49
closed trades
43%
win rate
-0.34
total pnl ($)
1.151
weight
7d window — n=8 wr=25% pnl=-10.64
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-18 16:48:21 (39.1d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
agk
n: 97
· wr: 36.1%
· total_bps: -2087.7
· mean_bps: -21.52
· sharpe: -0.25
· max_dd_bps: -2531.5
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 49 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 07:23 | BTC | Sell | 60112→60530 | -1.96 | timeout |
| 06-25 07:24 | BTC | Sell | 60971→61807.1 | -3.66 | timeout |
| 06-24 07:20 | BTC | Sell | 62533.9→62688.1 | -0.83 | timeout |
| 06-23 07:29 | BTC | Sell | 64027.8→62978.1 | +3.88 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:26 | BTC | Sell | 63394.8→64585.5 | -4.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 07:30 | BTC | Sell | 64254.8→64141.2 | +0.22 | timeout |
| 06-21 00:30 | BTC | Sell | 63956.8→64240.2 | -1.33 | timeout |
| 06-20 07:28 | BTC | Sell | 63268.8→63725.2 | -2.03 | timeout |
| 06-19 07:28 | BTC | Sell | 62813.9→62747.1 | +0.03 | timeout |
| 06-18 07:28 | BTC | Sell | 64455.8→64283.2 | +0.43 | timeout |
| 06-18 00:36 | BTC | Sell | 65977.7→64553.2 | +5.19 | timeout |
| 06-17 07:28 | BTC | Sell | 65697.7→65525.3 | +0.44 | timeout |
| 06-16 07:27 | BTC | Sell | 66178.7→66332.3 | -0.82 | timeout |
| 06-15 07:33 | BTC | Sell | 65539.7→65766.3 | -1.09 | timeout |
| 06-14 07:26 | BTC | Sell | 64441.8→64348.2 | +0.14 | timeout |
| 06-13 07:21 | BTC | Sell | 63418.8→63713.2 | -1.38 | timeout |
| 06-12 07:31 | BTC | Sell | 63367.8→63001.1 | +1.23 | timeout |
| 06-11 03:55 | BTC | Sell | 61426.9→62573.4 | -4.88 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 22:04 | BTC | Sell | 62156.9→62023.1 | +0.30 | timeout |
| 06-08 07:30 | BTC | Sell | 63274.8→63199.2 | +0.08 | timeout |
| 06-07 04:42 | BTC | Sell | 60685→61816 | -4.89 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 06:21 | BTC | Sell | 63627.8→61596.1 | +7.75 | take_profit |
| 06-04 01:55 | BTC | Sell | 64259.8→62209.1 | +7.75 | take_profit |
| 06-03 07:41 | BTC | Sell | 66524.7→67156.4 | -2.58 | timeout |
| 06-02 07:39 | BTC | Sell | 71522.4→70177.5 | +4.50 | timeout |
| 05-31 07:43 | BTC | Sell | 73771.3→73834.7 | -0.41 | timeout |
| 05-30 07:40 | BTC | Sell | 73335.3→73455.7 | -0.63 | timeout |
| 05-29 07:32 | BTC | Sell | 73659.3→73571.7 | +0.09 | timeout |
| 05-28 07:26 | BTC | Sell | 74237.3→73243.7 | +3.13 | timeout |
| 05-28 00:56 | BTC | Sell | 75268.2→74452.7 | +2.48 | timeout |
| 05-27 07:26 | BTC | Sell | 75833.2→75805.8 | -0.16 | timeout |
| 05-26 07:35 | BTC | Sell | 77282.1→76618.8 | +1.92 | timeout |
| 05-25 07:23 | BTC | Sell | 76844.2→77214.9 | -1.41 | timeout |
| 05-24 07:32 | BTC | Sell | 76677.2→76829.8 | -0.71 | timeout |
| 05-23 07:32 | BTC | Sell | 75654.2→75157.8 | +1.42 | timeout |
| 05-22 07:30 | BTC | Sell | 77603.1→77494.9 | +0.13 | timeout |
| 05-21 07:59 | BTC | Sell | 77524.1→77856.9 | -1.29 | timeout |
| 05-21 00:27 | BTC | Sell | 77164.1→77694.9 | -1.93 | timeout |
| 05-20 07:37 | BTC | Sell | 76916.2→77318.9 | -1.51 | timeout |
| 05-19 07:38 | BTC | Sell | 77010.1→77146.9 | -0.66 | timeout |
| 05-16 07:35 | BTC | Sell | 79069→79073 | -0.22 | timeout |
| 05-12 06:43 | BTC | Sell | 81715.9→81724.1 | -0.25 | timeout |
| 05-12 01:04 | BTC | Sell | 81431.9→81724.1 | -1.12 | timeout |
| 05-11 07:35 | BTC | Sell | 82155.9→80720 | +4.16 | timeout |
| 05-10 19:37 | BTC | Sell | 80794→81385.1 | -2.04 | timeout |
| 05-10 13:36 | BTC | Sell | 80723→80976 | -1.00 | timeout |
| 05-10 07:36 | BTC | Sell | 80630→80739 | -0.56 | timeout |
| 05-10 01:33 | BTC | Sell | 80789→80592 | +0.38 | timeout |
| 05-09 19:34 | BTC | Sell | 80289→80764 | -1.71 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
49
closed
43%
win rate
-0.34
total pnl ($)
-0.5 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 49 | 43% | -0.5 | -0.34 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-10 07:36 | BTC | Sell | -0.56 | The market was in a neutral to slightly bearish regime with negative funding and moderate open interest, but lacked a clear directional catalyst. The thesis failed because the trade was closed due to a timeout, indicating the anticipated move did not materi… |
| 05-10 01:33 | BTC | Sell | +0.38 | BTC traded in a narrow range with mild positive momentum across timeframes. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected move materialized in the low-volatility regime. |
| 05-09 19:34 | BTC | Sell | -1.71 | BTC was trading in a narrow, low-volatility range with mixed short-term momentum and neutral funding. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout without reaching a target or stop, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize w… |