:59 | AVAX | Buy | 6.08312→5.98981 | -6.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.31318→6.22063 | -6.20 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 23:00 | AVAX | Buy | 6.35549→6.29563 | -4.12 | timeout |
| 06-18 20:07 | AVAX | Buy | 6.29897→6.36001 | +3.53 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:17 | AVAX | Buy | 6.59515→6.50252 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 05:04 | AVAX | Buy | 6.66937→6.57327 | -6.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 04:03 | AVAX | Buy | 6.78009→6.68518 | -5.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 22:03 | AVAX | Buy | 6.7835→6.68568 | -6.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:20 | AVAX | Buy | 6.87882→6.78021 | -6.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 12:14 | AVAX | Buy | 6.8206→6.81969 | -0.42 | timeout |
| 06-17 08:14 | AVAX | Buy | 6.94824→6.85016 | -6.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 20:47 | AVAX | Buy | 6.8129→6.92987 | +6.50 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:18 | AVAX | Buy | 6.87522→6.77861 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 10:40 | AVAX | Buy | 6.92623→6.97756 | +2.62 | timeout |
| 06-16 02:27 | AVAX | Buy | 6.85541→6.75703 | -6.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 23:01 | AVAX | Buy | 6.87572→6.82769 | -3.16 | timeout |
| 06-15 19:19 | AVAX | Buy | 7.00005→6.89882 | -6.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 18:09 | AVAX | Buy | 6.95594→7.01435 | +2.98 | timeout |
| 06-15 05:01 | AVAX | Buy | 6.70938→6.73752 | +1.30 | timeout |
| 06-14 21:26 | AVAX | Buy | 6.47992→6.61924 | +8.25 | take_profit |
| 06-14 18:22 | AVAX | Buy | 6.47832→6.38371 | -6.20 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 12:34 | AVAX | Buy | 6.64586→6.62014 | -1.90 | timeout |
| 06-14 10:10 | AVAX | Buy | 6.64226→6.65893 | +0.66 | timeout |
| 06-14 07:21 | AVAX | Buy | 6.71508→6.64824 | -4.33 | timeout |
| 06-14 04:51 | AVAX | Buy | 6.71658→6.67033 | -3.11 | timeout |
| 06-13 22:19 | AVAX | Buy | 6.69787→6.73252 | +1.70 | timeout |
| 06-13 18:21 | AVAX | Buy | 6.72498→6.69243 | -2.31 | timeout |
| 06-13 15:54 | AVAX | Buy | 6.67907→6.73832 | +3.18 | timeout |
| 06-13 08:33 | AVAX | Buy | 6.58195→6.65374 | +4.01 | timeout |
| 06-13 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.57674→6.59735 | +0.90 | timeout |
| 06-12 19:03 | AVAX | Buy | 6.53163→6.58975 | +3.21 | timeout |
| 06-12 16:38 | AVAX | Buy | 6.56864→6.59305 | +1.16 | timeout |
| 06-12 13:12 | AVAX | Buy | 6.64236→6.59555 | -3.18 | timeout |
| 06-11 20:31 | AVAX | Buy | 6.58975→6.61525 | +1.17 | timeout |
| 06-11 17:45 | AVAX | Buy | 6.51293→6.65394 | +8.29 | take_profit |
| 06-11 12:48 | AVAX | Buy | 6.56764→6.54166 | -1.95 | timeout |
| 06-11 09:23 | AVAX | Buy | 6.59585→6.53976 | -3.78 | timeout |
| 06-11 06:56 | AVAX | Buy | 6.60315→6.57656 | -1.99 | timeout |
| 06-11 03:56 | AVAX | Buy | 6.46452→6.60535 | +8.35 | take_profit |
| 06-11 00:50 | AVAX | Buy | 6.34399→6.43039 | +5.09 | timeout |
| 06-10 20:36 | AVAX | Buy | 6.44731→6.45289 | +0.00 | timeout |
| 06-10 17:32 | AVAX | Buy | 6.53313→6.43967 | -6.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 15:11 | AVAX | Buy | 6.58455→6.49023 | -6.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 17:18 | AVAX | Buy | 6.48432→6.62434 | +8.28 | take_profit |
| 06-09 16:19 | AVAX | Buy | 6.56354→6.47154 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 14:19 | AVAX | Buy | 6.68367→6.58836 | -6.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 11:33 | AVAX | Buy | 6.71498→6.67983 | -2.45 | timeout |
| 06-09 04:09 | AVAX | Buy | 6.61345→6.66303 | +2.66 | timeout |
| 06-08 19:35 | AVAX | Buy | 6.8002→6.83249 | +1.54 | timeout |
| 06-08 15:02 | AVAX | Buy | 6.77019→6.83099 | +3.23 | timeout |
| 06-08 11:28 | AVAX | Buy | 6.65716→6.8004 | +8.24 | take_profit |
| 06-08 04:35 | AVAX | Buy | 6.69077→6.59625 | -6.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 01:25 | AVAX | Buy | 6.75039→6.65501 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 22:12 | AVAX | Buy | 6.51453→6.65604 | +8.32 | take_profit |
| 06-07 10:01 | AVAX | Buy | 6.83631→6.74064 | -5.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 09:42 | AVAX | Buy | 6.8198→6.7903 | -2.07 | timeout |
| 06-06 15:05 | AVAX | Buy | 6.77039→6.67499 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 10:03 | AVAX | Buy | 6.73448→6.64022 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 06:13 | AVAX | Buy | 6.50713→6.64834 | +8.32 | take_profit |
| 06-06 04:05 | AVAX | Buy | 6.56234→6.46615 | -6.22 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 01:42 | AVAX | Buy | 6.88632→6.7894 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 22:04 | AVAX | Buy | 6.97634→6.87574 | -6.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 19:01 | AVAX | Buy | 6.8206→6.72415 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 16:02 | AVAX | Buy | 6.92253→6.82378 | -6.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 13:45 | AVAX | Buy | 7.1899→7.08818 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 12:01 | AVAX | Buy | 7.14739→7.04691 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 01:30 | AVAX | Buy | 7.6017→7.67218 | +3.34 | timeout |
| 06-04 20:43 | AVAX | Buy | 7.68552→7.74116 | +2.55 | timeout |
| 06-04 12:48 | AVAX | Buy | 7.65371→7.82204 | +8.44 | take_profit |
| 06-04 09:22 | AVAX | Buy | 7.77224→7.66295 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
191
closed
39%
win rate
-171.00
total pnl ($)
-22.4 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX | 191 | 39% | -22.4 | -171.00 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 1)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 12:46 | AVAX | Buy | circuit_breaker |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||