mstr_premium_deep_discount_nav_bargain_long

not live
14
closed trades
14%
win rate
-91.37
total pnl ($)
1.212
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-18 19:41:03 (39.2d ago) · src: canon
verdict: PASS  ·  strict: STRICT-PASS  ·  batch: abj__restored_cfbb2527
n: 11  ·  wr: 63.6%  ·  total_bps: +420.8  ·  mean_bps: +38.25  ·  sharpe: +0.43  ·  max_dd_bps: -172.2
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 14 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-18 15:40BTCBuy63862.2→62674.5-12.15stop_loss
06-09 20:57BTCBuy61015.1→62016.9+9.72timeout
06-05 18:44BTCBuy60821→59690.2-12.20stop_loss
06-04 10:30BTCBuy63552.2→62365.7-12.21stop_loss
06-04 08:33BTCBuy64364.2→63417.8-9.76timeout
06-03 23:54BTCBuy65306.3→64090.7-12.19stop_loss
06-03 23:51BTCBuy65363.3→64144.7-12.21stop_loss
06-03 16:21BTCBuy67034.4→65786.8-12.20stop_loss
05-24 01:46BTCBuy76833.8→76786.2-0.96timeout
05-22 19:23BTCBuy76805.8→76347.2-4.31timeout
05-19 05:21BTCBuy77322.9→76709.2-5.54timeout
05-18 23:37BTCBuy76377.8→76982.2+4.37timeout
05-18 18:36BTCBuy77025.9→76378.2-5.84timeout
04-30 06:47BTCBuy76333→75685-5.87timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
14
closed
14%
win rate
-91.37
total pnl ($)
-104.4 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC1414%-104.4-91.37

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
04-30 06:47BTCBUY-5.87Bitcoin was consolidating near $75,700 with minimal intraday momentum (1h: +0.05%) but persistent weakness over 24h (-1.63%) and 7d (-2.99%), trapping the long position in a range-bound environment. The MSTR NAV discount arbitrage thesis failed because BTC'…