mstr_premium_compression_fade

not live
21
closed trades
33%
win rate
-18.22
total pnl ($)
1.075
weight
7d window — n=2 wr=0% pnl=-3.40  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-18 14:37:05 (34.8d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: afc
n: 20  ·  wr: 35.0%  ·  total_bps: -295.0  ·  mean_bps: -14.75  ·  sharpe: -0.45  ·  max_dd_bps: -307.7
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 21 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-18 15:17BTCBuy64036.2→63286.2-2.65stop_loss
06-17 22:02BTCBuy64287.2→64115.8-0.75timeout
06-09 17:27BTCBuy61403.1→61711.9+0.87timeout
06-05 18:26BTCBuy60935→60227.9-2.63stop_loss
06-05 13:51BTCBuy61832.1→61114.4-2.63stop_loss
06-03 19:39BTCBuy66170.3→65758.7-1.50timeout
06-03 15:19BTCBuy67122.4→66343.5-2.63stop_loss
05-23 22:46BTCBuy76833.8→76503.2-1.09timeout
05-22 16:23BTCBuy76805.8→76876.2-0.00timeout
05-19 09:37BTCBuy77140.9→76788.2-1.15timeout
05-19 06:37BTCBuy76849.8→76963.2+0.12timeout
05-19 03:36BTCBuy76860.8→76761.2-0.47timeout
05-19 00:36BTCBuy77121.9→77210.1+0.05timeout
05-18 21:36BTCBuy76742.8→77023.1+0.57timeout
05-18 18:35BTCBuy76384.8→76388.2-0.18timeout
05-18 15:02BTCBuy77025.9→76127.1-2.64stop_loss
05-15 17:25BTCBuy79128→79306+0.28timeout
05-12 06:05BTCBuy81945.1→81715.9-1.10timeout
05-12 00:22BTCSell81802.9→81724.1+0.01timeout
05-11 21:23BTCSell81802.9→81656.1+0.19timeout
05-09 02:05BTCSell80103→80375-0.90timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
21
closed
33%
win rate
-18.22
total pnl ($)
-40.5 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC2133%-40.5-18.22

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-09 02:05BTCSell-0.90BTC was in a mild downtrend across timeframes with low funding, indicating bearish but subdued momentum. The short thesis failed because the trade expired via timeout without reaching target, as the market lacked the volatility to push price lower within th…