orderbook_top_trader_z15_contrarian · strategy

208

closed trades

34%

win rate

-298.77

total pnl ($)

0.853

weight

7d window — n=47 wr=34% pnl=-61.69 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-20 00:59:02 (39.1d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: alx

n: 110 · wr: 39.1% · total_bps: -1783.1 · mean_bps: -16.21 · sharpe: -0.08 · max_dd_bps: -4018.2

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)

Last 100 trades

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-27 22:15	DOT	Buy	0.835999→0.815108	-12.94	stop_loss
06-27 16:06	BNB	Buy	562.601→564.829	+1.42	timeout
06-27 11:25	INJ	Sell	5.03534→4.8156	+21.34	take_profit
06-27 04:04	TRX	Buy	0.322761→0.32038	-4.14	timeout
06-26 13:57	HYPE	Sell	62.2004→63.7588	-12.98	stop_loss
06-26 12:43	NEAR	Buy	1.82046→1.77327	-13.44	stop_loss
06-26 10:40	ATOM	Buy	1.63851→1.5967	-13.25	stop_loss
06-26 08:02	TRX	Buy	0.325661→0.322289	-5.63	timeout
06-26 02:13	XRP	Buy	1.04376→1.01764	-12.96	stop_loss
06-26 02:09	DOT	Buy	0.843271→0.822163	-12.97	stop_loss
06-26 01:30	APT	Buy	0.596649→0.581364	-13.17	stop_loss
06-25 23:27	SOL	Sell	66.2991→67.9451	-12.86	stop_loss
06-25 22:03	OP	Sell	0.103364→0.105959	-12.97	stop_loss
06-25 17:59	HYPE	Sell	61.7476→63.2974	-13.00	stop_loss
06-25 13:58	NEAR	Sell	1.90572→1.82266	+21.34	take_profit
06-25 13:53	UNI	Sell	2.92247→2.7937	+21.58	take_profit
06-25 13:51	HBAR	Buy	0.0734404→0.0715543	-13.29	stop_loss
06-25 13:43	SUI	Buy	0.699865→0.682228	-13.04	stop_loss
06-25 11:11	INJ	Buy	4.26527→4.15768	-13.07	stop_loss
06-25 05:24	BTC	Sell	60276→61761	-12.78	stop_loss
06-25 05:09	SOL	Sell	67.3779→69.0539	-12.92	stop_loss
06-25 05:07	SUI	Sell	0.674041→0.691218	-13.30	stop_loss
06-25 04:57	ETH	Sell	1594.74→1634.28	-12.83	stop_loss
06-24 17:48	INJ	Sell	4.31542→4.12713	+21.35	take_profit
06-24 17:20	FIL	Sell	0.739505→0.707297	+21.33	take_profit
06-24 16:51	SOL	Sell	69.8575→66.776	+21.63	take_profit
06-24 15:33	BNB	Sell	591.192→565.371	+21.32	take_profit
06-24 15:31	DOGE	Sell	0.0797471→0.0762661	+21.25	take_profit
06-24 13:57	BTC	Sell	64041.8→61230.1	+21.49	take_profit
06-24 10:15	ADA	Sell	0.152882→0.146207	+21.17	take_profit
06-23 08:17	ETH	Sell	1723.93→1647.36	+21.69	take_profit
06-23 06:21	LINK	Buy	7.86417→7.66395	-13.26	stop_loss
06-23 04:09	DOT	Sell	0.967438→0.937304	+15.12	timeout
06-23 00:51	XMR	Sell	319.36→327.355	-12.97	stop_loss
06-22 22:36	NEAR	Buy	2.13543→2.08204	-13.07	stop_loss
06-22 22:28	SOL	Buy	73.215→71.3966	-12.64	stop_loss
06-22 22:28	ETH	Buy	1766.38→1722.77	-12.79	stop_loss
06-22 11:35	SUI	Buy	0.699895→0.730337	+21.25	take_profit
06-22 01:26	APT	Sell	0.657836→0.674305	-12.92	stop_loss
06-22 01:26	UNI	Sell	3.00195→3.07751	-13.03	stop_loss
06-22 00:37	AAVE	Sell	73.9635→75.8168	-12.98	stop_loss
06-21 20:50	NEAR	Sell	2.23394→2.13593	+21.46	take_profit
06-21 16:05	XLM	Buy	0.212323→0.215366	+6.72	timeout
06-21 16:04	ADA	Sell	0.162169→0.162181	-0.26	timeout
06-21 10:24	FIL	Sell	0.783394→0.803412	-13.23	stop_loss
