314
closed trades
43%
win rate
-295.58
total pnl ($)
1.456
weight
7d window — n=61 wr=51% pnl=+55.49
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-04 02:59:08 (26.1d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
recovered_011__restored_b08c9006
n: 155
· wr: 38.7%
· total_bps: -2564.2
· mean_bps: -16.54
· sharpe: -0.11
· max_dd_bps: -3761.4
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 00:50 | BNB | Buy | 557.009→555.251 | -2.49 | timeout |
| 06-29 21:31 | LTC | Buy | 42.7297→43.3262 | +7.78 | timeout |
| 06-29 11:41 | AVAX | Sell | 6.61435→6.57944 | +2.67 | timeout |
| 06-29 08:13 | ADA | Buy | 0.143906→0.144624 | +2.52 | timeout |
| 06-29 08:03 | SOL | Buy | 71.1477→72.8181 | +13.49 | timeout |
| 06-29 07:39 | AVAX | Buy | 6.47442→6.54926 | +6.34 | timeout |
| 06-29 07:29 | XRP | Buy | 1.04626→1.05034 | +1.81 | timeout |
| 06-29 02:13 | ETH | Buy | 1578.06→1548.47 | -11.79 | stop_loss |
| 06-28 22:20 | XRP | Buy | 1.05536→1.03964 | -9.42 | timeout |
| 06-28 22:20 | ETH | Buy | 1583.66→1561.74 | -8.81 | timeout |
| 06-28 21:43 | AVAX | Buy | 6.30938→6.4011 | +8.16 | timeout |
| 06-28 19:47 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0739745→0.0725436 | -12.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-28 19:42 | SOL | Buy | 72.0968→70.742 | -11.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 23:29 | BTC | Buy | 60794→59936 | -8.99 | timeout |
| 06-27 19:31 | LINK | Buy | 7.44846→7.30672 | -11.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 19:25 | DOGE | Buy | 0.07618→0.0747239 | -12.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 18:06 | ADA | Buy | 0.149017→0.14618 | -11.91 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 12:37 | AVAX | Buy | 6.56544→6.52537 | -4.26 | timeout |
| 06-27 11:56 | SOL | Buy | 72.2988→71.7622 | -4.97 | timeout |
| 06-27 08:02 | AVAX | Sell | 6.62474→6.55644 | +5.65 | timeout |
| 06-27 02:07 | ADA | Buy | 0.148617→0.147883 | -3.54 | timeout |
| 06-26 20:45 | BTC | Buy | 59106→59611 | +4.55 | timeout |
| 06-26 16:00 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0730603→0.0753612 | +18.33 | take_profit |
| 06-26 16:00 | XRP | Buy | 1.01815→1.05024 | +18.38 | take_profit |
| 06-26 15:24 | ETH | Buy | 1529.05→1577.74 | +18.55 | take_profit |
| 06-26 14:12 | SOL | Buy | 68.8763→71.0593 | +18.47 | take_profit |
| 06-26 12:40 | AVAX | Sell | 6.29603→6.09472 | +18.62 | take_profit |
| 06-26 07:02 | LINK | Buy | 7.05106→7.27318 | +18.34 | take_profit |
| 06-26 07:01 | SOL | Buy | 67.8532→70.0365 | +18.74 | take_profit |
| 06-26 06:46 | XRP | Buy | 1.01275→1.04474 | +18.40 | take_profit |
| 06-26 06:24 | LTC | Buy | 40.2501→41.5306 | +18.55 | take_profit |
| 06-26 06:22 | ADA | Buy | 0.139165→0.143594 | +18.57 | take_profit |
| 06-25 22:46 | ADA | Sell | 0.142584→0.143546 | -4.59 | timeout |
| 06-25 13:59 | ETH | Sell | 1585.54→1535.05 | +18.56 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:48 | BNB | Buy | 563.561→552.585 | -12.23 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:45 | DOGE | Buy | 0.076022→0.074564 | -12.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:45 | LTC | Buy | 41.4384→40.6425 | -12.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:43 | AVAX | Buy | 6.36159→6.23852 | -12.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 12:17 | ADA | Buy | 0.149897→0.14698 | -12.25 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 00:58 | BTC | Buy | 59812→60748 | +8.84 | timeout |
| 06-24 21:55 | ADA | Buy | 0.141895→0.146443 | +18.74 | take_profit |
| 06-24 20:49 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0742804→0.0756977 | -11.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 20:06 | ADA | Sell | 0.140495→0.143237 | -12.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 20:01 | LINK | Sell | 7.15851→7.29747 | -12.20 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 17:22 | AVAX | Buy | 6.13793→6.02098 | -11.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 16:47 | LINK | Buy | 7.48277→7.33959 | -12.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:47 | ETH | Buy | 1647.86→1617.03 | -11.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:44 | SOL | Buy | 68.9143→67.613 | -11.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 15:38 | AVAX | Sell | 6.3789→6.27007 | +9.72 | timeout |
| 06-24 15:33 | XRP | Buy | 1.08497→1.0642 | -12.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 02:22 | ADA | Buy | 0.150398→0.152092 | +6.16 | timeout |
| 06-23 23:40 | AVAX | Buy | 6.34058→6.46498 | +11.23 | timeout |
| 06-23 22:56 | LTC | Sell | 42.6883→42.0135 | +8.91 | timeout |
| 06-23 16:29 | XRP | Buy | 1.09917→1.09713 | -1.65 | timeout |
| 06-23 16:19 | SOL | Buy | 68.5243→69.1136 | +4.73 | timeout |
| 06-23 16:19 | ETH | Buy | 1653.27→1663.43 | +3.14 | timeout |
| 06-23 14:20 | SOL | Sell | 70.1325→69.6094 | +3.82 | timeout |
| 06-23 14:09 | BNB | Sell | 581.635→574.864 | +6.26 | timeout |
| 06-23 08:24 | ETH | Sell | 1694.63→1640.56 | +18.58 | take_profit |
