43
closed trades
44%
win rate
-14.57
total pnl ($)
1.224
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-16 22:35:51 (41.6d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
acw
n: 204
· wr: 44.1%
· total_bps: -698.8
· mean_bps: -3.43
· sharpe: -0.04
· max_dd_bps: -2056.8
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 43 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 14:09 | BTC | Buy | 64342.2→63845.8 | -4.31 | timeout |
| 06-18 05:07 | BTC | Buy | 64595.2→63706.8 | -7.33 | timeout |
| 06-17 17:33 | BTC | Buy | 64739.2→65928.7 | +8.72 | timeout |
| 06-17 09:26 | BTC | Buy | 65848.3→65041.7 | -6.58 | timeout |
| 06-17 01:28 | BTC | Buy | 65690.3→65546.7 | -1.55 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:33 | BTC | Buy | 66542.3→65305.1 | -9.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 09:19 | BTC | Buy | 66100.3→66611.7 | +3.42 | timeout |
| 06-16 01:13 | BTC | Buy | 66541.3→66254.7 | -2.60 | timeout |
| 06-15 17:11 | BTC | Buy | 66259.3→66783.7 | +3.49 | timeout |
| 06-15 09:10 | BTC | Buy | 65727.3→65683.7 | -0.78 | timeout |
| 06-15 00:14 | BTC | Buy | 63783.2→65818.7 | +15.51 | take_profit |
| 06-14 17:05 | BTC | Buy | 64529.2→63977.8 | -4.74 | timeout |
| 06-14 09:02 | BTC | Buy | 64517.2→64393.8 | -1.42 | timeout |
| 06-14 00:57 | BTC | Buy | 64308.2→64512.8 | +1.15 | timeout |
| 06-13 16:55 | BTC | Buy | 63886.2→63978.8 | +0.27 | timeout |
| 06-13 08:55 | BTC | Buy | 63535.2→63778.8 | +1.45 | timeout |
| 06-13 01:01 | BTC | Buy | 63568.2→63597.8 | -0.24 | timeout |
| 06-12 16:54 | BTC | Buy | 63806.2→63911.8 | +0.37 | timeout |
| 06-12 08:47 | BTC | Buy | 63474.2→63398.8 | -1.06 | timeout |
| 06-12 00:48 | BTC | Buy | 63671.2→63661.8 | -0.55 | timeout |
| 05-30 17:03 | BTC | Buy | 73571.7→73900.3 | +1.76 | timeout |
| 05-26 14:36 | BTC | Buy | 76664.8→77457.1 | +4.71 | timeout |
| 05-26 06:36 | BTC | Buy | 76669.8→76831.2 | +0.60 | timeout |
| 05-25 22:35 | BTC | Buy | 77552.9→77065.1 | -3.61 | timeout |
| 05-25 14:35 | BTC | Buy | 77605.9→77535.1 | -0.93 | timeout |
| 05-25 06:34 | BTC | Buy | 77134.9→77290.1 | +0.53 | timeout |
| 05-24 22:34 | BTC | Buy | 76583.8→76806.2 | +1.00 | timeout |
| 05-24 14:34 | BTC | Buy | 76892.8→76455.2 | -3.30 | timeout |
| 05-24 06:33 | BTC | Buy | 76885.8→76704.2 | -1.65 | timeout |
| 05-23 22:33 | BTC | Buy | 75443.8→76542.2 | +6.82 | timeout |
| 05-23 14:33 | BTC | Buy | 74660.7→75313.2 | +3.92 | timeout |
| 05-23 06:32 | BTC | Buy | 75454.8→75441.2 | -0.54 | timeout |
| 05-22 22:32 | BTC | Buy | 76912.8→75825.2 | -7.53 | timeout |
| 05-22 14:31 | BTC | Buy | 77200.9→76816.2 | -2.96 | timeout |
| 05-22 06:31 | BTC | Buy | 77473.9→77394.1 | -0.97 | timeout |
| 05-21 22:31 | BTC | Buy | 77967.9→77679.1 | -2.32 | timeout |
| 05-21 14:31 | BTC | Buy | 77873.9→77099.1 | -5.44 | timeout |
| 05-21 06:30 | BTC | Buy | 77829.9→77773.1 | -0.83 | timeout |
| 05-20 22:31 | BTC | Buy | 77552.9→77462.1 | -1.04 | timeout |
| 05-02 02:33 | BTC | Buy | 78089.9→78240.1 | +0.54 | timeout |
| 05-01 18:32 | BTC | Buy | 78265.9→78462.1 | +0.81 | timeout |
| 05-01 10:31 | BTC | Buy | 77044.9→77323.1 | +1.34 | timeout |
| 05-01 02:31 | BTC | Buy | 76307.8→76531.2 | +1.06 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
43
closed
44%
win rate
-14.57
total pnl ($)
-6.6 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
5
closed
0%
win rate
-2.16
total pnl ($)
-38.9 bps
avg bps net
Live WR is 0% of paper WR (0% vs 44%)
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 43 | 44% | -6.6 | -14.57 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-02 02:33 | BTC | Buy | +0.54 | When the trade closed, Bitcoin was trading near $78,293 with minimal intraday momentum (-0.07% over 1h) but modest upside bias over 24h (+2.22%), while funding rates had turned slightly negative (-0.008%) suggesting reduced leverage appetite. The thesis fai… |
| 05-01 18:32 | BTC | Buy | +0.81 | BTC was grinding sideways to slightly higher in the final hour ($78,486, +0.07% 1h), with modest positive momentum over 24h (+2.91%) but weak weekly performance (+1.03%), while funding rates remained slightly negative at -0.002362%. The trade's thesis didn'… |
| 05-01 10:31 | BTC | Buy | +1.34 | Bitcoin was consolidating near $77,300 with minimal intraday momentum (1h +0.01%) while maintaining modest weekly gains, suggesting a temporary equilibrium in the $77k range. The trade's thesis partially worked—the 36.4 bps gross return captured the compres… |
| 05-01 02:31 | BTC | Buy | +1.06 | BTC was consolidating near $76.5K with minimal intraday momentum (1h flat) despite a modest 24h gain, while funding rates turned slightly negative and open interest remained elevated at $3.9B. The trade's thesis partially worked—DVOL compression (40.6% 7d v… |