565
closed trades
40%
win rate
-275.95
total pnl ($)
0.250
weight
7d window — n=103 wr=30% pnl=-255.22
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-16 23:58:37 (36.1d ago) · src: canon
verdict: PASS
· strict: STRICT-PASS
· batch:
f
n: 20
· wr: 60.0%
· total_bps: +398.4
· mean_bps: +19.92
· sharpe: +0.21
· max_dd_bps: -378.9
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 01:26 | OP | Buy | 0.100235→0.101895 | +7.80 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:23 | ARB | Buy | 0.0819805→0.083789 | +10.59 | take_profit |
| 06-21 23:36 | INJ | Buy | 4.87962→4.81019 | -7.55 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 23:02 | SUI | Buy | 0.702516→0.692161 | -7.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 22:39 | NEAR | Buy | 2.12283→2.09313 | -7.45 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 20:52 | LINK | Buy | 7.96189→7.87533 | -5.91 | timeout |
| 06-21 20:52 | ADA | Buy | 0.16164→0.16047 | -4.07 | timeout |
| 06-21 20:52 | SUI | Buy | 0.710378→0.705694 | -3.76 | timeout |
| 06-21 20:48 | SOL | Buy | 74.5352→73.5042 | -7.39 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 20:47 | AVAX | Buy | 6.27597→6.18506 | -7.68 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 15:48 | APT | Buy | 0.653063→0.656436 | +2.11 | timeout |
| 06-21 12:43 | ATOM | Buy | 1.77654→1.77386 | -1.20 | timeout |
| 06-21 05:45 | INJ | Buy | 5.08797→5.01404 | -7.70 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 04:53 | ADA | Buy | 0.163101→0.160819 | -7.44 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 04:40 | ATOM | Buy | 1.79745→1.78305 | -4.43 | timeout |
| 06-20 23:33 | ATOM | Buy | 1.79625→1.80145 | +0.97 | timeout |
| 06-20 19:22 | SOL | Sell | 72.1812→71.7128 | +2.82 | timeout |
| 06-20 18:55 | NEAR | Buy | 2.15314→2.13637 | -4.31 | timeout |
| 06-20 14:02 | OP | Buy | 0.101375→0.099945 | -7.45 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 13:23 | ATOM | Buy | 1.79635→1.76857 | -8.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 13:22 | NEAR | Sell | 2.14406→2.14164 | +0.09 | timeout |
| 06-20 09:11 | DOGE | Buy | 0.084008→0.083967 | -0.69 | timeout |
| 06-20 09:11 | XRP | Buy | 1.15109→1.14661 | -2.39 | timeout |
| 06-20 09:11 | SOL | Buy | 71.9138→71.3593 | -4.33 | timeout |
| 06-20 09:10 | ETH | Buy | 1725.27→1725.63 | -0.37 | timeout |
| 06-20 09:10 | BTC | Buy | 63797.2→63453.8 | -3.16 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:00 | ADA | Buy | 0.162321→0.162379 | -0.27 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:00 | AVAX | Buy | 5.91158→5.94371 | +2.30 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:00 | SUI | Buy | 0.716119→0.709872 | -4.81 | timeout |
| 06-20 02:22 | ARB | Buy | 0.083991→0.0827979 | -7.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 01:25 | INJ | Buy | 5.15109→5.07779 | -7.54 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 23:24 | APT | Sell | 0.626243→0.629557 | -3.07 | timeout |
| 06-19 18:44 | AVAX | Buy | 5.82606→5.74219 | -7.65 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 17:04 | ATOM | Buy | 1.82166→1.80955 | -3.71 | timeout |
| 06-19 08:33 | BNB | Sell | 573.906→574.314 | -0.79 | timeout |
| 06-19 08:33 | ADA | Sell | 0.16036→0.16047 | -0.83 | timeout |
| 06-19 07:37 | APT | Buy | 0.624256→0.614839 | -7.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 06:24 | ATOM | Buy | 1.81165→1.82764 | +4.00 | timeout |
| 06-19 04:30 | AVAX | Buy | 6.16264→6.07544 | -7.51 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:15 | NEAR | Buy | 2.17014→2.1373 | -8.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:12 | OP | Sell | 0.106833→0.104496 | +10.50 | take_profit |
