mstr_premium_compression_dominance_regime_long · strategy

closed trades

41%

win rate

-99.44

total pnl ($)

0.992

weight

7d window — n=18 wr=28% pnl=-37.76 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Cumulative P&L (last 80 closed)

Last 100 trades

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-26 11:58	BTC	Buy	59902→59392	-4.72	timeout
06-26 01:37	BTC	Buy	59630→59234	-3.77	timeout
06-25 13:40	BTC	Buy	61648.1→60501.7	-9.74	stop_loss
06-25 06:03	BTC	Buy	61071.1→61619.9	+4.05	timeout
06-24 13:43	BTC	Buy	62626.1→61452.2	-9.82	stop_loss
06-24 08:16	BTC	Buy	62861.1→62624.9	-2.35	timeout
06-24 00:14	BTC	Buy	62769.1→62815.9	-0.08	timeout
06-23 06:21	BTC	Buy	63897.2→62707.5	-9.77	stop_loss
06-22 22:44	BTC	Buy	64997.2→63788.9	-9.75	stop_loss
06-22 14:59	BTC	Buy	64007.2→64948.8	+6.87	timeout
06-22 06:53	BTC	Buy	63745.2→63928.8	+0.99	timeout
06-21 22:54	BTC	Buy	64052.2→63746.8	-2.83	timeout
06-21 14:48	BTC	Buy	64286.2→63991.8	-2.72	timeout
06-21 06:45	BTC	Buy	64238.2→64283.8	-0.10	timeout
06-20 22:41	BTC	Buy	63401.2→64224.8	+6.04	timeout
06-20 14:39	BTC	Buy	63709.2→63379.8	-3.06	timeout
06-20 06:36	BTC	Buy	63239.2→63702.8	+3.21	timeout
06-19 22:33	BTC	Buy	63203.2→63233.8	-0.22	timeout
06-19 14:29	BTC	Buy	62805.1→63259.8	+3.20	timeout
06-19 06:56	BTC	Buy	62846.1→62835.9	-0.52	timeout
06-18 15:52	BTC	Buy	63685.2→62498.6	-9.77	stop_loss
06-18 14:53	BTC	Buy	64046.2→63581.8	-4.07	timeout
06-18 06:47	BTC	Buy	64366.2→64059.8	-2.83	timeout
06-17 22:03	BTC	Buy	65151.3→63929.8	-9.82	stop_loss
06-17 14:40	BTC	Buy	65604.3→65054.7	-4.64	timeout
06-17 06:36	BTC	Buy	65704.3→65657.7	-0.81	timeout
06-16 22:33	BTC	Buy	65365.3→65679.7	+1.92	timeout
06-12 15:23	BTC	Buy	62975.1→64192.8	+9.19	timeout
06-12 13:25	BTC	Buy	63455.2→63364.8	-1.19	timeout
06-12 05:19	BTC	Buy	63499.2→63492.8	-0.52	timeout
06-11 21:18	BTC	Buy	62923.1→63489.8	+4.00	timeout
06-11 13:10	BTC	Buy	62602.1→62862.9	+1.60	timeout
06-11 05:01	BTC	Buy	61765.1→62567.9	+6.00	timeout
06-01 00:56	BTC	Buy	73501.7→73895.3	+2.23	timeout
05-31 14:05	BTC	Buy	73970.7→73765.3	-1.85	timeout
05-31 13:34	BTC	Buy	74123.7→73925.3	-1.78	timeout
05-31 07:45	BTC	Buy	73780.7→73839.3	-0.10	timeout
05-30 17:42	BTC	Buy	73529.7→73903.3	+2.05	timeout
05-30 13:44	BTC	Buy	73543.7→73710.3	+0.66	timeout
05-29 23:17	BTC	Buy	73594.7→73410.3	-1.68	timeout
05-29 16:46	BTC	Buy	73748.7→74021.3	+1.37	timeout
05-29 05:46	BTC	Buy	73823.7→73387.3	-3.45	timeout
05-28 20:35	BTC	Buy	73448.7→73610.3	+0.60	timeout
05-28 19:06	BTC	Buy	73400.7→73551.3	+0.53	timeout
05-28 04:02	BTC	Buy	74320.7→72937.9	-9.76	stop_loss
05-27 23:31	BTC	Buy	75450.8→74281.3	-8.22	timeout
05-27 15:30	BTC	Buy	75847.8→75338.2	-3.80	timeout
05-27 07:29	BTC	Buy	75868.8→75815.2	-0.76	timeout
05-26 23:30	BTC	Buy	76585.8→75869.2	-5.14	timeout
05-26 18:58	BTC	Buy	77157.9→75722.3	-9.77	stop_loss
