implied_volatility_momentum_confirmation

not live
41
closed trades
46%
win rate
-9.63
total pnl ($)
1.225
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-20 06:28:57 (38.5d ago) · src: canon
verdict: PASS  ·  strict: STRICT-PASS  ·  batch: qb__restored_56c030af
n: 36  ·  wr: 55.6%  ·  total_bps: +1283.5  ·  mean_bps: +35.65  ·  sharpe: +0.26  ·  max_dd_bps: -464.4
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 41 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-17 23:43BTCBuy64770.2→64391.8-3.41timeout
06-17 19:29BTCBuy66042.3→64414.6-12.77stop_loss
06-17 17:50BTCBuy65837.3→65812.7-0.67timeout
06-17 11:39BTCBuy65740.3→64737.8-8.10timeout
06-17 05:20BTCBuy65770.3→65741.7-0.68timeout
06-16 23:06BTCBuy66513.3→65766.7-6.10timeout
06-16 17:03BTCBuy65944.3→65735.7-2.07timeout
06-16 10:54BTCBuy66208.3→66558.7+2.15timeout
06-16 04:29BTCBuy67123.4→65994.7-8.83timeout
06-15 22:16BTCBuy65710.3→66332.7+4.26timeout
06-15 16:06BTCBuy65782.3→67130.6+9.77timeout
06-15 10:04BTCBuy65334.3→65612.7+1.68timeout
06-15 03:59BTCBuy64000.2→65882.7+14.24timeout
06-14 21:53BTCBuy64596.2→65422.7+5.92timeout
06-14 15:45BTCBuy64464.2→63973.8-4.29timeout
06-14 09:38BTCBuy64295.2→64435.8+0.62timeout
06-14 03:24BTCBuy64278.2→64508.8+1.36timeout
06-13 21:19BTCBuy63804.2→64233.8+2.90timeout
06-13 15:10BTCBuy63696.2→64205.8+3.53timeout
06-13 09:09BTCBuy63540.2→63787.8+1.45timeout
06-13 03:04BTCBuy63933.2→63656.8-2.61timeout
06-12 20:58BTCBuy63443.2→63434.8-0.53timeout
06-12 15:07BTCBuy63570.2→64118.8+3.82timeout
06-12 09:16BTCBuy63508.2→63544.8-0.20timeout
06-12 03:17BTCBuy62659.1→63484.8+6.09timeout
06-11 21:07BTCBuy62831.1→63448.8+4.39timeout
05-26 23:44BTCBuy77195.9→75919.2-8.73timeout
05-26 17:43BTCBuy76859.8→75983.2-6.18timeout
05-26 11:43BTCBuy77314.9→77194.1-1.24timeout
05-26 05:43BTCBuy77539.9→76834.2-5.00timeout
05-25 23:43BTCBuy77447.9→77307.1-1.39timeout
05-25 17:41BTCBuy77411.9→77541.1+0.31timeout
05-25 11:42BTCBuy77100.9→77439.1+1.69timeout
05-25 04:50BTCBuy76541.8→77233.1+4.03timeout
05-24 21:15BTCBuy76871.8→76657.2-1.86timeout
05-24 15:14BTCBuy76876.8→76442.2-3.29timeout
05-24 09:14BTCBuy76941.8→76866.2-1.02timeout
05-02 18:03BTCBuy78202.9→78316.1+0.29timeout
05-02 12:02BTCBuy78212.9→78087.1-1.24timeout
05-02 06:01BTCBuy78519.9→78177.1-2.59timeout
05-02 00:00BTCBuy77428.9→78202.1+4.64timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
41
closed
46%
win rate
-9.63
total pnl ($)
-4.3 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC4146%-4.3-9.63

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-02 18:03BTCBuy+0.29# Trade Analysis: implied_volatility_momentum_confirmation (BTC, 12h hold) At close, Bitcoin was consolidating near $78,331 with negligible intraday momentum (1h=-0.09%, 24h=-0.23%) and neutral funding rates (-0.001878%), reflecting a low-conviction market…
05-02 12:02BTCBuy-1.24At close, Bitcoin was in a choppy consolidation phase with minimal directional momentum (1h=-0.05%, 24h=+0.91%), while funding rates had turned slightly negative (-0.002153%), signaling weakening leverage demand. The thesis failed because the IV calm signal…
05-02 06:01BTCBuy-2.59# Trade Analysis: BTC IV Momentum Confirmation BTC was consolidating sideways with minimal intraday momentum (1h=+0.11%, 24h=+1.47%) when the position timed out after 12 hours, while funding rates remained negative (-0.005556%), indicating persistent short…
05-02 00:00BTCBuy+4.64Bitcoin drifted sideways in low-volatility consolidation, gaining 2.37% over 24 hours and 1.02% over 7 days, while funding rates turned slightly negative (-0.014%) and IV remained suppressed at 38.2% despite the 7-day average at 40.2%. The thesis—that a del…