| 06-18 23:54 | INJ | Buy | 5.29542→5.40985 | +10.35 | take_profit |
| 06-18 23:43 | ATOM | Buy | 1.78465→1.80815 | +6.16 | timeout |
| 06-18 23:14 | NEAR | Buy | 2.21425→2.18206 | -7.72 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 21:30 | SUI | Buy | 0.716789→0.721959 | +3.15 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:53 | INJ | Buy | 5.13718→5.0589 | -8.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:36 | ARB | Buy | 0.0845511→0.0833574 | -7.49 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:26 | LINK | Buy | 8.02731→7.91406 | -7.49 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:18 | NEAR | Buy | 2.27877→2.24651 | -7.53 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:12 | AVAX | Buy | 6.62196→6.5293 | -7.43 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 11:42 | ADA | Buy | 0.167082→0.164706 | -7.57 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 11:22 | NEAR | Buy | 2.22846→2.19675 | -7.57 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 10:06 | ATOM | Buy | 1.85956→1.83342 | -7.48 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 05:08 | SUI | Buy | 0.748827→0.738146 | -7.58 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 05:03 | ADA | Buy | 0.166822→0.164447 | -7.55 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 05:02 | APT | Buy | 0.647062→0.637921 | -7.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 23:36 | ETH | Buy | 1742.27→1748.03 | +1.20 | timeout |
| 06-17 23:35 | BTC | Buy | 64458.2→64412.8 | -0.81 | timeout |
| 06-17 22:03 | XRP | Buy | 1.1869→1.17012 | -7.51 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 22:03 | SOL | Buy | 72.1028→71.1048 | -7.37 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 21:46 | APT | Buy | 0.671368→0.661903 | -7.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:42 | ATOM | Buy | 1.95929→1.92955 | -8.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 17:59 | INJ | Buy | 5.49477→5.6147 | +10.46 | take_profit |
| 06-17 16:40 | ATOM | Buy | 1.96989→1.9955 | +6.08 | timeout |
| 06-17 16:16 | ADA | Buy | 0.167902→0.171597 | +10.54 | take_profit |
| 06-17 15:48 | ETH | Sell | 1747.43→1771.46 | -7.32 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 15:15 | SOL | Sell | 71.8332→72.8393 | -7.45 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 14:47 | INJ | Buy | 5.41325→5.3288 | -8.25 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 07:39 | ATOM | Buy | 1.9972→1.9823 | -4.09 | timeout |
| 06-17 07:23 | NEAR | Buy | 2.32048→2.28728 | -7.61 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 07:02 | ADA | Buy | 0.173333→0.170882 | -7.54 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 06:36 | NEAR | Sell | 2.34571→2.31968 | +5.11 | timeout |
| 06-17 06:25 | ARB | Sell | 0.0894776→0.0883121 | +6.09 | timeout |
| 06-17 03:25 | OP | Sell | 0.111862→0.109447 | +10.35 | take_profit |
| 06-16 22:14 | INJ | Buy | 5.65511→5.57102 | -7.88 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 19:24 | ETH | Buy | 1777.68→1796.92 | +4.94 | timeout |
| 06-16 18:28 | ADA | Buy | 0.174334→0.174766 | +0.82 | timeout |
| 06-16 18:26 | ATOM | Buy | 1.96789→1.9953 | +6.52 | timeout |
| 06-16 18:02 | NEAR | Sell | 2.32332→2.35617 | -7.55 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 14:31 | APT | Buy | 0.666066→0.656407 | -7.70 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 14:18 | ARB | Buy | 0.0861715→0.0849662 | -7.44 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 13:30 | ATOM | Buy | 2.0025→1.9902 | -3.48 | timeout |
