35
closed trades
46%
win rate
+9.98
total pnl ($)
1.259
weight
7d window — n=3 wr=67% pnl=+4.92
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-20 03:08:27 (38.8d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
acj
n: 23
· wr: 43.5%
· total_bps: +57.2
· mean_bps: +2.49
· sharpe: +0.02
· max_dd_bps: -694.2
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 35 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 00:17 | BTC | Sell | 64689.8→63925.2 | +5.46 | timeout |
| 06-22 00:03 | BTC | Sell | 64090.8→63374.2 | +5.18 | timeout |
| 06-20 23:09 | BTC | Sell | 63594.8→64267.2 | -5.71 | timeout |
| 06-19 21:44 | BTC | Sell | 62401.9→63087.2 | -5.92 | timeout |
| 06-18 23:00 | BTC | Sell | 64077.8→62849.1 | +9.10 | timeout |
| 06-17 22:43 | BTC | Sell | 64884.8→64363.2 | +3.57 | timeout |
| 06-16 22:21 | BTC | Sell | 66695.7→65766.3 | +6.56 | timeout |
| 06-15 15:47 | BTC | Sell | 65502.7→67115.9 | -12.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 21:34 | BTC | Sell | 64424.8→64931.2 | -4.36 | timeout |
| 06-13 21:11 | BTC | Sell | 63764.8→64258.2 | -4.31 | timeout |
| 06-12 21:04 | BTC | Sell | 63407.8→63434.2 | -0.65 | timeout |
| 06-11 21:13 | BTC | Sell | 62812.9→63571.2 | -6.41 | timeout |
| 06-10 15:54 | BTC | Sell | 61224.9→62733.5 | -12.76 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 21:00 | BTC | Sell | 62811.9→62023.1 | +5.80 | timeout |
| 06-08 20:55 | BTC | Sell | 63028.8→63402.2 | -3.39 | timeout |
| 06-07 20:51 | BTC | Sell | 62760.9→61915.1 | +6.28 | timeout |
| 06-06 20:47 | BTC | Sell | 61350.9→60684 | +4.95 | timeout |
| 06-05 16:12 | BTC | Sell | 62489.9→59745 | +21.49 | take_profit |
| 05-28 21:45 | BTC | Sell | 73471.3→73844.7 | -2.92 | timeout |
| 05-27 21:38 | BTC | Sell | 75908.2→74915.7 | +6.13 | timeout |
| 05-26 21:38 | BTC | Sell | 76646.2→75992.8 | +3.84 | timeout |
| 05-18 08:15 | BTC | Sell | 78308.1→76987.8 | +8.02 | timeout |
| 05-17 08:15 | BTC | Sell | 78257.1→78118.9 | +0.44 | timeout |
| 05-16 01:19 | BTC | Sell | 80089→79067 | +5.92 | timeout |
| 05-12 10:43 | BTC | Sell | 81715.9→81724.1 | -0.47 | timeout |
| 05-12 01:18 | BTC | Sell | 81267.9→81724.1 | -3.24 | timeout |
| 05-11 01:20 | BTC | Sell | 80905→81615.1 | -4.77 | timeout |
| 05-10 01:19 | BTC | Sell | 80352→80607 | -2.05 | timeout |
| 05-09 01:17 | BTC | Sell | 79762→80286 | -3.78 | timeout |
| 05-08 01:17 | BTC | Sell | 80907→79661 | +7.28 | timeout |
| 05-07 01:18 | BTC | Sell | 82088.9→81080.1 | +5.67 | timeout |
| 05-04 23:03 | BTC | Sell | 78930.1→79904 | -6.67 | timeout |
| 05-03 23:02 | BTC | Sell | 78361.1→79198 | -5.72 | timeout |
| 05-02 23:01 | BTC | Sell | 78143.1→78713.9 | -4.09 | timeout |
| 05-01 23:02 | BTC | Sell | 77280.1→78083.9 | -5.71 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
35
closed
46%
win rate
+9.98
total pnl ($)
+5.5 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 35 | 46% | +5.5 | +9.98 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-10 01:19 | BTC | Sell | -2.05 | BTC was in a mild uptrend across hourly and daily timeframes with neutral funding. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected reversal materialized, as the market continued grinding higher. |
| 05-09 01:17 | BTC | Sell | -3.78 | BTC was trading in a narrow range with low volatility, showing a slight 1-hour gain but a broader weekly decline. The sell thesis failed because the market did not move decisively within the time limit, leading to a timeout without a favorable price drop. |
| 05-08 01:17 | BTC | Sell | +7.28 | The market was in a low-funding, sideways regime with stable open interest, offering no strong directional bias. The thesis failed because the trade expired via timeout without hitting any target or stop, as the lack of volatility prevented the short from r… |
| 05-07 01:18 | BTC | Sell | +5.67 | BTC traded in a narrow range with low volatility, showing a slight hourly gain but a weekly decline. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the allotted time. |
| 05-04 23:03 | BTC | Sell | -6.67 | The market was in a neutral consolidation phase with flat funding rates and low volatility as Bitcoin hovered near $80,278. The trade failed because the initial sell thesis lacked immediate confirmation, resulting in a forced exit due to the timeout limit b… |
| 05-02 23:01 | BTC | Sell | -4.09 | # Trade Analysis: governance-drought-1777719707 Bitcoin was consolidating in a tight range around $78.7k with minimal intraday volatility (1h=+0.13%) and modest weekly gains (+1.57%), offering little directional conviction to sustain a short thesis. The go… |
| 05-01 23:02 | BTC | Sell | -5.71 | # Trade Analysis: governance_snapshot_proposal_drought_ecosystem_short Bitcoin was consolidating near $78,142 with modest positive momentum (2.45% over 24h, 1.01% over 7d) and slightly negative hourly momentum (-0.14%), while funding rates remained deeply … |