mstr_deribit_divergence_short

not live
8
closed trades
75%
win rate
+16.73
total pnl ($)
1.225
weight
7d window — n=1 wr=100% pnl=+2.33  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-19 03:20:35 (34.7d ago) · src: canon
verdict: PASS  ·  strict: STRICT-PASS  ·  batch: kc
n: 12  ·  wr: 58.3%  ·  total_bps: +66.2  ·  mean_bps: +5.52  ·  sharpe: +0.08  ·  max_dd_bps: -200.7
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 8 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-15 21:40BTCSell66777.7→66408.3+2.33timeout
06-08 21:15BTCSell64157.8→63710.2+3.05timeout
05-23 14:03BTCSell74547.3→75089.8-4.09timeout
05-15 14:02BTCSell80669→78875.9+10.66timeout
05-12 04:43BTCSell81715.9→81724.1-0.56timeout
05-05 00:01BTCSell80245→79758+2.54timeout
05-02 00:32BTCSell78458.1→78311.9+0.43timeout
05-01 20:15BTCSell78663.1→78215.9+2.37timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
8
closed
75%
win rate
+16.73
total pnl ($)
+42.2 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC875%+42.2+16.73

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-05 00:01BTCSell+2.54The market was in a tight consolidation phase with negligible momentum and neutral funding rates. The trade failed because the price never moved in the anticipated direction to trigger a profit or stop loss, resulting in an automatic exit due to the timeout…
05-02 00:32BTCSell+0.43The market was consolidating with mild upside drift (+2.40% over 24h) while BTC funding rates turned sharply negative (-0.014578%), signaling that leveraged longs were being liquidated as institutions reduced exposure. The trade's thesis failed because the …
05-01 20:15BTCSell+2.37Bitcoin drifted lower in the hour before close (-0.36% 1h), eroding the carry on the short position despite positive 24h momentum (+2.13%), while funding rates remained slightly negative at -0.49%. The trade's divergence thesis partially broke down: MSTR re…