| 06-16 13:10 | OP | Buy | 0.109127→0.107499 | -7.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 13:10 | APT | Buy | 0.684171→0.674194 | -7.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 10:51 | INJ | Buy | 5.93138→6.06048 | +10.45 | take_profit |
| 06-16 10:10 | OP | Buy | 0.106997→0.107803 | +3.33 | timeout |
| 06-16 08:52 | NEAR | Sell | 2.45968→2.49547 | -7.73 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 07:50 | APT | Buy | 0.674469→0.682329 | +5.35 | timeout |
| 06-16 05:15 | ATOM | Buy | 1.94959→1.95111 | -0.02 | timeout |
| 06-16 02:27 | APT | Buy | 0.673068→0.663602 | -7.46 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:10 | NEAR | Buy | 2.42241→2.38821 | -7.51 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 00:14 | INJ | Sell | 5.53782→5.61581 | -7.48 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:31 | NEAR | Sell | 2.47868→2.42461 | +10.47 | take_profit |
| 06-15 22:27 | ADA | Buy | 0.180375→0.177817 | -7.54 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:26 | OP | Buy | 0.109537→0.107949 | -7.69 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 20:13 | XRP | Buy | 1.27032→1.27328 | +0.71 | timeout |
| 06-15 17:32 | AVAX | Buy | 6.98315→6.98245 | -0.52 | timeout |
| 06-15 17:31 | OP | Buy | 0.111498→0.110672 | -4.13 | timeout |
| 06-15 17:17 | APT | Buy | 0.704276→0.701125 | -2.71 | timeout |
| 06-15 16:54 | ADA | Buy | 0.188057→0.188333 | +0.26 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
565
closed
40%
win rate
-275.95
total pnl ($)
-9.8 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEAR | 83 | 39% | -14.8 | -61.49 |
| ATOM | 72 | 43% | -3.8 | -13.06 |
| INJ | 71 | 44% | +3.4 | +12.45 |
| APT | 53 | 36% | -20.5 | -54.58 |
| ARB | 47 | 36% | -29.5 | -69.18 |
| OP | 47 | 34% | -29.4 | -68.73 |
| ADA | 42 | 31% | -47.5 | -100.03 |
| SUI | 26 | 38% | -20.2 | -26.32 |
| SOL | 24 | 50% | +31.9 | +38.51 |
| AVAX | 19 | 42% | -7.6 | -7.31 |
| ETH | 19 | 63% | +45.0 | +42.66 |
| DOGE | 17 | 47% | +23.5 | +19.97 |
| XRP | 15 | 33% | -11.4 | -8.61 |
| LINK | 14 | 57% | +33.7 | +23.61 |
| LTC | 6 | 50% | +7.8 | +2.38 |
| BTC | 6 | 33% | +0.1 | -0.00 |
| BNB | 4 | 25% | -30.7 | -6.21 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 5)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 23:33 | ARB | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-21 22:36 | NEAR | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-21 22:19 | INJ | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-21 22:19 | SUI | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-21 21:42 | OP | Buy | stale_intent |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-07 03:05 | ADA | Sell | +0.01 | The market was in a low-volatility, sideways grind with elevated funding, suggesting a crowded short bias. The thesis failed because the timeout closed the trade before any directional move materialized, capturing only negligible pnl from minor price fluctu… |
| 05-04 19:54 | ADA | Buy | +0.11 | The market was in a neutral consolidation phase with flat funding rates and mixed short-term momentum across major assets. The trade closed due to a timeout, resulting in a negligible profit that did not validate or invalidate the initial thesis. |
| 04-20 07:21 | ADA | Buy | +2.65 | At close, ADA was trading at $0.2487 with minimal intraday volatility (-0.24% in 1h), while Bitcoin and Ethereum showed slight weakness, and ADA's perpetual funding rate remained neutral at 0.01%. The trade's thesis worked because the perp-spot basis had co… |