06-21 10:17	LTC	Sell	44.085→45.1889	-13.11	stop_loss
06-21 08:09	ARB	Sell	0.0833592→0.0835509	-1.38	timeout
06-20 04:05	XRP	Sell	1.14221→1.13908	+0.83	timeout
06-20 04:04	ETH	Sell	1686.83→1707.57	-6.54	timeout
06-20 04:04	SOL	Sell	68.6947→69.9375	-9.36	timeout
06-20 04:04	BTC	Sell	62479.9→63402.2	-7.86	timeout
06-19 20:05	BNB	Sell	588.853→579.725	+6.97	timeout
06-18 15:53	LINK	Buy	7.9984→7.79715	-12.96	stop_loss
06-18 15:40	DOT	Sell	0.99777→0.954038	+21.46	take_profit
06-18 15:38	ADA	Buy	0.165351→0.161209	-12.96	stop_loss
06-18 15:18	AVAX	Sell	6.73532→6.43901	+21.48	take_profit
06-18 05:02	SUI	Sell	0.775606→0.741835	+21.34	take_profit
06-18 04:11	BNB	Buy	606.031→590.767	-13.04	stop_loss
06-18 03:57	DOT	Sell	1.02624→0.981485	+21.36	take_profit
06-17 19:42	NEAR	Buy	2.29457→2.23722	-12.99	stop_loss
06-17 19:39	ICP	Buy	2.4122→2.35024	-13.29	stop_loss
06-17 16:28	BTC	Sell	64840.8→66437.5	-12.77	stop_loss
06-17 08:49	DOGE	Buy	0.088→0.0857616	-13.28	stop_loss
06-17 08:07	BTC	Buy	66537.3→65407.7	-8.87	timeout
06-17 01:49	SUI	Sell	0.794381→0.814711	-13.09	stop_loss
06-17 01:46	DOT	Sell	1.00115→1.02637	-13.05	stop_loss
06-17 01:46	UNI	Buy	3.32053→3.46513	+21.32	take_profit
06-16 21:16	BCH	Sell	217.706→223.227	-13.13	stop_loss
06-16 14:23	DOGE	Buy	0.0887222→0.0864951	-12.96	stop_loss
06-16 08:45	AVAX	Sell	6.82509→6.99684	-13.04	stop_loss
06-16 08:14	ONDO	Sell	0.370267→0.379565	-13.00	stop_loss
06-16 02:18	SOL	Buy	75.1293→73.2644	-12.85	stop_loss
06-15 22:24	ETH	Buy	1840.68→1795.12	-12.85	stop_loss
06-15 20:52	ADA	Buy	0.184806→0.180145	-13.03	stop_loss
06-15 18:52	APT	Buy	0.712178→0.69358	-13.52	stop_loss
06-15 15:52	AAVE	Buy	73.9325→77.1507	+21.31	take_profit
06-15 13:16	ETH	Buy	1728.27→1804.42	+21.55	take_profit
06-15 12:42	DOGE	Buy	0.0863636→0.0901275	+21.21	take_profit
06-15 11:20	AVAX	Sell	6.75471→6.92439	-12.97	stop_loss
06-15 10:54	LINK	Buy	7.95789→8.31222	+21.68	take_profit
06-15 05:27	APT	Sell	0.670632→0.687615	-12.90	stop_loss
06-15 04:08	BTC	Buy	64032.2→65734.7	+12.80	timeout
06-14 20:10	SUI	Buy	0.762931→0.748643	-9.80	timeout
06-14 12:28	ADA	Buy	0.173443→0.169103	-12.73	stop_loss
06-14 04:02	KAS	Buy	0.0312308→0.0314791	+3.53	timeout
06-13 20:08	BNB	Sell	602.349→607.722	-4.94	timeout
06-13 12:56	XRP	Sell	1.12582→1.15407	-12.86	stop_loss
06-13 06:49	DOT	Sell	0.951562→0.975771	-13.17	stop_loss
06-13 06:47	AAVE	Sell	64.1899→65.8063	-13.04	stop_loss
06-12 22:25	SAGA	Sell	0.0126168→0.0129397	-13.24	stop_loss
06-12 16:08	BTC	Buy	62598.1→63724.8	+8.40	timeout
06-12 14:55	SOL	Buy	65.0948→67.9398	+21.21	take_profit
06-12 14:20	DOGE	Buy	0.0848382→0.0885359	+21.17	take_profit
06-12 11:12	BLUR	Buy	0.0177244→0.0184954	+21.30	take_profit
06-12 04:26	ADA	Buy	0.165401→0.172607	+21.18	take_profit
06-11 10:55	BTC	Sell	61673.9→63201.7	-12.67	stop_loss
06-11 04:05	ETH	Sell	1631.04→1652.47	-6.81	timeout
06-11 03:55	SUI	Sell	0.733037→0.751583	-13.05	stop_loss
06-11 03:55	LINK	Sell	7.57221→7.76642	-13.29	stop_loss
06-11 01:42	SOL	Sell	63.4605→65.0423	-12.89	stop_loss