| 06-23 06:21 | AVAX | Buy | 6.22466→6.10422 | -12.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:08 | ADA | Buy | 0.15949→0.156453 | -11.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 19:49 | XRP | Buy | 1.14809→1.12992 | -9.99 | timeout |
| 06-22 19:07 | AVAX | Buy | 6.36479→6.24351 | -11.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 18:04 | ADA | Buy | 0.16042→0.15966 | -3.30 | timeout |
| 06-22 09:24 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0834809→0.0835591 | +0.00 | timeout |
| 06-22 09:24 | SOL | Buy | 74.0691→73.7559 | -3.14 | timeout |
| 06-22 09:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.14339→1.13412 | -5.44 | timeout |
| 06-22 09:24 | ETH | Buy | 1739.37→1745.93 | +1.66 | timeout |
| 06-22 09:24 | BTC | Buy | 64301.2→64107.8 | -2.38 | timeout |
| 06-22 00:52 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0834309→0.0828503 | -4.71 | timeout |
| 06-21 22:18 | ADA | Buy | 0.16147→0.15942 | -8.14 | timeout |
| 06-21 21:09 | XRP | Buy | 1.14639→1.12446 | -12.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 21:09 | AVAX | Sell | 6.33302→6.13303 | +18.39 | take_profit |
| 06-21 21:05 | SOL | Buy | 74.6142→73.2124 | -11.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 11:18 | ADA | Buy | 0.162491→0.16071 | -7.13 | timeout |
| 06-21 06:31 | SOL | Sell | 73.8899→73.205 | +5.03 | timeout |
| 06-20 23:19 | ETH | Buy | 1744.17→1741.53 | -1.50 | timeout |
| 06-20 23:19 | BTC | Buy | 64247.2→64251.8 | -0.50 | timeout |
| 06-20 19:05 | AVAX | Sell | 6.19675→6.08722 | +10.13 | timeout |
| 06-20 17:35 | SOL | Buy | 72.4499→71.0828 | -11.88 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 15:17 | AVAX | Buy | 6.06742→6.10437 | +3.05 | timeout |
| 06-20 08:01 | XRP | Buy | 1.13738→1.14551 | +3.81 | timeout |
| 06-20 08:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.162341→0.162769 | +1.02 | timeout |
| 06-20 01:03 | SOL | Buy | 68.8123→69.6306 | +6.57 | timeout |
| 06-19 21:49 | AVAX | Buy | 5.75334→5.93901 | +18.82 | take_profit |
| 06-19 15:41 | XRP | Buy | 1.12318→1.13492 | +5.75 | timeout |
| 06-19 06:29 | ETH | Sell | 1702.63→1701.07 | +0.00 | timeout |
| 06-19 04:52 | XRP | Buy | 1.14709→1.12516 | -12.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:16 | ADA | Buy | 0.164521→0.161389 | -11.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.31258→6.19275 | -11.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 23:19 | AVAX | Sell | 6.3984→6.27877 | +10.66 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:42 | XRP | Buy | 1.16049→1.13835 | -11.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:40 | ETH | Buy | 1734.67→1702.08 | -11.81 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:40 | BTC | Buy | 63836.2→62649.5 | -11.67 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:32 | SOL | Buy | 71.0187→69.6807 | -11.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 13:40 | ADA | Buy | 0.167132→0.163877 | -12.23 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 12:15 | ETH | Buy | 1736.17→1745.13 | +2.54 | timeout |
| 06-18 06:16 | BTC | Buy | 64123.2→63914.8 | -2.49 | timeout |
| 06-18 05:02 | LTC | Buy | 44.9892→44.1339 | -11.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 04:41 | XRP | Buy | 1.1906→1.16782 | -12.00 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
314
closed
43%
win rate
-295.58
total pnl ($)
-15.6 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 50 | 36% | -46.8 | -140.41 |
| SOL | 41 | 44% | -24.7 | -60.38 |
| ETH | 37 | 46% | +2.6 | +5.51 |
| AVAX | 37 | 54% | +20.3 | +44.78 |
| XRP | 37 | 32% | -45.8 | -101.41 |
| DOGE | 30 | 33% | -53.7 | -97.02 |
| LINK | 29 | 48% | +21.4 | +37.30 |
| LTC | 22 | 68% | +60.3 | +79.42 |
| BTC | 19 | 32% | -20.6 | -23.44 |
| BNB | 12 | 42% | -54.9 | -39.93 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-07 07:04 | ADA | Sell | -7.29 | ADA was declining across all timeframes with negative momentum in both BTC and ETH, indicating a bearish market regime. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the anticipated downward move materialized, resulting in a small l… |
| 05-04 23:53 | ADA | Buy | -2.66 | The market was in a neutral consolidation phase with ADA showing a modest 7-day uptrend but flat funding rates and low volatility. The trade failed because the entry thesis could not be executed within the allotted time window, resulting in a timeout close … |
| 05-04 22:50 | ETH | Buy | -3.69 | The market was in a low-volatility consolidation phase with flat funding rates and minimal momentum across both ETH and BTC. The trade failed because the price failed to break out of its range before the timeout limit was reached, resulting in an exit witho… |
| 05-04 22:50 | BTC | Buy | -0.55 | The market was in a neutral consolidation phase with flat funding rates and low volatility, creating an environment unsuitable for directional bets. The trade failed because the thesis could not generate sufficient momentum before the session timed out, res… |