mempool_fee_spike_fear_contrarian_long_v3

53

closed trades

43%

win rate

-171.71

total pnl ($)

0.801

weight

7d window — n=12 wr=25% pnl=-71.10 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-27 02:13:12 (31.5d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: x2189873_30613

n: 58 · wr: 41.4% · total_bps: -1769.7 · mean_bps: -30.51 · sharpe: -0.14 · max_dd_bps: -3399.9

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-27 01:13	BTC	Buy	59573→59948	+2.68	timeout
06-25 13:48	BTC	Buy	60874→59377.3	-12.68	stop_loss
06-25 13:46	BTC	Buy	61146.1→59642.2	-12.74	stop_loss
06-24 14:19	BTC	Buy	62452.1→60880.5	-13.02	stop_loss
06-24 14:13	BTC	Buy	62637.1→61095.4	-12.72	stop_loss
06-24 08:14	BTC	Buy	62620.1→62622.9	-0.50	timeout
06-23 06:21	BTC	Buy	64245.2→62665.5	-12.77	stop_loss
06-23 06:20	BTC	Buy	64460.2→62874.4	-12.76	stop_loss
06-22 11:02	BTC	Buy	64425.2→64098.8	-3.12	timeout
06-21 21:24	BTC	Buy	63926.2→63650.8	-2.61	timeout
06-21 09:22	BTC	Buy	63526.2→63982.8	+3.01	timeout
06-20 19:52	BTC	Buy	63075.2→63901.8	+6.13	timeout
06-20 07:49	BTC	Buy	62508.1→63690.8	+8.86	timeout
06-19 17:42	BTC	Buy	62576.1→63040.8	+3.26	timeout
06-18 15:57	BTC	Buy	63892.2→62319.7	-12.58	stop_loss
06-17 19:42	BTC	Buy	65701.3→64085.7	-12.75	stop_loss
06-17 19:40	BTC	Buy	65797.3→64176.7	-12.78	stop_loss
06-17 11:02	BTC	Buy	66339.3→64707.4	-12.83	stop_loss
06-17 01:02	BTC	Buy	66264.3→65755.7	-4.35	timeout
06-16 10:58	BTC	Buy	65845.3→66479.7	+4.31	timeout
06-15 22:50	BTC	Buy	65425.3→66162.7	+5.14	timeout
06-15 10:13	BTC	Buy	64501.2→65722.7	+9.02	timeout
06-14 22:03	BTC	Buy	64397.2→65459.7	+7.75	timeout
06-14 10:02	BTC	Buy	63734.2→64577.8	+6.13	timeout
06-13 21:58	BTC	Buy	63461.2→64484.8	+7.59	timeout
06-13 09:21	BTC	Buy	63618.2→63827.8	+1.10	timeout
06-12 21:24	BTC	Buy	63513.2→63540.8	-0.26	timeout
06-12 09:07	BTC	Buy	62831.1→63513.8	+4.92	timeout
06-11 20:40	BTC	Buy	61828.1→63335.8	+11.60	timeout
06-11 08:29	BTC	Buy	61484.1→62915.9	+11.05	timeout
06-10 15:00	BTC	Buy	61467.1→62145.9	+5.03	timeout
06-09 14:47	BTC	Buy	62679.1→61137.4	-12.76	stop_loss
06-09 13:41	BTC	Buy	63493.2→62241.9	-10.29	timeout
06-09 01:35	BTC	Buy	62998.1→62843.9	-1.67	timeout
06-08 12:13	BTC	Buy	62144.1→62967.9	+6.17	timeout
06-07 21:49	BTC	Buy	60813→61713.9	+6.97	timeout
06-07 09:41	BTC	Buy	61159.1→62500.9	+10.52	timeout
06-06 04:14	BTC	Buy	61588.1→60072.9	-12.76	stop_loss
06-05 13:49	BTC	Buy	63000.1→61451.2	-12.75	stop_loss
06-05 06:22	BTC	Buy	62845.1→61293.3	-12.74	stop_loss
06-05 06:16	BTC	Buy	63431.2→61871	-12.72	stop_loss
06-04 00:29	BTC	Buy	65049.3→63449.1	-12.75	stop_loss
06-03 20:55	BTC	Buy	66555.3→64908.3	-12.88	stop_loss
06-03 19:54	BTC	Buy	66994.3→65324.1	-12.95	stop_loss
06-02 14:10	BTC	Buy	69994.5→68271.4	-12.77	stop_loss
06-02 12:30	BTC	Buy	70914.5→69161.9	-12.87	stop_loss
06-01 15:32	BTC	Buy	73507.7→71299.8	-15.61	stop_loss
06-01 04:19	BTC	Buy	74111.7→73470.3	-4.84	timeout
05-31 10:15	BTC	Buy	73604.7→73813.3	+0.83	timeout
05-31 00:49	BTC	Buy	73499.7→73899.3	+2.23	timeout
05-30 07:09	BTC	Buy	73755.7→73498.3	-2.23	timeout
05-29 19:44	BTC	Buy	73414.7→73642.3	+1.04	timeout
05-29 06:54	BTC	Buy	73067.7→73736.3	+4.00	timeout

Paper (trades.jsonl)

53

closed

43%

win rate

-171.71

total pnl ($)

-64.1 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

0

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
BTC	53	43%	-64.1	-171.71

time	sym	side	reason
no bounces recorded

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
no postmortems

More…

Cumulative P&L (last 53 closed)

Last 100 trades

Paper vs Live

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

Postmortem feed (last 10)