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)

208

closed

34%

win rate

-298.77

total pnl ($)

-28.8 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
SOL	15	33%	-59.9	-44.29
BTC	15	40%	-10.1	-7.03
ADA	12	42%	+24.3	+14.43
LINK	12	33%	-27.0	-17.07
SUI	12	33%	-27.6	-16.47
XRP	10	30%	-94.7	-46.84
DOGE	10	50%	+98.2	+49.20
ETH	10	40%	+9.9	+5.32
DOT	9	33%	-17.3	-7.78
AVAX	8	38%	-34.0	-13.80
NEAR	7	57%	+132.7	+46.21
APT	6	17%	-148.7	-44.33
LTC	6	0%	-235.9	-70.83
UNI	6	33%	-7.5	-2.25
BNB	6	50%	-2.4	-1.25
FIL	5	40%	-60.3	-15.07
ATOM	4	25%	-95.4	-19.15
INJ	4	50%	+83.3	+16.61
TRX	4	25%	-38.7	-7.74
ONDO	4	50%	+83.7	+16.75
HYPE	4	25%	-88.2	-17.63
AAVE	4	25%	-88.6	-17.71
ARB	3	0%	-184.2	-27.16
OP	3	0%	-263.2	-39.43
ICP	3	67%	+195.8	+29.38
KAS	3	67%	+79.7	+11.95
ETC	2	0%	-279.7	-27.97
ACE	2	0%	-292.5	-29.25
RENDER	2	50%	+85.6	+8.56
BCH	2	50%	+83.6	+8.36
ZEREBRO	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40
BLUR	2	50%	+78.1	+7.81
CHILLGUY	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40
XMR	2	0%	-261.5	-26.15
SAGA	2	50%	+97.3	+9.73
GOAT	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40
HBAR	2	0%	-264.1	-26.41
XLM	1	100%	+134.3	+6.72

Recent bounces (last 20 of 1)

time	sym	side	reason
06-28 00:11	XRP	Sell	circuit_breaker

Postmortem feed (last 10)

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
no postmortems

More…