05-26 17:26	BTC	Buy	77399.9→75964.2	-9.74	stop_loss
05-26 13:53	BTC	Buy	76817.8→77210.1	+2.10	timeout
05-26 05:52	BTC	Buy	77275.9→76823.2	-3.38	timeout
05-26 03:14	BTC	Buy	77459.9→76522.2	-6.50	timeout
05-25 19:15	BTC	Buy	77411.9→77452.1	-0.24	timeout
05-25 16:24	BTC	Buy	77280.9→77562.1	+1.32	timeout
05-25 08:22	BTC	Buy	77112.9→77305.1	+0.75	timeout
05-25 00:23	BTC	Buy	76610.8→77105.1	+2.76	timeout
05-24 15:06	BTC	Buy	76915.8→76435.2	-3.58	timeout
05-24 07:06	BTC	Buy	76705.8→76909.2	+0.84	timeout
05-23 23:06	BTC	Buy	75508.8→76699.2	+7.41	timeout
05-23 05:33	BTC	Buy	76044.8→75461.2	-4.28	timeout
05-22 19:30	BTC	Buy	77100.9→75665.4	-9.77	stop_loss
05-22 06:15	BTC	Buy	77598.9→77423.1	-1.59	timeout
05-21 22:15	BTC	Buy	76997.8→77590.1	+3.36	timeout
05-21 10:57	BTC	Buy	77966.9→77216.1	-5.30	timeout
05-21 02:56	BTC	Buy	77438.9→77963.1	+2.91	timeout
05-20 15:55	BTC	Buy	77261.9→77460.1	+0.79	timeout
05-20 07:54	BTC	Buy	76828.8→77238.1	+2.17	timeout
05-19 23:54	BTC	Buy	76515.8→76843.2	+1.64	timeout
05-19 15:45	BTC	Buy	77229.9→76482.2	-5.33	timeout
05-18 21:36	BTC	Buy	76935.8→77078.1	+0.44	timeout
05-16 14:01	BTC	Buy	79002.9→78999	-0.51	timeout
05-16 06:01	BTC	Buy	78987.9→78995.1	-0.39	timeout
05-15 21:40	BTC	Buy	79278→79043	-1.91	timeout
05-12 06:43	BTC	Buy	81724.1→81715.9	-0.52	timeout
05-11 21:38	BTC	Buy	80728→81642.9	+5.21	timeout
05-08 00:05	BTC	Buy	79902→80017	+0.24	timeout
05-01 19:31	BTC	Buy	77388.9→78314.1	+5.55	timeout
05-01 11:31	BTC	Buy	77157.9→77381.1	+0.99	timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)

closed

41%

win rate

-99.44

total pnl ($)

-24.6 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
BTC	80	41%	-24.6	-99.44

Recent bounces (last 20 of 3)

time	sym	side	reason
06-26 12:27	BTC	Buy	stale_intent
06-25 17:41	BTC	Buy	below_min_notional_skip
06-24 08:36	BTC	Buy	stale_intent

Postmortem feed (last 10)

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
05-08 00:05	BTC	Buy	+0.24	The market was in a mild downtrend with BTC declining 1.58% over 24 hours and negative momentum across the week. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout without reaching its target or stop, as the persistent bearish bias prevented any prof…
05-01 19:31	BTC	Buy	+5.55	# Trade Analysis: BTC Long (MSTR Premium Compression) BTC traded sideways at $78,318 with modest 1-hour weakness (-0.24%) despite positive 24h momentum (+2.46%), while funding rates turned slightly negative (-0.39%) signaling cooling leverage demand. The t…
05-01 11:31	BTC	Buy	+0.99	Bitcoin was consolidating modestly with slight intraday gains (+0.09% 1h) while maintaining positive daily momentum (+1.66% 24h) in a high-dominance regime (84.9%), providing a stable backdrop for mean-reversion trades. The thesis partially worked—MSTR's co…

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