l2_capital_flight_eth_short

not live
28
closed trades
54%
win rate
+158.34
total pnl ($)
1.085
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-20 03:56:47 (33.0d ago) · src: canon
verdict: PASS  ·  strict: STRICT-PASS  ·  batch: mk
n: 6  ·  wr: 66.7%  ·  total_bps: +827.8  ·  mean_bps: +137.97  ·  sharpe: +0.39  ·  max_dd_bps: -537.3
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 28 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-11 17:32ETHSell1637.74→1678.91-12.92stop_loss
06-10 22:23ETHSell1674.93→1608.56+19.03timeout
06-07 08:56ETHSell1598.84→1638.38-12.82stop_loss
06-07 08:46ETHSell1592.04→1631.68-12.89stop_loss
06-07 06:25ETHSell1571.34→1610.27-12.97stop_loss
06-06 04:31ETHSell1593.74→1523.85+21.43take_profit
06-06 04:31ETHSell1594.04→1524.15+21.33take_profit
06-06 04:31ETHSell1595.14→1525.25+21.32take_profit
06-05 15:12ETHSell1653.63→1581.16+21.45take_profit
06-05 14:06ETHSell1663.93→1590.96+21.45take_profit
06-05 14:04ETHSell1678.83→1605.26+21.44take_profit
06-05 09:13ETHSell1640.84→1681.51-12.85stop_loss
06-05 05:45ETHSell1772.82→1695.07+21.43take_profit
06-05 05:45ETHSell1774.52→1696.47+21.46take_profit
06-05 05:43ETHSell1775.82→1697.87+21.45take_profit
06-05 05:43ETHSell1777.32→1699.37+21.42take_profit
06-05 05:41ETHSell1780.92→1702.87+21.43take_profit
06-03 21:48ETHSell1797.82→1842.4-12.85stop_loss
06-03 20:55ETHSell1851.91→1770.78+21.43take_profit
06-03 10:08ETHSell1845.12→1890.83-12.81stop_loss
04-27 15:04ETHSell2364.2→2293.2+14.57take_profit
04-27 15:04ETHSell2363.8→2292.8+14.57take_profit
04-27 01:01ETHSell2359.3→2401.8-9.46stop_loss
04-26 18:12ETHSell2320.5→2362.3-9.46stop_loss
04-26 18:12ETHSell2317.8→2359.6-9.47stop_loss
04-26 18:12ETHSell2317.8→2359.6-9.47stop_loss
04-26 18:12ETHSell2315.3→2357-9.46stop_loss
04-26 18:12ETHSell2313.8→2355.5-9.46stop_loss

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
28
closed
54%
win rate
+158.34
total pnl ($)
+113.8 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
ETH2854%+113.8+158.34

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
04-27 15:04ETHSell+14.57# Trade Analysis: L2 Capital Flight ETH Short ETH was trading sideways-to-slightly-down at $2298 (1h: -0.63%, 24h: -2.08%) with negative funding rates (-0.00332%) suggesting weakening long positioning, consistent with the broader market's mild bearish bias…
04-27 15:04ETHSell+14.57# Trade Analysis: L2 Capital Flight ETH Short **Market Context at Close:** ETH was declining modestly (-0.63% in the 1h, -2.08% in the 24h) as Bitcoin consolidated around $77.5k with mild weakness, while funding rates turned slightly negative, indicating r…
04-27 01:01ETHSell-9.46Ethereum was rallying modestly with a 2.78% 24-hour gain and positive 1-hour momentum of 0.59%, while Bitcoin showed similar strength with a 1.75% daily increase. The L2 capital flight short thesis failed because despite the -11.2% TVL decline and -$218.5M …
04-26 18:12ETHSell-9.46At close, ETH was trading at $2,363.49 with modest positive momentum across timeframes (1h +0.73%, 24h +2.27%, 7d +2.19%), while BTC showed stronger strength particularly over the week (+3.59%), signaling broad market resilience. The thesis failed because t…
04-26 18:12ETHSell-9.47ETH was trading sideways to slightly positive at $2,363.49 with modest 24-hour gains of 2.27%, showing relative stability rather than the sharper decline needed to validate the short thesis. The trade's L2 capital flight signal (-16% TVL, -$322.4M netflow) …
04-26 18:12ETHSell-9.47At close, ETH was trading at $2363.49 with modest positive momentum across timeframes (0.73% in 1h, 2.27% in 24h) while Bitcoin showed slightly stronger gains of 3.59% over 7 days. The L2 capital flight thesis failed because the $321.8M TVL decline signal d…
04-26 18:12ETHSell-9.46At close, ETH was consolidating near $2363 with modest positive momentum across 1h (0.73%), 24h (2.27%), and 7d (2.19%) timeframes, while BTC showed broader strength with 3.59% weekly gains. The short thesis failed because the L2 capital flight signal (-15.…
04-26 18:12ETHSell-9.46ETH was in a mild uptrend at close with positive 1h/24h/7d returns of 0.73%, 2.27%, and 2.19% respectively, while BTC showed broader strength up 3.59% over 7 days. The short thesis failed because the L2 capital flight signal (-15.9% TVL, -$321.8M netflow) d…