mempool_surge_fear_short · strategy

148

closed trades

44%

win rate

-76.89

total pnl ($)

0.615

weight

7d window — n=43 wr=40% pnl=-48.29 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-22 04:14:39 (30.9d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: atr

n: 17 · wr: 58.8% · total_bps: -7.5 · mean_bps: -0.44 · sharpe: -0.01 · max_dd_bps: -182.7

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)

Last 100 trades

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-22 01:51	BTC	Sell	64176.8→64600.2	-3.73	timeout
06-22 01:25	BTC	Sell	63334.8→64514.5	-9.76	stop_loss
06-21 21:46	BTC	Sell	64251.8→63821.2	+2.90	timeout
06-21 17:32	BTC	Sell	64223.8→64049.2	+0.89	timeout
06-21 13:24	BTC	Sell	64189.8→64127.2	+0.02	timeout
06-21 09:23	BTC	Sell	64386.8→63988.2	+2.68	timeout
06-21 05:17	BTC	Sell	64247.8→64208.2	-0.14	timeout
06-21 01:21	BTC	Sell	63862.8→64225.2	-3.28	timeout
06-20 21:15	BTC	Sell	63981.8→63970.2	-0.36	timeout
06-20 17:06	BTC	Sell	63605.8→63893.2	-2.70	timeout
06-20 13:04	BTC	Sell	63632.8→63595.2	-0.14	timeout
06-20 09:01	BTC	Sell	63302.8→63397.2	-1.17	timeout
06-20 04:56	BTC	Sell	63317.8→63546.2	-2.26	timeout
06-20 00:53	BTC	Sell	62990.9→63539.2	-4.81	timeout
06-19 20:47	BTC	Sell	63248.8→63194.2	-0.01	timeout
06-19 16:45	BTC	Sell	62398.9→63211.2	-6.97	timeout
06-19 12:40	BTC	Sell	62722.9→62511.1	+1.21	timeout
06-19 09:19	BTC	Sell	62351.9→62418.1	-1.02	timeout
06-19 05:13	BTC	Sell	62775.9→62648.1	+0.55	timeout
06-19 00:54	BTC	Sell	62720.9→62990.1	-2.62	timeout
06-18 21:26	BTC	Sell	63289.8→62965.1	+2.09	timeout
06-18 17:17	BTC	Sell	63996.8→62508.1	+11.12	timeout
06-18 13:08	BTC	Sell	64041.8→64377.2	-3.07	timeout
06-18 09:02	BTC	Sell	64528.8→64299.2	+1.35	timeout
06-18 04:55	BTC	Sell	64355.8→63894.2	+3.14	timeout
06-18 01:11	BTC	Sell	65075.7→64758.2	+2.01	timeout
06-17 16:28	BTC	Sell	65078.7→66296.4	-9.80	stop_loss
06-17 16:16	BTC	Sell	64746.8→65955.3	-9.77	stop_loss
06-17 13:04	BTC	Sell	65564.7→64990.2	+3.94	timeout
06-17 08:55	BTC	Sell	65826.7→64885.2	+6.71	timeout
06-17 05:00	BTC	Sell	65755.7→65870.3	-1.31	timeout
06-17 00:56	BTC	Sell	65848.7→65726.3	+0.49	timeout
06-16 20:45	BTC	Sell	65659.7→65825.3	-1.69	timeout
06-16 16:47	BTC	Sell	66568.7→65758.3	+5.66	timeout
06-16 12:36	BTC	Sell	66327.7→66686.3	-3.13	timeout
06-16 08:24	BTC	Sell	66012.7→66443.3	-3.71	timeout
06-16 04:13	BTC	Sell	66350.7→66119.3	+1.28	timeout
06-16 00:02	BTC	Sell	66822.7→66253.3	+3.80	timeout
06-15 20:02	BTC	Sell	66290.7→66604.3	-2.80	timeout
06-15 13:16	BTC	Sell	65535.7→66760.7	-9.80	stop_loss
06-15 11:45	BTC	Sell	65698.7→66126.3	-3.71	timeout
06-15 07:34	BTC	Sell	65431.7→65756.3	-2.93	timeout
06-15 03:30	BTC	Sell	64792.8→65702.3	-7.46	timeout
06-14 21:40	BTC	Sell	63925.8→65116.8	-9.76	stop_loss
06-14 19:19	BTC	Sell	64331.8→63834.2	+3.43	timeout
06-14 15:10	BTC	Sell	64429.8→64094.2	+2.16	timeout
06-14 11:03	BTC	Sell	64352.8→64464.2	-1.31	timeout
06-14 07:03	BTC	Sell	64484.8→64261.2	+1.28	timeout
06-14 02:59	BTC	Sell	64260.8→64474.2	-2.12	timeout
