352
closed trades
43%
win rate
-169.21
total pnl ($)
0.994
weight
7d window — n=59 wr=44% pnl=-38.02
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 18:12:04 (23.9d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
perp_spot_basis_regime_gated_siblings
n: 387
· wr: 40.8%
· total_bps: -5888.0
· mean_bps: -15.21
· sharpe: -0.18
· max_dd_bps: -5982.3
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 15:05 | NEAR | Buy | 1.84246→1.88213 | +8.25 | take_profit |
| 06-27 14:30 | ATOM | Buy | 1.5897→1.5995 | +2.14 | timeout |
| 06-27 11:57 | LTC | Buy | 42.5526→42.4564 | -1.25 | timeout |
| 06-27 08:50 | SUI | Buy | 0.711148→0.705264 | -3.66 | timeout |
| 06-27 06:35 | LTC | Buy | 42.2966→42.1895 | -1.34 | timeout |
| 06-27 00:36 | ADA | Buy | 0.147547→0.147373 | -0.85 | timeout |
| 06-26 20:33 | SOL | Buy | 73.582→72.5608 | -5.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 18:36 | AVAX | Buy | 6.51703→6.42298 | -6.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 18:00 | XRP | Buy | 1.03706→1.04674 | +3.38 | timeout |
| 06-26 12:43 | LTC | Buy | 40.9222→40.3227 | -6.22 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 11:45 | LTC | Buy | 41.4384→40.8563 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 08:18 | NEAR | Buy | 1.85486→1.82863 | -6.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:47 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0727982→0.0743814 | +8.34 | take_profit |
| 06-26 01:50 | SUI | Buy | 0.67973→0.675261 | -3.00 | timeout |
| 06-25 22:34 | ADA | Buy | 0.141025→0.143344 | +6.21 | timeout |
| 06-25 19:21 | NEAR | Buy | 1.86087→1.83472 | -5.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 17:16 | AVAX | Buy | 6.09892→6.23334 | +8.47 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:42 | DOGE | Buy | 0.076031→0.0749298 | -6.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 11:41 | NEAR | Buy | 1.93718→1.90967 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 10:30 | NEAR | Buy | 1.96019→1.93275 | -5.89 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 08:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.149047→0.149923 | +2.01 | timeout |
| 06-25 05:56 | ATOM | Buy | 1.64041→1.66808 | +6.41 | timeout |
| 06-25 02:03 | AVAX | Buy | 6.4206→6.43479 | +0.53 | timeout |
| 06-24 20:01 | SOL | Buy | 65.2118→66.632 | +8.36 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:06 | BNB | Buy | 567.302→559.36 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:48 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0777024→0.0766055 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 13:12 | AVAX | Buy | 6.4001→6.30966 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 09:10 | BNB | Buy | 579.605→576.696 | -2.38 | timeout |
| 06-24 07:00 | LTC | Buy | 41.7254→42.1285 | +3.51 | timeout |
| 06-24 03:20 | ATOM | Buy | 1.72803→1.70312 | -6.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 02:45 | BNB | Buy | 577.324→578.005 | +0.10 | timeout |
| 06-23 23:51 | ADA | Buy | 0.150027→0.151352 | +3.17 | timeout |
| 06-23 20:33 | AVAX | Buy | 6.32418→6.41919 | +5.64 | timeout |
| 06-23 18:19 | LTC | Buy | 42.1845→42.0575 | -1.55 | timeout |
| 06-23 15:53 | BNB | Buy | 573.283→572.597 | -0.80 | timeout |
| 06-23 13:34 | BNB | Buy | 571.213→574.066 | +1.69 | timeout |
| 06-23 11:28 | LINK | Buy | 7.50288→7.5889 | +4.25 | timeout |
| 06-23 08:15 | LTC | Buy | 44.2381→43.6193 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 04:56 | NEAR | Buy | 2.05131→2.02228 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 03:31 | LINK | Buy | 7.84676→7.87463 | +1.06 | timeout |
| 06-23 01:03 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0827987→0.0825144 | -1.73 | timeout |
| 06-22 22:56 | ATOM | Buy | 1.78775→1.78685 | -0.56 | timeout |
| 06-22 20:43 | NEAR | Buy | 2.12123→2.10747 | -2.96 | timeout |
| 06-22 17:30 | LINK | Buy | 8.03871→7.92605 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 14:35 | SUI | Buy | 0.732543→0.728458 | -2.61 | timeout |
| 06-22 11:10 | SUI | Buy | 0.711238→0.726628 | +8.28 | take_profit |
| 06-22 07:22 | ATOM | Buy | 1.79355→1.80605 | +2.43 | timeout |
| 06-22 03:17 | XRP | Buy | 1.12978→1.13472 | +1.38 | timeout |
| 06-21 22:39 | NEAR | Buy | 2.12843→2.09843 | -6.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 20:48 | NEAR | Buy | 2.17784→2.14699 | -6.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 19:51 | SOL | Buy | 74.3732→74.4148 | -0.15 | timeout |