06-13 22:54	BTC	Sell	63980.8→64438.2	-4.02	timeout
06-13 18:53	BTC	Sell	64071.8→64086.2	-0.56	timeout
06-13 14:48	BTC	Sell	63839.8→64195.2	-3.22	timeout
06-13 10:45	BTC	Sell	63582.8→63841.2	-2.46	timeout
06-13 06:40	BTC	Sell	63595.8→63665.2	-0.99	timeout
06-13 02:42	BTC	Sell	63529.8→63669.2	-1.55	timeout
06-12 22:44	BTC	Sell	63833.8→63493.2	+2.23	timeout
06-12 18:35	BTC	Sell	63489.8→63731.2	-2.35	timeout
06-12 14:30	BTC	Sell	63502.8→63611.2	-1.29	timeout
06-12 10:23	BTC	Sell	63696.8→63744.2	-0.80	timeout
06-12 06:18	BTC	Sell	63609.8→63159.2	+3.11	timeout
06-12 02:14	BTC	Sell	63509.8→63644.2	-1.48	timeout
06-11 22:19	BTC	Sell	62785.9→63621.2	-7.07	timeout
06-11 18:19	BTC	Sell	63128.8→63491.2	-3.29	timeout
06-11 14:12	BTC	Sell	62769.9→62845.1	-1.02	timeout
06-11 10:07	BTC	Sell	62561.9→62935.1	-3.40	timeout
06-11 03:55	BTC	Sell	61489.9→62646.4	-9.83	stop_loss
06-11 01:55	BTC	Sell	61929.9→62158.1	-2.29	timeout
06-10 21:53	BTC	Sell	62630.9→61197.1	+11.00	timeout
06-10 13:50	BTC	Sell	61673.9→62365.1	-6.05	timeout
06-10 13:37	BTC	Sell	61008.9→62148.2	-9.79	stop_loss
06-10 01:15	BTC	Sell	61755.9→62023.1	-2.63	timeout
06-09 21:11	BTC	Sell	61621.9→62023.1	-3.72	timeout
06-09 17:08	BTC	Sell	62632.9→61444.1	+9.05	timeout
06-09 13:08	BTC	Sell	63391.8→62622.1	+5.61	timeout
06-09 09:06	BTC	Sell	62841.9→62820.1	-0.27	timeout
06-09 05:01	BTC	Sell	63454.8→63196.2	+1.59	timeout
06-09 00:57	BTC	Sell	63456.8→62520.1	+6.94	timeout
06-08 20:51	BTC	Sell	63895.8→63379.2	+3.60	timeout
06-08 16:49	BTC	Sell	63133.8→63586.2	-4.01	timeout
06-08 12:46	BTC	Sell	62946.9→63586.2	-5.53	timeout
06-08 08:46	BTC	Sell	63019.8→63138.2	-1.37	timeout
06-08 04:41	BTC	Sell	63160.8→62716.1	+3.07	timeout
06-07 22:14	BTC	Sell	62175.9→63334.8	-9.77	stop_loss
06-07 20:36	BTC	Sell	62256.9→61707.1	+3.96	timeout
06-07 16:31	BTC	Sell	62511.9→62232.1	+1.81	timeout
06-07 12:28	BTC	Sell	61922.9→62015.1	-1.19	timeout
06-07 07:56	BTC	Sell	61204.9→62344.3	-9.76	stop_loss
06-07 04:21	BTC	Sell	60691→61584.1	-7.81	timeout
06-07 00:22	BTC	Sell	60503→60827	-3.12	timeout
06-06 20:15	BTC	Sell	60892→60553	+2.31	timeout
06-06 16:16	BTC	Sell	60676→60768	-1.21	timeout
06-06 12:14	BTC	Sell	61136.9→61022.1	+0.47	timeout
06-06 08:13	BTC	Sell	60889→61115.1	-2.28	timeout
06-06 04:11	BTC	Sell	61311.9→60363	+7.29	timeout
06-05 20:50	BTC	Sell	60671→61801	-9.76	stop_loss
06-05 20:22	BTC	Sell	60646→60867	-2.27	timeout
06-05 14:04	BTC	Sell	62625.9→60626	+15.52	take_profit
06-05 08:41	BTC	Sell	62845.9→62593.1	+1.55	timeout
06-05 07:33	BTC	Sell	61370.9→62513.4	-9.76	stop_loss
06-05 04:26	BTC	Sell	63271.8→63121.2	+0.73	timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)

148

closed

44%

win rate

-76.89

total pnl ($)

-10.6 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
BTC	148	44%	-10.6	-76.89

Recent bounces (last 20 of 1)

time	sym	side	reason
06-22 00:03	BTC	Sell	stale_intent

Postmortem feed (last 10)

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
no postmortems

More…