| 06-21 17:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.14349→1.14481 | +0.10 | timeout |
| 06-21 15:01 | LTC | Buy | 45.0333→45.3227 | +2.20 | timeout |
| 06-21 11:34 | AVAX | Buy | 6.25866→6.27323 | +0.58 | timeout |
| 06-21 09:33 | LTC | Buy | 44.6432→44.8278 | +1.31 | timeout |
| 06-21 05:15 | ADA | Buy | 0.162411→0.1601 | -6.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 04:41 | BNB | Buy | 589.537→589.633 | -0.31 | timeout |
| 06-21 00:42 | LTC | Buy | 44.2961→44.4909 | +1.39 | timeout |
| 06-20 22:13 | SOL | Buy | 71.7238→73.294 | +8.38 | take_profit |
| 06-20 14:46 | NEAR | Buy | 2.10843→2.15466 | +8.41 | take_profit |
| 06-20 14:00 | ATOM | Buy | 1.78725→1.76198 | -5.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 10:49 | SUI | Buy | 0.7185→0.71911 | -0.02 | timeout |
| 06-20 08:47 | SOL | Buy | 71.6497→71.3563 | -2.01 | timeout |
| 06-20 06:35 | XRP | Buy | 1.13858→1.14951 | +3.49 | timeout |
| 06-20 02:11 | ATOM | Buy | 1.79755→1.78905 | -2.23 | timeout |
| 06-19 23:41 | LINK | Buy | 7.87467→7.92842 | +2.37 | timeout |
| 06-19 18:44 | LTC | Buy | 44.3911→44.038 | -3.54 | timeout |
| 06-19 18:30 | AVAX | Buy | 6.02961→5.94474 | -5.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 16:34 | SOL | Buy | 68.5303→69.3066 | +4.17 | timeout |
| 06-19 14:22 | XRP | Buy | 1.12808→1.13482 | +2.03 | timeout |
| 06-19 11:58 | ADA | Buy | 0.16032→0.15968 | -1.92 | timeout |
| 06-19 09:57 | AVAX | Buy | 6.03741→6.06538 | +1.50 | timeout |
| 06-19 06:42 | LTC | Buy | 43.6149→43.4651 | -1.73 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.30298→6.21464 | -5.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 00:52 | ATOM | Buy | 1.79355→1.80715 | +2.70 | timeout |
| 06-18 22:34 | ATOM | Buy | 1.78465→1.78905 | +0.63 | timeout |
| 06-18 19:20 | LTC | Buy | 43.2718→43.2692 | -0.40 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:18 | LINK | Buy | 8.03341→7.91766 | -6.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 10:06 | ATOM | Buy | 1.85856→1.83242 | -5.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 09:27 | ATOM | Buy | 1.86327→1.85744 | -1.61 | timeout |
| 06-18 06:32 | LTC | Buy | 44.6452→44.3489 | -3.01 | timeout |
| 06-17 23:41 | NEAR | Buy | 2.21445→2.18336 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:42 | ATOM | Buy | 1.95439→1.92585 | -6.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 18:00 | SUI | Buy | 0.806131→0.794554 | -6.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:02 | SOL | Buy | 72.2968→73.8689 | +8.33 | take_profit |
| 06-17 15:01 | BNB | Buy | 604.191→602.119 | -1.75 | timeout |
| 06-17 12:14 | BNB | Buy | 601.97→606.468 | +2.61 | timeout |
| 06-17 08:49 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0869517→0.0857337 | -5.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 06:42 | ATOM | Buy | 1.9965→1.97831 | -3.98 | timeout |
| 06-17 02:23 | ADA | Buy | 0.170973→0.174656 | +8.25 | take_profit |
| 06-17 01:36 | LINK | Buy | 8.30848→8.26903 | -2.27 | timeout |
| 06-16 23:22 | ATOM | Buy | 2.0045→1.9936 | -2.53 | timeout |
| 06-16 20:34 | SUI | Buy | 0.786567→0.79924 | +6.07 | timeout |
| 06-16 16:29 | BNB | Buy | 603.521→605.868 | +1.20 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:13 | SOL | Buy | 74.7162→73.6821 | -5.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 11:45 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0883341→0.087966 | -2.02 | timeout |
| 06-16 07:31 | ATOM | Buy | 1.95359→1.9969 | +8.52 | take_profit |
| 06-16 05:49 | ATOM | Buy | 1.94719→1.95911 | +2.11 | timeout |
| 06-16 02:27 | SOL | Buy | 74.1181→73.0935 | -5.89 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:35 | ADA | Buy | 0.178325→0.176976 | -3.38 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
352
closed
43%
win rate
-169.21
total pnl ($)
-12.1 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATOM | 66 | 44% | -8.4 | -21.82 |
| NEAR | 47 | 34% | -24.0 | -44.98 |
| LTC | 34 | 29% | -36.4 | -49.37 |
| ADA | 31 | 39% | -27.4 | -33.96 |
| AVAX | 30 | 43% | -29.6 | -35.41 |
| XRP | 30 | 53% | +7.6 | +9.15 |
| BNB | 28 | 46% | -5.8 | -6.35 |
| SUI | 26 | 46% | -4.5 | -4.83 |
| DOGE | 25 | 48% | -1.3 | -1.31 |
| SOL | 18 | 50% | +35.4 | +25.46 |
| LINK | 17 | 53% | -8.5 | -5.79 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 2)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 13:57 | NEAR | Buy | circuit_breaker |
| 06-27 11:34 | ATOM | Buy | circuit_breaker |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||